Use promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Comeback: Indianapolis Colts WR T.Y. Hilton
It seems like forever since T.Y. Hilton has had a major fantasy impact, but in 2018 Hilton caught 76 passes for 1,270 yards and 6 TDs. Last year was an aberration for him as he dealt with a calf injury for the better part of the season and only played in 10 games catching a mere 45 passes. Compounding the issue was that Hilton (and all of the Colts) went from playing with Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett. No knock on Brissett, but Luck is a once in a generational-type talent while Brissett struggled mightily with his consistency.
In 2020, the Colts have fixed their quarterback issues, signing ex-Charger Philip Rivers to lead the team in 2020 and beyond. Rivers is a future hall-of-fame player who can make all the throws necessary for the Colts to compete at the highest level. What does this mean for Hilton? It means that he will see a ton of targets as the team’s WR1 from a quarterback who knows how to hit him in stride and give him the greatest opportunity to rack up the yards after the catch.
Some naysayers will point to the Colts’ drafting of Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman in the second round of the last two drafts as a reason to not draft Hilton. This might prove to be a very costly fantasy error. Campbell was injured for his rookie campaign, and Pittman has not had an opportunity to work out with the team due to the pandemic. This should leave Hilton as the clear recipient of the target share and as someone who fantasy players can draft to help them win a fantasy championship.
The NFL opened an investigation into Brown after a lawsuit was filed by his former trainer Britney Taylor alleging he sexually assaulted her on multiple occasions. In Septemeber 2019, Sports Illustrated released a story including a second account of sexual misconduct involving Brown. Brown med with the NFL in November as part of the investigation, and he has denied the accusations.
In June, Brown pled no contest to charges related to a moving truck battery case from earlier this year. In the alleged incident, Brown was accused of refusing to pay a $4,000 moving fee for a company that was delivering his items to Florida from his California home. The driver claimed Brown threw a rock at the moving truck and assaulted him.
The NFL said Brown was directed to continue his program of counseling and treatment as part of the discipline. The league also advised the 32-year-old that any future violations of the personal conduct policy "will likely result in more significant discipline."
Brown missed most of the 2019 season after New England released him in September, and he has repeatedly stated his desire to return to the NFL. Now, he will miss half of the 2020 season under the suspension.
America's Team, which is worth $5.5 billion, tops the list for the fifth straight year.
The New York Yankees ($5 billion) ranked second on the top-50 list, while the New York Knicks ($4.6 billion), Los Angeles Lakers ($4.4 billion) and Golden State Warriors ($4.3 billion) round out the top-five.
Three European soccer teams made the top-10, with Real Madrid ($4.24 billion) coming in sixth. The New England Patriots ($4.1 billion), Barcelona ($4.02 billion), the New York Giants ($3.9 billion) and Manchester United ($3.81 billion) hold the seventh-tenth spots.
Nine NBA teams and seven MLB teams landed on Forbes' list, while no NHL franchises appeared for the second consecutive year. Each of the 50 teams are worth at least $2.3 billion.
The NFL also remains king as far as value is concerned, with 27 of its 32 teams appearing on the list thanks to its high ticket sales and massive broadcasting deals. However, the league could see a drastic dip in revenue this season amid the coronavirus pandemic. In May, Forbes reported the NFL could lose $5.5 billion of stadium revenue if games are played without fans. Other leagues are also hurting financially during these uncertain times.
The franchise values are based on Forbes’ published valuations over the past 14 months.
Unlock premium access to the full outlook by subscribing to FullTime Fantasy where we will help you dominate with our Draft Kit, customized rankings, expert consensus rankings, Preseason Pro, Advanced ADP, Premium forums to ask our experts unlimited questions 24/7 & more. Check us out! Click here tosubscribe now using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Here are the results from the 25th through 36th ranked WR over the last two seasons:
WR 25 to 36 point totals (2018 – 2019)
WR3: Last year, the 25th thru 36th wide receivers averaged 189.86 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 11.87 fantasy points per week, which works out to be 64 catches for 839 yards and 5.9 TDs. The top four wide receivers in this group averaged 198.0 fantasy points.
FFWC Point Totals WR3 Observations
The quality of the WR3 rebounded last year after a sharp decline in 2017 (169.45) and a slight improvement in 2018 (178.53).
Wide receivers can be inconsistent from week-to-week. Many times touchdowns will determine their success. If a fantasy owner builds his team with too many weak wide receivers, he will have a challenging time getting his lineup right on Sunday. As you can see, as we maneuver our way through the wide receiver pool, they consistently outscore the RB position at the backend.
As I mentioned earlier, if a fantasy owner could draft three top WRs inside the first four rounds, you can see that it is possible to gain a five or six-point edge at the WR3 position if you can hit on the right group of wide receivers. By having three reliable wide receivers, your team may be slightly stronger during bye weeks while also have a chance to battle some short-term injuries. A team selecting a quarterback and tight end over the top five rounds will be under pressure to get their 2nd running backs and backend wide receivers right on draft day.
I’ll use a baseball comparison as I think it is easier to understand for fantasy owners that play multiple sports. A backup running back is like a closer in waiting. If they get full-time carries, running backs can turn into a top player and sometimes an elite player. They need the opportunity, but backup running backs tend to have minimal value without a job if needed to cover an injury or bye week.
Wide receivers are more like starting pitchers. It’s either they have talent, or they don’t. Each year a couple of wide receivers will break through, but what are the chances the draft breaks right for you to secure the right ones? If you went running back strong, do you need to hit one or two wide receivers? Maybe you even need three wide receivers to develop a competitive roster.
In the high-end leagues, your opponents will also know the player pool, which will make it tough to get out if you wait too long at the wide receiver position.
To read the rest, along with the complete list of WR1 & WR2 rankings, scoring targets & projections, subscribe now using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Unlock premium access to the full outlook by subscribing to FullTime Fantasy where we will help you dominate with our Draft Kit, customized rankings, expert consensus rankings, Preseason Pro, Advanced ADP, Premium forums to ask our experts unlimited questions 24/7 & more. Check us out! Click here tosubscribe now using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
As a high-stakes fantasy player, I have to admit I do not address the tight end position early in drafts unless a player like Travis Kelce falls to the fourth or fifth round (and that is not likely to happen). Fantasy owners who address the position early will be looking to grab stars like Kelce, George Kittle, or Zach Ertz early in drafts in 2020.
Many times even the best players at the position fail to live up to high draft capital needed to secure them in drafts. Let’s take a quick deeper dive.
Last season, San Francisco’s George Kittle (TE2), who put up over 220 PPR fantasy points, would have finished as the WR18 and out of the top-12 among all running backs. Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz (TE4) would have finished outside the top-20 in wide receiver rankings in PPR formats as well as beyond the top-15 among running backs. Those who stepped out early and drafted New York Giants Evan Engram (TE 18) or Tampa Bay’s O.J. Howard (TE29) among the top-10 at the position last summer, were burned when they failed to live up to expectations.
Successful fantasy owners should approach filling the position by often waiting until mid or late rounds. Tight ends in that range offer excellent value.
Now we get to the fun part: Which tight ends should you target in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts? My model has three players who fantasy owners should target this season. You may be surprised at who my projections are high on, but I can tell you that I am not high on either Austin Hooper or Rob Gronkowski in 2020.
Doyle, who is only a few seasons removed from a Pro Bowl campaign, currently stands further down than middle-round talent according to his ADP, but that offers even more value from a player who could emerge with top-10 production at the position.
As we learned from his time with the Chargers, Philip Rivers has a strong propensity to use his tight ends (Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry). They’re an integral feature in Frank Reich’s offense in Indianapolis. With Eric Ebron now in Pittsburgh playing for the Steelers, two other players who could emerge from the roster are Trey Burton (who has a history with Reich from time together in Philadelphia) and deep sleeper Xavier Gramble.
This is a situation worth monitoring in the next several weeks, but right now, Doyle at his current ADP is worth the roll of the dice to surpass the 72 targets from a year ago with Rivers now under center.
To check out the full list of value TE targets, subscribe now using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Philadelphia Eagles have three straight postseason appearances under head coach Doug Pederson, which includes a Super Bowl title in 2017. He pushed his career record to 38-26 while picking up four wins in six playoff chances. Over the previous three seasons, Pederson was the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. He worked under Chiefs head coach Andy Reid for eight years in Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Even with a winning record in 2018 and 2019, Philadelphia struggled to make an impact in points scored (367 – 18th and 385 – 12th) and in yards allowed (14th) in both years. Last year, the Eagles won their final four games to steal the NFC East division title from the Cowboys.
Philly won’t have an offensive coordinator in 2020, which leaves the responsibilities divided between three options – Press Taylor (passing game coordinator), Rich Scangarello (senior offensive assistant), and Matt Burke (run game coordinator).
Jim Schwartz will run the defense for the fifth straight season after taking a year off in 2015. Over five seasons as a head coach for the Lions, he went 29-51 with one playoff berth. He has 13 years of experience as a defensive coordinator. Schwartz helped the Eagles win the Super Bowl in 2017.
Last year Philadelphia improved to 10th in yards allowed and 15th in points against (35).
Heading into 2019, I thought Wentz had a chance to shine based on his combination of WRs and TEs. By midseason, the luster was gone after passing for only 1,567 yards (224 per game) and eight TDs over a seven-game stretch.
Despite weakness at WR (151/1684/11) due to injuries, Wentz rose from the dead to lead the Eagles to a playoff berth over his final five games (4-1) averaged over 300 yards and two TDs per contest. Wentz passed for over 300 yards in five games and posted three TDs in four starts.
His season ended quickly in the playoffs after suffering a concussion.
Philly has the best combination of TEs in the league, with a developing star at running back. Wentz needs WR Jalen Reagor to hit the ground running to push him toward the top six QBs.
Last year he was the 10th highest scoring QB (20.64) in four-point passing TD leagues. After the first run of the projections, I have Wentz on a path for 4,268 combined yards with 27 TDs and nine Ints.
Over the first ten games in a split role with RB Jordan Howard, Sanders gained about 69 yards per game with two TDs and 24 catches.
With Howard out of the picture, he helped the Eagles to a playoff berth with success over his next five contests (588 combined yards with four TDs and 23 catches) on 21.2 touches per game. Sanders played at the highest level in Week 15 (172 combined yards with two TDs and six catches) and Week 16 (156 combined yards with a TD and five catches).
Sanders finished 15th in RB scoring (219.8) in PPR leagues while being on the field for 53 percent of the Eagles' RB plays. At a minimum, Sanders will see a 20 percent growth in touches (229 in 2019) this year.
I have him projected for 1,500 combined yards with 12 TDs and 55 catches on 290 touches, making him a top 10 running back option in 2020.
The Jeffery fantasy flame is fading by the turn of each calendar day. Last year he played well in two games (10/76/1 and 9/137/1), but a zero in Week 2 and six missed games led to a seven-year low in catches (43), receiving yards (490), and targets (73).
His last impact season came in 2014 (85/1133/10). Jeffery had foot surgery in December, which may lead to him starting the year on the shelf. Earlier in 2019, he battled an ankle injury.
At age 30, Jeffery looks to fading with 20 missed games over the past five seasons. A low flying dart that rarely sticks on the board for a full year. I’ll set his initial bar as 58 catches for 712 yards and five TDs.
Even with his negatives, Jeffery still looks viable as a WR5.
Jalen Reagor, DeSean Jackson & J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
To read the full outlook,subscribe now by Saturday, August 1st using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
No team threw more to the TE position (150/1,573/12) than Eagles in 2019.
Their success at TE was two-fold. The Eagles struggled to make plays at wide receiver (151/1684/11), and Dallas Goedert (58/607/5) is an attractive second option at TE.
Ertz finished second the league in TE targets (135) while playing through rib and back injuries late in the year and missing Week 17.
Over the last three years, he has 22 TDs in 45 games. Like Travis Kelce, Ertz had a step back in big games (9/103/1 and 12/91/1) compared to 2018 (11/94, 10/112, 10/110/1, 9/138, 14/145/2, and 12/110/2).
Based on the early ADPs (56), I expect him to be a value on draft day compared to the top two options (Travis Kelce – 22 and George Kittle – 27).
Great resume and floor, but Philly has a developing pass-catching RB, and they surely need more balls directed at the WR position to help this win total. I set his bar at 90 catches for 883 yards and six TDs.
The Eagles climbed to 3rd in rushing yards allowed (1,442 yards), which was helped by 22.1 rushing attempts per game. They allowed 4.1 yards per rush with 13 TDs and ten runs over 20 yards and three rushes over 40 yards.
Philly jumped to 19th in passing yards allowed (3,865) while allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. QBs tossed only 27 TDs with 11 INTs while being sacked 43 times. The Eagles did allow 15 completions over 40 yards.
The city of Miami was campaigning for the former Alabama star as early as January 2019. The first #TankForTua tweet was sent out on March 3, 2019 from a Dolphins fan account. Tagovailoa appreciates the love he's gotten from the city but feels like he has to earn it first.
“I think it's awesome when anyone embraces you,” Tagovailoa says. “It shows the kind of fan base that the Dolphins organization has here in Miami. But I think the other thing, too, is I haven't done anything yet. So it's awesome that you get all this love from some of the fans, but you know, before I can get any of this love or before I say I deserve it, I think I got to earn it first.”
Tagovailoa is the future of the Dolphins, a team that is in desperate need of a new star. The franchise finished 5-11 last season, last in the AFC East, while quarterbacks Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick split time. Both those quarterbacks are still on the roster, meaning Miami has the option of bringing Tagovailoa along slowly.
“I'm looking forward to helping our team this year in whatever way I can,” Tagovailoa told SI on how he fits on Miami's roster. “If that looks like me sitting on the sideline and Fitz is coming off a drive and it’s me just [telling him] what I saw, then that’s what it will look like. If they need me to play, then, that's what it would look like. But regardless, if it is on the field or off it, it's about whatever I can do to help the team.”
Tagovailoa was one of the most marketable names in the 2020 draft and landing in Miami has surely attracted brands that see him as a young star and a franchise cornerstone for the Dolphins. Before even stepping foot on an NFL field, he has racked up endorsement deals that include Adidas, Activision, Bose, Hulu, Wingstop, and Muscle Milk. Activision, which overseas the Call of Duty franchise, has developed a huge fan base in the NFL; Tagovailoa credits the game for having many similarities to football.
“I think Call of Duty has a lot of things that relates to the football field. You're talking about a game that allows you to work in teams. You're talking about strategy ... communication is a big aspect of what you do in Call of Duty and it can relate to the things you do on the football field.”
Tagovailoa also joined a stacked Adidas quarterback roster that includes Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rogers. He says the brand has always treated him like family and when the decision came to sign, it seemed natural.
Tua credits his marketing team for helping land major deals. He was the first in his family to go through this process and says he wouldn’t know what to do without them.
“My marketing team has worked very hard day in and day out to help me get a lot of these big deals,” Tagovailoa says. “They are very respected in the agency world. I think it makes it pretty easy for them to go out as well and kind of help market me ... I'm the first in my family to go through this process and that’s a reason why I have these guys to help me with marketing, contracts, financial advisors and things like that.”
The first thing that Tua did when he announced that he signed with the Dolphins was a plan to give back to the communities that raised him. He has started charitable outreach efforts in Hawaii, Alabama and Miami. He also announced the establishment of the Tagovailoa Family Saint Louis School scholarship endowment that will provide educational opportunities for students in Hawaii.
“I think that that's very important to give back. Pretty much because that's where I grew up, in Hawaii,” Tagovailoa says. “It’s something really big. You see a lot of people making it big and then they give back to their communities back home. In Hawaii, I always wanted to do something like that. But for me, my heart's been in many places. I've been in Hawaii. I got to be in Alabama and then now here in Miami. And so, during a crisis like this, with this pandemic, I have opportunity to help a lot of families, a lot of people that are really, really struggling. To be able to do something, I think that makes all the difference.”
Check us out! Click here tosubscribe now by Saturday, August 1st using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Coaching Staff
The New York Giants struggled to win games over the last three seasons (4-12, 5-11, and 3-13), leading to another coaching change in 2020. Last year, Joe Judge made the jump from special teams/wide receiver coach for the Patriots to earning New York's head coaching job. He had been in New England's system since 2012. Over the previous 11 seasons, Judge was part of three Super Bowl wins and two National Championships at Alabama.
The offensive coordinator job now lies in the hands of former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett. He went 85-67 over the last decade in Dallas with three trips to the postseason, which included three NFC East titles (2014, 2016, and 2018). Garrett has been a coach in the NFL for 15 years.
New York ranked 18th in points scored (341) and 23rd yards gained in 2019.
Patrick Graham is the assistant head coach and defensive coordinator. Graham has previously worked with Judge while both were with the New England Patriots. Sean Spencer is the defensive line coach and run-game coordinator. He’s making the jump from Penn State to the NFL game. In 2018 and 2019, Spencer held three different jobs – associate head coach, run game coordinator, and defensive line coach. He had been a college coach since 1995.
After some disappointment on draft day for Giants’ fans, Jones proved to be worthy of the 6th overall pick in 2019.
He played at a high-level in four games in combined yards and TDs (364/4, 335/4, 328/4, and 364/5). Over his other eight starts, Jones had seven games with only one TD and six games with fewer than 225 yards passing.
He needs to improve his yards per pass attempt (6.6) while eliminating his failure in lost fumbles (11).
The Giants have a top pass-catching RB with viable talent at WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE. Jones should have a floor of 400 yards rushing with some TDs on the ground plus the tools to pass for over 4,000 yards with serviceable TDs.
In the first run of the projections, Jones looks to be on a path for 4,386 combined yards with 29 TDs and 13 Ints. Borderline top 12 QB.
Barkley was one of many first-round busts in 2019. He scored 141.7 fewer fantasy points in PPR leagues while missing three games due to a high ankle sprain.
His season started with a pair of 100-yard rushing games (11/120 and 18/107/1), but Barkley struggled to make plays over his next eight games (628 combined yards with two TDs and 34 catches) while gaining only 3.1 yards per rush.
His final three games (539 combined yards with five TDs and 11 catches) showcased his expected potential.
Barkley gained 3,469 combined yards with 24 TDs, and 143 catches over his first 29 games in the NFL. His success breaks down to 120 yards, 0.83 TDs, and 4.9 catches per game or 21.87 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
The Giants have a developing offense, which starts with a workhorse back. I expect 1,931 combined yards with 14 TDs and 70 catches on 362 touches for Barkley. He tends to be drafted second overall in PPR leagues.
Over his four years in the NFL, Shepard showcased high upside in multiple games, but he battled numerous concussions. In 2019, he missed Week 2 with a concussion, followed up by five more missed games with another concussion.
Over his first four games, Shepard caught 25 passes for 267 yards and one TD highlighted by his success in Week 3 (7/100/1). Later in the year, he flashed in two more games (9/111 and 6/76/1).
Better than his career stats, but Shepard can’t fulfill his expected value without staying on the field. With a full season of action, he has a chance at 75 catches for 900 yards and six TDs.
Risk/reward type player with plenty of room for more production.
Engram has been a tough ride over the last two seasons due to 13 missed games.
Last year he looked like fantasy gold after the first three games (23/277/2) thanks to two impact showings (11/116/1 and 6/113/1). Injuries cost him Week 6 (knee), and his final seven games (foot – required surgery in mid-December).
Over 34 games in the NFL, Engram averaged 4.5 catches for 52 yards and 0.35 TDs per game or 11.8 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
An upside talent that needs to stay healthy for 16 games to provide a top-six edge at TE. Jones flashed in his rookie season while expecting to improve in 2020.
In the high-stakes market, Engram is the seventh off the board. On a path for 70 catches for 850 yards and a handful of TDs.
Defense
Game score led to the Giants allowed 29.3 rushing attempts per game, and ranked 20th in rushing yards allowed (1,812). New York allowed 3.9 yards per rush and 19 rushing TDs.
The Giants were 28th in passing yards allowed (4,225) with 30 TDs and INTs. They finished with 36 sacks with QBs gaining 8.0 yards per pass attempt. New York allowed 67 catches of 20 yards or more, sixth-most in the league.
In the premium outlook, on defense you'll find write-ups for DE Dexter Lawrence, DE Leonard Williams, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, LB Markus Golden, LB David Mayo, LB Blake Martinez, LB Lorenzo Carter, CB DeAndre Baker, CB James Bradberry, S Jabrill Peppers & S Xavier McKinney.
To read the full outlook,subscribe now by Saturday, August 1st using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Team Defense Outlook
New York has the talent on the defensive line to show growth against the run. The LB corps will make plenty of tackles, but the Giants need Golden and Mayo to build on last year’s success. This defense needs Baker to play and live up to his draft expectations. The rest of the secondary has enough strength to rank above the league average.
Possible second fantasy defense if the pieces come together in 2020.
Unlock premium access to the full outlook by subscribing to FullTime Fantasy where we will help you dominate with our Draft Kit, customized rankings, expert consensus rankings, Preseason Pro, Advanced ADP, Premium forums to ask our experts unlimited questions 24/7 & more. Check us out! Click here tosubscribe now using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Correctly identifying a bust player in fantasy sports is a game-changer. Last year, the first round in fantasy football was a minefield of disappointment. Here’s a list of the top 24 draft picks in 2019 in PPR leagues with their final fantasy points and how many points they scored in 2019:
My first observation is that 11 running backs get drafted over the first 14 picks. Contests in the Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) favor wide receivers by having two flex positions in their starting lineup.
Based on the final 2019 stats, only four players improved on their 2018 scoring. Le’Veon Bell sat out 2018, but he failed to live up to expectations last year. The only four impact players (275 or more points) over the first 24 picks were Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook.
When on the draft clock for the first pick, no one ever thought Barkley would be outscored by 227.1 points in PPR leagues by McCaffrey. At the same time, Thomas scored 105.9 fantasy points more than Davante Adams and 106.9 fantasy points over DeAndre Hopkins.
Overall, 2019 had the most busts I’ve seen in my fantasy football career. Almost all of the weakness came via injuries.
The most significant bust in 2019 was Adam Thielen, who scored 194 fewer fantasy points.
My take from 2019 came from two players. Both James Conner and Kerryon Johnson have a jump in fantasy draft value while lacking a lengthy resume and a high draft pick pedigree. Injuries led to disappointing years.
For this year’s bust, I’m looking for a player who outperformed expectations in 2019 and will play in an offense that will experience a decline in quarterback play. Also, I’m looking for someone selected in the first three rounds in PPR leagues.
My 2020 bust of the year is...
To find out who this year's "Fantasy Football Bust of the Year" is, along with a full breakdown of why high stakes legend Shawn Childs is staying away, subscribe now using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
According to ESPN, two players, including one rookie, tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday. The rookie is asymptomatic.
While the Bills were not required to shut their facility down following the positive test, the team decided to minimize risk by sending its players home. As a result of the decision, the team held virtual meetings on Thursday instead of holding in-person meetings as scheduled.
"As we were informed by medical experts as training camp opened, we expected to have positive tests for COVID," the team said in a statement to ESPN. "With five since the beginning of the testing period last Tuesday, we decided to take a disciplined, proactive and preventative approach to hopefully eliminate additional cases within our team."
Rookies first reported to training camp and underwent testing on July 21.
Undrafted rookie cornerback Ike Brown was placed on the team's reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday. On Wednesday, the team put defensive tackle Vincent Taylor and wide receiver Duke Williams on the aforementioned list.
SI Fantasy analyst Bill Enright will be making the argument that Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the fourth round is the better overall pick based on talent, projections, and value. I will make the counterpoint argument for his teammate Julio Jones in the second round.
Falcons WR Julio Jones
Ben Heisler's argument for Jones over Ridley based on ADP:
Getting older can be a scary thing. Especially if you're a wide receiver on the wrong side of 30.
Not all wide receivers are Julio "Fricking" Jones.
At the ripe old age of 30, Jones put up another ho-hum, top-three fantasy season in PPR. In just 15 games, Jones caught 99 passes on 157 targets (2nd in the NFL) for 1,394 (also 2nd) and six touchdowns. He was third in FPTS, third in PPG, and averaged a whopping 11.1 yards/target.
Now, Austin Hooper and his 97 targets have headed north to Cleveland leaving even more bountiful opportunities for Jones to see the ball.
Jones will continue to extend his career in an offense perfectly suited to pad his stats. Last year, nobody completed more passes than his quarterback Matt Ryan, who also finished third in total pass attempts in 2019.
Calvin Ridley is a terrific Robin to Julio's Batman, but the WR23 in PPR a season ago is just not an adequate substitute a few rounds later for me. Julio each year, even with limited touchdown equity remains one of the most consistent, quality talents each year in fantasy football.
And for those of you want to make the argument that Julio is going to slow down in 2020? He's still one of the fastest players in the NFL, reaching upwards of 20.60 mph from late November of last year.
Falcons WR Calvin Ridley
Bill Enright's argument to take Ridley over Jones based on ADP:
Julio Jones is one of the most dominant and productive wide receivers in the NFL for the last eight seasons, yet drafting him in the late first or early second round of fantasy football drafts is a big mistake.
Sure, Jones' stat totals at the end of the season are impressive: more than 1,390 yards and over 80 catches in six straight seasons. Yet when comparing Jones to some of the other elite receivers in the NFL, there are two noticeable differences. First, there’s the lack of scoring. Jones hasn’t eclipsed eight touchdowns since 2012. DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill (all have similar ADPs in 2020) have exceeded Jones TD total on a per-season basis. In fact, Jones’ 23 scores ranks 12th among receivers with more than 200 catches since 2016. At that same time, Adams has 40, Hopkins has 35, and Hill has 32.
The second factor is Jones’ per-game fantasy points average. Unlike the upper echelon of NFL receivers, Jones has a tendency to disappear in a handful of times a year. His consistency rating falls outside the top 12 while teammate Calvin Ridley is inside the top 8.
Jones scored eight points or less six times in 2019, that’s just inexcusable for a receiver regarded as an elite WR1. Meanwhile, Ridley had just four games of less than eight points.
Factor in Ridley’s ADP as the 40th overall player compared to Jones as the 17th and the price point on Jones just doesn’t match-up compared to his teammate. Would much rather take Ridley in the fourth and a more consistent stud than Jones in the second, than draft Jones in the second and hope for a receiver as productive as Ridley in the fourth.
FFWC Rankings
While many sites offer ADP data, FullTimeFantasy’s Advanced ADP takes ADP data collection to the next level. Each player’s unique draft position is not just averaged out, but it also has takes the last 10 high-stakes drafts in the Fantasy Football World Championships. Who cares where your plumber Frank decided to draft this year’s breakout sleeper candidate? Wouldn’t you like to know where the BEST fantasy players are in the world are taking him?
To find out where BOTH Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are going based on the most recent 10 Online Championship and World Championship drafts, subscribe to FullTimeFantasy’s Advanced ADP and use code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Would You Rather: Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley?
Ben Heisler: Julio Jones in the second round
Bill Enright: Calvin Ridley in the fourth round
Let us know what you think! Tweet at us @SI_Fantasy and let us know... "Would you rather take Julio Jones in the second round? Or Calvin Ridley in the fourth?"
There are several reasons NFL players face job security risks. Poor play during the previous season, the competition brought in via a trade, or a team drafting an exciting young player, can put established starters at risk. Below, we look at starters from last year who are at risk of losing playing time during the 2020 NFL season.
Unlock premium access to the full outlook by subscribing to FullTime Fantasy where we will help you dominate with our Draft Kit, customized rankings, expert consensus rankings, Preseason Pro, Advanced ADP, Premium forums to ask our experts unlimited questions 24/7 & more. Check us out! Click here tosubscribe now using promo code TD30 for 30% off your first two months!
Detroit Lions RB: Kerryon Johnson vs. D’Andre Swift
Without a consistent top talent at running back, since Barry Sanders retired in 1998, Detroit selected Kerryon Johnson in the second round of the 2018 NFL draft. Johnson caught the Lions’ attention after posting 1,585 total yards and 20 touchdowns during his junior year with the Auburn Tigers. He hasn’t been the answer in the Motor City, as he has missed 14 games due to knee injuries during his first two seasons. Johnson has posted 1,044 rushing yards, 340 receiving yards and eight total touchdowns during 18 games for the Lions. Heading into the 2020 NFL season, Johnson will battle D’Andre Swift for the starter role in Detroit.
Selected No. 35 overall, during the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, D’Andre Swift joins the Lions after three seasons with the Georgia Bulldogs. Sharing touches with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, Swift posted 771 total yards and four touchdowns during his first year with the Bulldogs. Taking over as the lead back, Swift racked up 2,780 total yards and 21 touchdowns over 28 games during his final two seasons at Georgia. Swift is a versatile running back, with great acceleration and speed, but he appears to be in a running back by committee situation. As a rookie, don’t expect much more than RB2 numbers from Swift.
2020 Draft Day Advice: This is another situation where fantasy owners should try to draft both backs. Prepare as though there will be a committee and don’t rely on either back to put up stud numbers.
This of course led to a ton of reaction online, including from Mahomes himself.
To prove how silly lists can be, Sports Illustrated media columnist made one of his own, his second annual list of 100 sports media people. He discussed its inspiration and the lack of rhyme or reason in putting it together with SI host Robin Lundberg.
