Saints offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk is expected to sign a five-year extension with the Saints worth $96 million and $60 million guaranteed, per ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
The deal makes Ramczyk the highest-paid right tackle in all of football.
Ramczyk, 27, is now signed through 2026 with the Saints and will earn $19.2 million per year. He was drafted by the Saints in 2017 and was named First-Team All-Pro in 2019 and named Second-Team All-Pro in 2018 and 2020.
He didn't allow a sing sack in 2019 and was the highest-graded offensive lineman that same year. Ramczyk has only missed one game in his four-year career and has started in every appearance. He hasn't missed a game since 2018.
The wide receiver with the highest average draft position (ADP) early on this offseason is the Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill. He’s certainly worthy of the distinction, finishing the 2020 season as the WR2. Having breakneck speed and the NFL’s best passer in Patrick Mahomes throwing to him doesn’t hurt, either.
But Hill’s current ADP is 10, four spots lower than the highest-drafted wide receiver in 2020, Michael Thomas. The Saints’ star receiver, who set an NFL record in 2019 with 149 catches, was also drafted lower than the top receiver from the year before. DeAndre Hopkins, then with the Texans, had an ADP of 5 in 2019.
Antonio Brown was fantasy football's top-drafted receiver from 2015-2018. His ADP fell for three consecutive years, starting in 2016.
Brown, the former Steelers receiver who’s now with the Buccaneers, peaked in 2016 as the consensus No. 1 pick, a rare honor for a receiver.
After that peak came a wide receiver ADP valley that we're still experiencing.
Packers star Davante Adams might have broken the trend this season if it weren't for the uncertainty around the future of his quarterback and league MVP Aaron Rodgers. Adams caught a league-leading 18 touchdowns and was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver despite playing just 14 games. His ADP is 11.
If Hill’s ADP holds, he would be the lowest-drafted first receiver off the board in at least the last 10 years.
Running backs make up the bulk of first-round picks in any year, but the top eight ADPs belong to running backs this season. Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce interrupts that streak at No 9. If his position holds, it would be the highest ADP for a tight end since Jimmy Graham in 2014.
Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey's ADP is 1 for the second year in a row. He's followed, in order, by the Vikings' Dalvin Cook, the Saints' Alvin Kamara, the Giants' Saquon Barkley, the Titans' Derrick Henry, the Colts' Jonathan Taylor, the Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliot, and the Browns' Nick Chubb.
The number of running backs selected in the first round of 12-team drafts has stayed relatively stable in the last few years. There were lows of just six first-round ADPs for running backs in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017. But in the last four years, the number of running backs with first-round ADPs has been nine or more.
What’s changed is when and how often receivers are being selected in the first round. As the ADP of the first wide receiver drafted fell from 2017 on, so did the number of receivers with top-12 ADPs.
In each of the last three drafts, only two receivers have first-round ADPs in each draft. In 2019, it was Hopkins and Adams. In 2020, it was Thomas and Adams. And in 2021, so far, it’s Hill and Adams representing receivers in the top 12 picks. Elite running backs are simply more scarce and you've got to get them early!
With that in mind, running backs are increasingly dominating the top of drafts, and fantasy owners are opting to wait longer before selecting receivers. They're employing the NFL's running back logic to the wide receiver position by spending later in a draft for similar production—and it's working.
In the NFL draft and a fantasy draft, the goal is to extract the most value from each draft selection. The difference is, in fantasy football, running backs still reign supreme, now more than ever.
2021 NFL Draft, organized team activities, and minicamps now complete, teams are preparing for the start of training camp. Unlike previous seasons, when camps opened on various dates, 29 of 32 teams will get back to work on July 27, 2021. Pittsburgh and Dallas play in the Hall of Fame Game, so their camps begin on July 21. Defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay can report to camp starting on July 24.
While the NFL is in a short summer slumber, there are loads of preseason betting options at top-ranked U.S. sportsbooks like DraftKings. From Division champions and team win totals to Season Specials and Super Bowl LVI odds, the DraftKings NFL futures betting board is packed with choices. As part of the package, the “Team to win Most Games in the Regular Season” prop betting option is on our radar today.
We track our preseason picks and publish hedge betting advice during the regular season when warranted. SI premium subscribers receive betting plays, updates, and articles, as soon as they are published.
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Super Bowl Winners - Regular Season Records
This is an enticing wagering option from a few angles. Does anyone see a clear-cut Super Bowl LVI lock at this point? No team has popped off the page at me yet. DraftKings have Kansas City (+500) and Tampa Bay (+650) as their top two favorites. After that, there is a gap between Buffalo (+1100) and the Los Angeles Rams (+1300). Baltimore and San Francisco are tied as fifth favorites with a +1400 moneyline price.
When researching this prop option, bettors don’t need to worry too much about which team will win the outright NFL Championship. Dating back to the 2004 season, 26 teams have finished with the best regular-season record – including ties. Philadelphia (2017) and New England (2016 and 2014), plus Seattle in 2013, were the only teams that won the Super Bowl. A wager here may also set up a late-season hedge bet.
Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook on 06/30/21
Most 2021-22 NFL Regular Season Wins - Favorites
Usual suspects, plus a 6–10 team from last season, occupy the favorite slots on the “Most Games Won” prop at DraftKings. As they are on the Super Bowl futures board, the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Bills are the top three favorites. San Francisco, who finished NFL 2020 on a 2–7 slide, is a somewhat surprising fifth favorite. I bet the Kansas City win total OVER 12.5 (+100) and, while it’s chalky, I like them out of this group as well.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs – Most Games Won (+400)
Sleeper Pick: Green Bay (+2000) If Aaron Rodgers stays with the Packers
Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook on 06/30/21
Most 2021-22 NFL Regular Season Wins - Mid-Tier Teams
The water gets a little murkier when looking at the middle 10 chalk squads. Not due to wondering if any of the teams will post the most wins, but more so because a few squads could rack up the most wins. I have Minnesota winning the NFC North, plus Dallas winning the NFC East. Both teams could go on long winning runs this season. I also bet on the Los Angeles Chargers exceeding their 9.5 (+110) win total odds.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings – Most Games Won (+5000)
Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook on 06/30/21
Most 2021-22 NFL Regular Season Wins - Dark Horse
This is where the water turns to mud, as it is difficult to see any of the bottom 12 underdogs posting the most wins during the 2021-22 NFL season. That said, if defense wins championships, the Washington Football Team could claim back-to-back titles. The NFC East will be fairly competitive so a concern is the WFT winning the division with a 9–8 record. An 8–9 season is a stretch for the other 11 pups listed below.
Pick: Washington Football Team – Most Games Won (+6000)
Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook on 06/30/21
New Orleans lost DE Trey Hendrickson, DT Sheldon Rankins, and LB Alex Anzalone to free agency.
Draft
DE Payton Turner
Turner gives the Saints another player with strength and range defending the run on the outside. His game isn’t where it needs to be when attacking the quarterback with power, but he’ll create havoc when flipping to the inside. Turner gets off the ball quickly while not fully developed.
LB Pete Werner
Werner brings an excellent fit to a team with strength on the defensive line. His vision grades well with a foundation to fill holes in a hurry against the run and attacking the quarterback position. He gets in trouble when facing big bodies in traffic. Werner needs to get stronger while adding more pop to his tackles.
CB Paulson Adebo
Adebo opted out of 2020, leaving him as a wild card in their year’s draft class. He projects as a lockdown press cover who gains value as the field shortens. His playmaking style can leave him at risk when playing off the ball and facing a speedy receiver with double moves. His technique in mirroring pass patterns needs work, but his feel for the ball creates an edge, especially against teams with a short passing window. Adebo has questions about his value in run support, which may be helped by patient decision-making.
QB Ian Book
His dual-threat ability falls in line with the recent success of Taysom Hill. He lacks an elite arm with questions with his size (6.0” and 210 Lbs.). Book offers a good feel for the pocket with a chain mover feel when asked to run on RPOs. His accuracy diminishes with the length of throws while needing improvement taking care of the ball under duress.
T Landon Young
Young gets off the ball well after the span while relying on his strength to create wins. His forward lean creates imbalance and missed timed blocks. He battles speed in the pass rush, and jumpers crossing his face can lead to pressure on the quarterback.
WR Kawaan Baker
Baker has the tools to reach a high ceiling once he shows he can win against NFL talent at cornerback. His early quickness and acceleration set the tone for wins with the wheels to turn a short pass into long touchdowns. Baker gets off the line well against press coverage. However, his success falls on the development of his hands.
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Offensive Line
The Saints climbed to 6th rushing yards (2,265). New Orleans scored 30 touchdowns while gaining (4.6 yards per rush with 14 runs over 20 yards. New Orleans averaged 30.9 rushes compared to 25.3 in 2019.
New Orleans slipped to 20th in the NFL in passing yards (3.945) with 28 touchdowns and eight touchdowns. They only had 44 completions over 20 yards while gaining yards per pass attempt (7.6). Their offensive line allowed 29 sacks.
LT Terron Armstead
Armstead was one of the best players at his position while playing at an elite level again last year in pass protection. His run blocking rebounded while also providing an edge over the league average. Armstead has never had over 1,000 snaps in a season in his career.
LG Andrus Peat
Peat improved to closer to the league average in the run game after two disappointing seasons. His pass protection has been a problem over the past three years despite getting drafted in the first round in 2015.
C Erik McCoy
Over two seasons after getting drafted in the second round, McCoy made 32 starts with success in both run and pass blocking. His game is built on power and strength, allowing McCoy to handle bull rushers. His range is limited, but he does protect his space quickly after the snap. His challenge will come when asked to defend a more significant piece of the field in pass protection.
RG Cesar Ruiz
The Saints expect Ruiz to upgrade their run game thanks to plus strength and the ability to win quickly after the snap. Ruiz uses his hands well, but his range may be limited. His challenge will come vs. power in the pass rush. New Orleans drafted him in the first round in 2020. He didn’t allow a sack last year, but defenders did apply plenty of pressure on the quarterback while showing weakness against the run.
RT Ryan Ramczyk
Ramczyk played well in all four seasons in the NFL after the Saints drafted him in the first round in 2017. Ramczyk is very skilled in the techniques needed to have success at his position while adding athletic ability. He has been an asset in all years in run and pass blocking.
OL Snapshot
New Orleans has a top offensive line, but a change at the quarterback position changes the game flow and passing window. The Saints will run the ball well again while having the same coaching staff who wants to put the ball in the air.
Offense
The Saints ran the ball 48.6 percent of the time in 2020, helped by Taysom Hill (87/457/8) making four starts. Their passing attempts (32.6) fell below the league average for the fourth season.
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill
In his four starts in 2020, Hill passed for 834 yards and four touchdowns while adding a high floor on the ground (39/209/4). His success led to 102.7 fantasy points (25.68 per game) in four-point passing touchdown leagues, which would have ranked seventh if Hill repeated his success over another 12 contests.
He finished with a high completion rate (72.7) while gaining 7.7 yards per pass attempt. In addition, Hill was active in the run game (87/457/8) even when not playing quarterback.
Fantasy Outlook: New Orleans will rotate two quarterbacks in 2021. Hill played well with Drew Brees out last year, giving him a window to prove he belongs as their number one quarterback. His game management skills added to his value in the run game should play well with the lead, but the Saints should hook him when a game gets out of hand, and New Orleans has to throw. His cloudiness ranks Hill as the 31st quarterback drafted in 12-team leagues in late June. For a fantasy owner looking to play matchups, Hill is a value as a QB3.
Jameis Winston
Over 70 career starts, Winston went 28-42, with his only winning record coming in 2016 (9-7). In 2019, Winston led the NFL in passing yards (5,109) with plenty of touchdowns (33) and attempts (626), but his incredibly high number of interceptions (30 – seventh-highest all-time) keeps his opponents in games too often.
His career completion rate (61.3) is well below the top quarterbacks in the game, but his stats in this area aren’t padded by an active receiver in the passing game at running back.
Fantasy Outlook: In his first season with the Saints, Winston went 7-for-11 with 75 yards and no touchdowns. Winston would be on a path for 5,000 combined yards with over 30 touchdowns if given the keys to run New Orleans' offense for an entire season. On the downside, he could hold a clipboard for a significant portion of the year. Possible wise guy target for a fantasy owner wanting to cheat the quarterback position, and the training camp news slants toward him starting in Week 1.
Ian Book
Book gained 10,466 combined yards over four seasons at Notre Dame with 89 combined touchdowns and 20 interceptions. His best success came in 2019 (3,580 combined yards with 38 touchdowns and six interceptions. Book has a winning resume, but he does need time to develop as a passer.
Other Option: Trevor Siemian
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray combined for 2,520 yards with 20 touchdowns and 106 catches. The running back position gained 25 percent of the Saints’ passing yards while catching over 30 percent of their completions.
Alvin Kamara
Over his four seasons with the Saints, Kamara delivered a high floor in each year (81/826/5, 81/709/4, 81/533/1, and 83/756/5) in the passing game. He’s still looking for his first season over 1,000 yards rushing (career-high in 2020 – 932 yards). Kamara has 43 rushing touchdowns over 60 games. He led the league in running back scoring (378.00) in 2020 in PPR leagues.
Last year, Kamara rushed for over 100 yards in one matchup (22/155) while scoring an incredible six touchdowns. His best success catching the ball came in Week 3 (13/139/2). He scored over 30.00 fantasy points in four contests (38.40, 44.70, 34.80, and 56.20). The Saints gave him 18 touches per game.
Fantasy Outlook: Other than 2019 (six touchdowns), Kamara has consistently delivered yards, touchdowns, and catches. He continues to compete with Latavius Murray for touches, and Taysom Hill could be more of a problem if he wins the starting quarterback job. On the flip side, Kamara has the tools to push even higher if given 325-plus touches, which would require an injury to Murray. He ranks third in the early draft season while offering a 300-point fantasy floor.
Latavius Murray
The Saints gave Murray 349 touches over the past two seasons, which works out to 11.25 per game. He finished 28th and 34th in running back scoring in PPR leagues in 2019 (157.20 fantasy points) and 2020 (136.80 fantasy points). Last year, a healthier Alvin Kamara led to Murray receiving 17 fewer targets and a step back in opportunity in the passing game (23/176/1). He missed Week 17 and most of the postseason with a quad injury.
Murray offered the best fantasy value in Week 4 (83 combined yards with two touchdowns and one catch) and Week 12 (19/124/2 with one catch for two yards). He scored under 10.00 fantasy points 10 times in PPR leagues, making him tough to time in the fantasy market.
Fantasy Outlook: Murray starts the year at age 31 with the resume to receive 150-plus touches off the bench for the Saints. He works as a bridge filler or bye week cover while also owning top 12 running back upside if given a full-time starting job. Murray looks to be easier to handcuff with Kamara based on his late June ADP (144). I won’t fight for him on draft day unless I’m trying to roster both New Orleans’ running backs.
Other Options: Dwayne Washington, Ty Montgomery, Tony Jones, Stevie Scott
Wide Receivers
Much of the wide receiver production for the Saints, with Drew Brees throwing the ball, came close to the line of scrimmage, leading to a higher catch rate (65.4) over the previous three seasons. Their downside comes from regression in their yards per catch (11.35). Injuries to Drew Brees and Michael Thomas led to a sharp decline in wide receiver touchdowns (13 – 20 in 2019) and fade in catches (195 – 219 in 2019) and receiving yards (2,213 – 2,617 in 2019).
Michael Thomas
In 2019, Thomas set the NFL record in catches (149) while scoring almost 100 more fantasy points (375.5) than the 2nd ranked wide receiver (Chris Godwin – 276.1) in PPR leagues.
At the end of Week 1, he suffered a doomed high ankle sprain with minimal time left in the game. His injury led to six missed weeks and two empty starts (5/51 and 2/27 on 13 combined targets). From Week 11 to Week 14, Thomas has posted three playable games (9/104, 9/105, and 8/84) before suffering a hamstring injury.
In the first week of the playoffs, he scored his only touchdown (5/73/1), followed by a zero on four targets against Tampa.
In mid-January, Thomas had shoulder and ankle surgeries.
When at his best from 2017 to 2019, Thomas caught 378 passes for 4,375 yards and 23 touchdowns on 481 targets. His catch rate (78.6) over this span was elite while gaining 11.6 yards per catch. He averaged 7.9 catches for 91 yards and 0.48 touchdowns per game or 20.03 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
Fantasy Outlook: The questions on who starts at quarterback for the Saints and a down season by Thomas led to him sliding to the third round in PPR leagues in most early drafts in the 12-team high-stakes market. His ADP (31) has a breakaway layup feel. In 2018 and 2019, only six running backs outscored him within each year while ranking second behind Christian McCaffrey in combined fantasy points (857.20 to 693.00).
Thomas had 30 catches for 343 yards on 37 targets over his four starts with Taysom Hill behind center in 2020., Over this stretch, New Orleans passed for 834 yards with 82 completions. Thomas finished with 36.6 percent of the team’s team completions and 41.1 percent of their passing yards in these four games.
At a minimum, the Saints will attempt 34 passes per game, leading to an average of 22.2 completions. Thomas should have a floor of seven catches per game for 80 yards and a score every other week. My easy math comes to 18.00 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. If New Orleans starts Jameis Winston for 17 games, Thomas gets a 10 to 20 percent bump in value.
Tre’Quan Smith
The ceiling of Smith remains a mystery. He has 80 catches for 1,109 yards and 14 touches over 40 career games. Last year, he set a career-high in catches (34), receiving yards (448), and targets (50) while missing three games (including the playoffs) with an ankle injury. Smith averaged under three targets in his three years in the league. His best value came in Week 2 (5/86), Week 13 (3/42/1), and Week 19 (3/85/3).
Fantasy Outlook: Smith has the stats to support much more upside if he can find a way to stay healthy and push his targets to six per game. The fluid dynamics at the quarterback position push him into the deep sleeper category with an ADP of 220. At the very least, Smith has the potential to be a fourth-year breakout with a 60/900/6 type season. His higher ceiling/opportunity comes with Jameis Winston starting.
Kawaan Baker
Over his final three seasons at South Alabama, Baker caught 119 passes for 1,727 yards and 15 touchdowns. He flashed big-play ability in 2018 and 2019 (15.0 and 16.4 yards per catch) while transitioning to a possession guy last season (51/659/8 – 12.9 yards per catch). Baker also has some experience running the ball (92/376/11), highlighted by his success in 2018 (59/251/9).
Fantasy Outlook: I'm intrigued by his scouting report while also understanding Baker needs time to develop. If Drew Brees started in 2021, he might have moved quickly up the Saints’ depth chart. But, for now, only a player to follow over the summer. In my head, my thought is a poor man’s Jarvis Landry with a flavor of Golden Tate with the ball in his hands. New Orleans should try to get him the ball on jet sweeps similarly as the Rams do with Robert Woods.
Marquez Callaway
In his rookie season over 11 games, Callaway caught 21 of his 27 passes for 213 yards with one contest of value (8/75). New Orleans signed him as an undrafted free agent last April. Callaway battled knee and ankle injuries over the second half of 2020.
From 2017 to 2019 at Tennessee, he caught 91 of his 164 targets for 1,633 yards and 13 touchdowns while working as a deep threat (17.9 yards per catch).
Other Options: Deonte Harris, Juwan Johnson, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Jake Lampman
Tight Ends
The tight end catch opportunity in the Saints’ passing game has been about the same over the past three seasons. They receive about 16.5 percent of the team’s completions and close to 20 percent of their passing yards. New Orleans does look for the tight end position in the red zone (20 touchdowns in 2019 and 2020).
Adam Trautman
As the TE2 for the Saints last season, Trautman caught 15 of his 16 targets for 171 yards and one touchdown. His only playable game came in Week 9 (3/39/1).
Over four seasons in Dayton, Trautman caught 178 passes for 2,295 yards and 31 touchdowns. His play improved in 2018 (41/604/9) and 2019 (70/916/14).
Trautman comes to the NFL with a pass-catching skill set. He does some things well in his route running while also having questions with his release and blocking.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on ADP (169), not many fantasy owners fight for Trautman on draft day. He projects as a backend TE2 in PPR leagues with the talent to become a 50/50/5 player in his second year in the league. For someone looking to cheat the tight end position, Trautman is a must-follow this summer as he could very well emerge as the Saints’ third option in the passing game.
Other Options: Nick Vannett, Ethan Wolf, Dylan Soehner
Kicker
Wil Lutz
Over his five seasons with the Saints, Lutz made 86.6 percent of his 164 field goals. His kicks started to fade over the past two years from 50 yards or more (4-for-9), lowering his career percentage to 56.5 percent (13-for-23). Lutz has seven missed extra points in his 260 chances.
In 2020, New Orleans had a five-year high in extra points (58) at the expense of their field-goal tries (28 – averaged 34 from 2016 to 2019). The Saints run the ball well in close, which hurts their scoring in the kicking game.
Fantasy Outlook: Lutz ranked 8th, 4th, 2nd, and 13th in kicker scoring over the last four years. I expect a bounce-back this year. He ranks 12th at the kicker position in the early draft positions, pointing to a value.
Defense
New Orleans remains fourth in rushing yards allowed (1,502) with 11 touchdowns and eight runs over 20 yards. They gave up 3.9 yards per rush, with opponents attempting 24.4 rushers per game.
The Saints jumped to fifth in passing yards allowed (3,472) with 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 6.7 yards per pass attempt with 49 completions over 20 yards and nine catches over 40 yards. Their defense finished with 45 sacks.
DT David Onyemata
In his fifth season in New Orleans, Onyemata posted career-highs in tackles (44) and sacks (6.5) while adding an interception and two defended passes. Most of his playing time comes on early downs against the run, where his game tends to shine. However, he does need to improve his tackling.
DE Payton Turner
New Orleans protected their pass rush on the outside by adding Turner in the first round of this year’s draft. His game hasn’t reached its ceiling, so playing behind Cameron Jordan should help his development.
The second defensive tackle position for the Saints is an area of weakness. As a result, they signed multiple undrafted players to add to their already below-bar options.
DE Marcus Davenport
Davenport picked 53 tackles and 11.5 sacks over his first two years in the NFL with success defending the run while playing in 26 games. In 2020, he missed the first four games with an elbow injury, leading to a step back in his stats (21 tackles and 1.5 sacks). Nevertheless, Davenport remains a top player at his position.
DE Cameron Jordan
Jordan has been a top player at his position for five straight seasons. His value vs. the run remains high, but he finished with a fade in his sack production (7.5 – 40 over his previous 48 starts). The Saints drafted Jordan in the first round in 2011.
LB Demario Davis
Davis has over 100 tackles in six of his nine years in the NFL while never missing a game in his career. Over the previous three seasons, he had played at an elite level vs. the run while delivering 13 combined sacks. However, quarterbacks did pick on him in the red zone, leading to too many touchdowns allowed.
LB Pete Werner
The Saints expect Werner to move into the starting lineup after getting drafted in the second round in 2021. His style of play should excel on the right side of New Orleans defense.
The strongside linebacker position for the Saints needs an upgrade via a late signing. All current options have minimal resumes while lacking top-tier draft pedigree.
CB Marshon Lattimore
The theory of Lattimore being a top coverage cornerback left the building in his rookie season. He held receivers to a reasonable catch rate over the past two years, but Lattimore allowed too many big plays, and touchdowns were a problem in 2020.
CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
New Orleans shifted Gardner-Johnson to slot cornerback in 2020 after seeing action at safety in his rookie season. He held receivers to short yards per catch with neutral value in his catch rate.
S Marcus Williams
Over four seasons, Williams has 246 tackles, 30 defended passes, and 13 defended passes. He’s a beast in run support, but Williams did give up multiple long plays in coverage last year.
S Malcolm Jenkins
In his first year back with New Orleans, Jenkins played well against the run, which was the case over his six seasons in Philadelphia. He likes to keep receivers in front of him, leading to low yards per catch. Jenkins is a league-average player.
Fantasy Defense Snapshot
New Orleans has three glaring issues on defense – defensive tackle, outside linebacker, and left cornerback. They might get away with the defensive lineman, but the other two positions will get exposed by good teams. The Saints put pressure on the quarterback and slow down the run. Both Payton Turner and Pete Werner add playmaking to the defense. New Orleans needs Marshon Lattimore to play much better in coverage this year. In fantasy land, this defense should rank as a low-end DST1.
Brady has already shot a Subway ad, which is expected to debut in about a month, Lefton reports, but it won’t feature him holding a sandwich.
Bringing the notoriously health-conscious Brady on board makes sense for Subway as it tries to rebuild its image as a healthier alternative to other fast food. The chain is dealing with a couple of unsavory controversies over the content of its food. A New York Times analysis earlier this month found that Subway’s tuna contains “no amplifiable tuna DNA” and Ireland’s Supreme Court ruled last year that its loaves contain too much sugar to be legally considered bread.
Brady obviously isn’t going into Subway and ordering a footlong maybe-not-tuna on toasted not-legally-bread. Lefton even cited a source as claiming that Brady “has never been inside a Subway.”
It would be one thing for Brady to appear in an ad for a fast food joint he’s never even been to, but Brady’s actual history with Subway makes this situation even funnier. Brady used to love Subway, but now he can’t even stomach the thought of it.
Brady appeared on actor Dax Shepard’s podcast Armchair Expert in September to promote his TB12 Method and talked about how, in college, he would go to Subway and “eat like 18 inches of sandwich, of meatball.”
“And at the time, if I went healthy, I was going only one slice of cheese all the way across instead of two slices,” he said.
Later in the episode, Brady walked through his dietary evolution and how he came to embrace his current diet.
“Over time, what I’ve noticed is that my taste buds change,” Brady said. “I went from, I loved Subway and Burger King and all those types of things, to now, it’s like, the thought of that is like no way! No way!”
Somehow I doubt that the tagline of Brady’s commercial will be “Subway: No way!”
drafted in the seventh round by the Packers, would have had the chance to rise through the organization like he did in New England, thus cementing himself as a journeyman backup. He was obviously good enough to become the greatest player in NFL history, but I think a lot of his rise had to do with a willingness from the Patriots’ coaching staff to buck traditional thinking and pour their resources behind someone like Brady, along with Brady’s ability to see that working the way he did was going to be rewarded. A lot of teams preach hard work, but few of them, I think, would have recognized and valued the little things that Brady did, like obsessively study opponent quarterbacks in order to give the Patriots the best scout team looks in practice. So, I think Rodgers would have done Rodgers things in New England on very good rosters with a great offensive coordinator. I think Brady would have supplanted Brett Favre in an offense that didn’t necessarily bend to his skill set, and he’d have had a difficult time ever achieving the kind of liftoff he had with the Patriots.
There are so many aspects of the Brady mythos that are situationally dependent. For example, would he have met his controversial super-trainer, Alex Guerrero, if he had not been in the locker room with Willie McGinest back in 2006 when the Patriots’ star defensive player started bringing Guerrero around? What would the back end of his career after his 2008 ACL tear have looked like otherwise? Would Brady have been able to succeed on a Packers roster that notoriously shunned the acquisition of free agents, unlike a Patriots roster that, over the years, acquired the likes of Randy Moss and also built one of the NFL’s real, top-to-bottom, middle-class rosters full of talented veterans hanging in New England’s orbit at a discounted price in order to win a championship?
Would he have won as frequently with Mike Sherman or Mike McCarthy, who were notoriously stubborn when it came to their systems, instead of Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, who changed the way teams custom game planned for opponents (a large part of which, we admit, Brady also had a significant hand in)? Would he have won as many games without being in an offense for the better part of 20 years (one he carried with him to Tampa Bay, essentially convincing the Buccaneers to reroute at the end of the 2020 season to run)? Would Brady have gotten famous and expensive enough to take a notoriously lower contract to aid in Green Bay’s roster construction over a long period of time?
I think from a talent perspective, most of us can agree that the raw, God-given tools Rodgers has to work with are slightly better than the ones Brady was born with. Rodgers is a tremendous competitor, though Brady may have redefined the meaning of competitiveness over his tenure in the NFL. Is that enough on its own to have transformed him into the player he is now without all of the other mitigating circumstances? Have there been other Bradys over the course of NFL history who had the will and the work ethic to reach that level, but were ditched by coaches scared of the optics, thus shooting down promising careers before they started?
Brady needed to be paired with Belichick, the guy who had the fortitude to fire Bernie Kosar in Cleveland and, later, the guy who was comfortable moving on from Drew Bledsoe, in order to set a lot of this in motion. Rodgers, meanwhile, could have been put on a lot of rosters and won Super Bowls simply by virtue of being an exceptionally talented and driven player. And, because he was a first-round pick, he inevitably would’ve gotten more chances.
From Stagger McTipsy (@StaggerMcTipsy0): What is the best concert you’ve ever attended?
Thanks for the question, Stagger. Those who have read some of my work can probably guess which direction this is headed. I would say my first “real” concert, which was the Allman Brothers and Moe. at Montage Mountain in Moosic, Pa., will always hold a special significance in my heart. I have seen Moe. about a half dozen times now and have always enjoyed the atmosphere at their shows. A close second would be Joe Russo’s Almost Dead, which I caught at the Brooklyn Bowl. They had John Mayer, who currently tours with Dead and Company, sit in on Althea, and it was really special. I was always bummed I didn’t get to see The Grateful Dead in their prime (mid-to-late 1970s), but this felt about as close as I could come. Young, talented musicians really capturing the spirit of the thing.
Other close seconds and thirds:
• Rage Against the Machine, Rock the Bells 2007
• Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers at the Fillmore in Philadelphia
• Paul McCartney at MetLife Stadium, 2016
From Craig Ginsberg (@CraigAdamG): How do you see the Green Bay–Rodgers saga ending?
Hey Craig, thanks for the question and happy Fourth. It’s interesting; I’ve talked to people in close proximity to the situation who aren’t sure how it’s going to end. Here’s ultimately what I think will happen, based on the current state of play and my gut instinct. Rodgers, one of the most competitive people on planet earth, needs to do a much better job of convincing the Packers that he’s willing to drop everything, take a massive pay cut and sit out while Jordan Love takes a crack at this very amenable offense than he’s currently doing. I don’t think he’ll be traded. I think he’s made the strongest point that he could possibly make, and at this moment, the ball is in his court to dig in his heels and find another layer of discontent.
If I were Rodgers, I would be looking out at the teams that were allegedly on my leaked trade destinations list. The 49ers have Trey Lance, so they’re out. Then you’re looking at the Broncos and the Raiders, neither of which have an offensive identity or established weapon set. Green Bay has the offense. The one every quarterback is calling their agent to try and find a way to run. They have the coordinator whom Rodgers respects. They have a great running game and a good defense. They’ve won 13 games each of the last two years and the division is still soft. Long-term marriages are complicated, but I would speculate that he’s smart enough to realize that his best shot at winning a Super Bowl is on this team, right here, right now. I would expect that at some point early in training camp, we’ll have the frantic, CNN-style helicopter landing, and Rodgers will come out and gracefully voice his displeasure while somehow managing to scoop the upper hand on management in the court of public opinion. There will be a new contract. Then a new viewpoint on the Love replacement timeline. And, of course, a relieved Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur, finally attempting to exhale.
From Tony C (@Bucz109): I have never heard of Jermyn, Pennsylvania and only live 2.5 hours away. Are the hot wings worth making the drive out there?
Hey Tony, the short answer is yes. Jermyn is home to the Windsor Inn, which advertises itself as having “the world’s second-best hot wings.” I might agree with that, as the only wings I’ve ever had that are better are at Bar-Bill in Buffalo. I made the trip home this past weekend (I was raised in Clarks Summit, Pa.) and picked up 120 wings from the Windsor to share with my friends. It was delightful. One of the rare times where something you build up in your mind during your childhood secures its excellence 17 years later.
From Michael Cameron Vegh (@MichaelCVegh): The Jaguars currently sit at 8-1 odds to win the AFC South. What would it take from their squad to win the AFC in Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer's first run in a seemingly winnable division?
Hey Michael, thanks for the question. I think it would take quite a lot for the Jaguars to win the division here. This is the Colts’ division to lose in 2021, and I don’t think it’s necessarily close. Carson Wentz will be back to looking like vintage Wentz in an offense that gives him reasonable reads and doesn’t force him to play hero ball on every down. The Titans will finish second and Jacksonville should hope that they beat the pulp out of the Texans twice this year and finish Meyer’s first campaign with enough steam to legitimize the massive decision to hire a collegiate coach in the first place. The Jaguars needed help stopping the run, but went with a running back for their second first-round pick. They’re in a division with Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, which, regardless of how well Joe Cullen does in his first year as DC, is going to be a gargantuan task to stop.
I’ll also be watching Lawrence to see how quickly the offense goes from clunky to seamless. Brian Schottenheimer and Darrell Bevell have a lot of work ahead of them, and their schematic experiences tend to lean more pro style. Bevell did a good job protecting Russell Wilson early in his career, as did Schottenheimer with Mark Sanchez in 2009 and ’10, handing the offense over in chunks and increasing the responsibilities over time. Lawrence, though, will be expected to move at an expedited pace with a less-talented surrounding class. I’m not sure that’s possible.
From Connor Grossman (@connorgrossman): Who's the starting quarterback on the next 49ers team to win the Super Bowl? What kind of acai bowl does he like?
Connor! Miss you, buddy. It’s not the same here at SI now that people don’t mistakenly send me your emails. Trey Lance will win a Super Bowl with the 49ers. I have very little doubt about this. I think it will happen soon, quite possibly next year. Teams already have a difficult enough time stopping Kyle Shanahan’s offense. It has evolved to the point where they have answers for almost anything a defense is going to throw at them and their running game, buoyed by offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, is the most maximized and well-understood system in the NFL. And now that everyone has spent an offseason figuring out how to crack the code, Lance can become a power rusher and destroy the math defensive coordinators have been working with for the last five years. If you are in a dynasty fantasy league and do not pick Lance, I hope you enjoy finishing out of the money each and every year.
Part II: I don’t know if Lance likes acai, or what kind, but here is my mainstay of late, courtesy of the Playa Bowls near my house: Coconut base, vegan granola, flax oil, almond butter and bananas.
From Neal (@CapitolTitans): I don’t get the Zach Wilson thing. It seems like no one besides the Jets would’ve taken him at No. 2, they just locked on and wanted him for some reason. Am I wrong about this?
Hey Neal, I would say you are kind of wrong about this (the Eagles, for one, probably would have taken him), but here’s a fun way to think about the situation: Imagine being Robert Saleh, a first-time head coach, after waiting three cycles to land a gig. The first thing your team does is pick a quarterback. You’re a defensive-minded head coach, so a lot of the legwork is going to fall on the general manager and the offensive coordinator. The guy picking behind you was Kyle Shanahan, your former boss, who jetted up the draft board once it became obvious that you were taking Zach Wilson to select the guy after you. Would you be worried in the least? Would there be any hesitation?
I’m not saying any of this is true for Saleh, but it underscores the faith he must have in Joe Douglas and the faith the Jets have in Douglas to have traded away Sam Darnold in the first place. I think Wilson will succeed, but that’s because Saleh was savvy enough to lure Mike LaFleur and run-game coordinator John Benton away from San Francisco. That was huge. I took a trip to Jets OTAs last week at the end of minicamp and was impressed by a few high-difficulty throws Wilson made against a heavy pass rush. There were a lot of batted passes and a few notable throws behind wide receivers he has little to no relationship with, but there were also some touch passes he made against surging defensive players that resulted in big gains during a (somewhat) live situation. Those impressed me.
Thanks everyone for the questions! Jenny Vrentas will take over the mailbag next week, if you want to send her any questions now.
The top losses on offense were RB Mike Davis and WR Curtis Samuel.
Davis handled himself well in relief of Christian McCaffrey last year, but He struggled to make big plays, and defenses appeared to catch up with him over the latter part of the season.
Carolina drafted Samuel in the second round in 2017. His play and production improved each season in the league, highlighted by the 24th wide receiver ranking (212.10 fantasy points) in PPR leagues last year. Samuel added value as well as a change of pace option out of the backfield.
The Panthers added WR David Moore and TE Dan Arnold for bench depth.
Moore flashed over the past three seasons in Seattle, but he failed to secure a starting job. Moore has 13 touchdowns despite only having 78 catches in his career. He showed big-play ability in 2018 and 2019 when he averaged 17.3 yards per catch.
Over the past four seasons, Arnold alternated homes between Arizona and New Orleans. He reached new heights in 2020 (31/438/4) with Kyler Murray throwing him the ball.
On defense, Carolina signed DE Haason Reddick, LB Denzel Perryman, and CB A.J. Bouye.
Reddick comes off his best season in the NFL thanks to a switch back to a pass rusher on the defensive line. He has four years of experience while being drafted in the first round by the Cardinals in 2017.
Perryman worked over the bench over the past three seasons. He plays well in run support, but he’ll see minimal snaps on passing downs.
Bouye played well in coverage in 2016 and 2017 with the Texans and Jaguars, but he lost his way last year while battling a shoulder injury. The NFL also suspended him for six games (two left in 2021) for failing a drug test.
CB Rasul Douglas left town to sign with the Raiders. He brought risk/reward value in coverage. Douglas will give up some damage in touchdowns, and wide receivers challenged him over the long field.
Draft
CB Jaycee Horn
His game offers an edge in press coverage, with the wheels to make up for a missed step. In addition, Horn stays connected to receivers in their patterns. He lacks the fire to shine in run support, but Horn has the tools to reach a higher ceiling in this area. His most significant challenge comes from his desire to hold receivers. Carolina expects him to start in his rookie season.
WR Terrance Marshall
He projects to be a vertical threat early in his career while doing damage on comeback throws. Marshall offers size (6’2” and 205 lbs.) and speed (4.38 40-yard dash on his pro day). However, his release looks questionable and lacks tempo. To reach a high level, he needs to add more fight to his game off the snap and at the top of his routes.
T Brady Christensen
Christensen’s skill set should fit in well with what the Panthers want to do running the ball with Christian McCaffrey. He plays with power and strength while firing off the snaps. His range looks limited in pass protection, pushing him to the guard position in Carolina.
TE Tommy Tremble
Tremble earned his way into the NFL as a blocker, but his frame (6’3” and 245 lbs.) isn’t ideal for a lead role at tight end. He continues to improve, but his growth in the passing game at Notre Dame was restricted by a pair of talented players in front of him on the depth chart. Tremble ran a 4.59 40-yard dash on his pro day while also showing short-area quickness. His hands look to be in question when facing tight coverage.
RB Chuba Hubbard
He runs with rhythm and vision while willing to take what a defense gives him. Hubbard has a north/south feel, but he can win on the outside when given daylight. He dominated his sophomore season at Oklahoma State (328/2,094/21), helped by a heavy workload (27 touches per week). Hubbard wasn’t the same player in 2020 (133/625/5 over seven games).
DT Daviyon Nixon
Nixon darts off the line, leading to early wins and disruption. His range is wide for his position while also possessing some variation to his pass rush. His shortfall comes from stalemates or losses when tied up at the line of scrimmage by stronger offensive linemen. Nixon needs more upper body strength to reach a higher ceiling.
CB Keith Taylor
Taylor has yet to grow into his frame (6’2” and 185 lbs.), putting a damper on his ceiling. His vision and feel for play development aren’t at an NFL level. He moves better when attacking the line of scrimmage with the foundation to handle receivers in press coverage. His overall speed is a weak link over the long field. Taylor also lacks playmaking skills. For now, he only has value in tight coverage in the red zone.
G Deonte Brown
Brown started for three seasons at Alabama, one of the top college programs in the country. He is a beast of a man who will be a load to move by a straight-on defender. His range isn’t ideal while offering the power and quickness to open holes quickly in the run game.
WR Shi Smith
Smith showed improvement in his route running last year. His future lies in the slot while also having the speed to beat a defender deep. He makes plays in the open field with the willingness to fight for his space in tight quarters after facing bump and run coverage. Smith needs to be more physical on his release and out of his breaks to create a larger passing window.
LS Thomas Fletcher
Fletcher will compete for the long-snapping job on field goals and punts for the Panthers.
DT Phil Hoskins
Hoskins earns his success with quickness off the line, leading to pressure on the quarterback and disruption in the run game. With the development of his hands and more strength, he’ll become more dangerous when challenged by power.
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Offensive Line
Carolina dropped to 21st in rushing yards (1,704) with 19 touchdowns and only six runs over 20 yards. They averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 25.4 rushing attempts per game.
The Panthers fell to 17th in passing yards (4,129) with 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. They gained only 7.5 yards per pass attempt with 55 completions over 20 yards. Their offensive line allowed 36 sacks (58 in 2019).
LT Cameron Erving
The Browns drafted Erving in the first round in 2015. He has been a liability in run blocking in every season. The Cowboys gave him five starts at left tackle last year, leading to the best play of his career in pass protection. A knee injury cost him the first six weeks and the final five games.
Carolina can’t trust him to start, leaving Greg Little as the top player to unseat Erving for the starting job. The Panthers drafted him in the second round in 2019, but injuries led to 21 missed games over the past two seasons.
LG Pat Elflein
Between the Vikings and the Jets in 2020, Elflein made seven starts. His play has been a disaster in pass protection over the past three years while showing regression in run blocking with the Jets. The Panthers paid him $13.5 million for three seasons, suggesting they are the greater fool.
C Matt Paradis
The Panthers gave Paradis 32 starts over the last two years, but he failed to match his previous success with the Broncos. The loss of Christian McCaffrey was a significant part of regression in run blocking. Paradis did regain momentum on pass protection. He has the talent and resume to be a top-tier player at his position.
RG John Miller
Miller made 14 starts in his first year with Carolina. He missed two games with ankle and knee injuries. When on the field, Miller failed to make an impact in any area. He has six seasons of experience in the NFL while never ranking as a top player. His game did look on the uptick in 2016 after getting drafted in the third round in 2015. That season Miller graded as a neutral player at his position while making 16 starts for the Bills.
RT Taylor Moton
Moton made 48 starts over the last three seasons. His run blocking continues to improve where he can now be called a plus player. Moton plays well in pass protection. The Panthers drafted him in the second round in 2017.
OL Snapshot
The center and right tackle positions look to be in good hands for the Panthers. I don’t trust Cameron Fleming to protect the blindside. Brady Christensen should find his way into the starting lineup at some position in 2021. With two pluses and a neutral, Carolina still gets a below-par grade for the offensive line.
Offense
The Panthers had about the same success last year throwing the ball as 2019, but they gained more per pass attempt (7.5 – 6.5). Executing scoring plays in the red zone remains an area of weakness. Carolina ran the ball 42.5 percent of the time compared to 37.8 percent with a healthy Christian McCaffrey in 2019 and a different coaching staff. The hint here should be that the Panthers should be more active in the run game in 2021.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold
Over three seasons with the Jets, Darnold made 38 starts, leading to a 13-25 record with unimpressive stats across the board. He averaged only 6.6 yards per pass attempt with 45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. His completion rate (59.8) peaked in 2019 (61.9). Darnold became more active as a runner last season (37/237/2).
Darnold passes over 300 yards in five career games while attempting over 34 passes in only 31.6 percent of his starts. In 2020, he had no matchups with more than two passing touchdowns, pushing his failure to 30 of his last 32 contests.
The Panthers threw the ball 34.4 times a game in 2020, which ranked 22nd in the league.
Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, Darnold comes off the board as the 27th quarterback. Carolina has the top pass-catching running back in the league, plus two proven lead wide receivers. Terrance Marshall should help as the WR3 in his rookie season. In the end, Darnold needs to prove he belongs in the NFL as a starting quarterback while also staying healthy. Only a wait-and-see fantasy option with potential matchup value if the Panthers’ offense shows growth in 2021.
Other Options: P.J. Walker, Will Grier
Running Backs
With Christian McCaffrey in 2020, the Panthers gained only 4.1 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per catch compared to excellent success in both areas in 2018 (5.1 and 8.1) and 2019 (4.9 and 8.6). Their backs finished last year with 430 touches for 2,035 yards and 19 touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey led RBs in PPR scoring in 2018 (387.0) and 2019 (471.2) while being a massive edge (scored 154.30 fantasy points over the next-best running back) two years ago. His play over three games (374 combined yards with six touchdowns and 17 catches) last year led to 30.13 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
In 2019, he finished with 403 touches while only being the third player in NFL history to gain over 1,000 yards rushing (1,387) and receiving (1,005). McCaffrey gained over 100 yards rushing in six of his first nine games, but none over the final seven weeks. Carolina featured him more in the passing games (68/609/1) over his downturn in rushing yards, highlighted by three outings (11/121, 11/82, and 15/119). McCaffrey had 10+ catches in five games.
Last year he averaged 28.7 touches per game. McCaffrey missed 13 weeks with ankle, thigh, and shoulder injuries.
Fantasy Outlook: McCaffrey has first overall ADP in the early draft season, rightfully so. The left side of his offensive line has some question marks, and Sam Darnold needs to be a much better player in the Panthers’ offense. More of the same while offering a high floor and explosive ceiling.
Chuba Hubbard
Over three seasons at Oklahoma State, Hubbard gained 4,097 yards with 36 touchdowns and 53 catches. He averaged 5.9 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per catch. When at his best in 2019, Hubbard rushed over 100 yards in 12 of his 13 starts, highlighted by four games with over 200 yards (26/221/3, 32/256/3, 25/296/1, and 20/223/2). He had over 20 touches in every game except Week 2 (8/44/1).
Fantasy Outlook: Hubbard gives the Panthers a higher ceiling player to backup McCaffrey in 2021. He runs with patience and the vision to make big plays. His ADP (165) is favorable for a fantasy owner looking to buy an upside handcuff. If I draft Christian McCaffrey, I’m making sure to roster Hubbard.
Other Options: Rodney Smith, Reggie Bonnafon, Trenton Cannon
Wide Receivers
Carolina completed over two-thirds of their passes to the wide receiver position last season, leading to 80 percent of their passing yards. Their wideouts finished with 252 catches for 3,301 yards and 11 touchdowns on 375 targets. The production grew by about 25 percent from 2019, but the Panthers only threw to them 41 more times than the previous year.
DJ Moore
Moore finished with similar yards and touchdowns in 2019 (1,175/4) and 2020 (1,193/4), but the Panthers gave him 17 fewer targets (118). As a result, his catch rate fell to 55.9 percent compared to 64.4 in 2019. The change at quarterback led to Moore working more as a deep threat (18.1 yards per catch). He finished with 19 catches of 20 yards or more while also hitting six passes for 40 yards or more.
Moore failed to add a touchdown in his four games (8/120, 7/127, 6/131, and 5/101) with over 100 yards receiving. Midseason, he gained between 93 and 96 yards in four of his six matchups with all four of his scores. Carolina gave him over five catches in only three games. Moore averaged 9.8 targets over his final five games (27/457).
Fantasy Outlook: Moore has the potential to be a 100-plus catch receiver with plenty of success in yards. He needs to improve his scoring ability to move to elite WR1 status. Over the past two years, he ranked 16th and 25th in wide receiver scoring in PPR leagues. His ADP (53) in late June in 12-team formats priced him as the 20th wideout. My bet says he beats his price point with a 100/1,300/7 type season.
Robby Anderson
After failing to live up to expectations over four seasons in New York, Anderson developed into a high-volume receiver in Carolina. He caught 95 of his 136 targets (69.9 percent) for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. Anderson gained a career-low of 11.5 yards per catch.
The Panthers gave him his best opportunity over the first five weeks (36/489/1) while averaging 9.2 targets. Over his final nine starts, Anderson failed to gain over 95 yards in any matchup, and compiled 49 catches for 456 yards and two touchdowns. Carolina gave him 8.6 targets per game over this span.
In his final two years in New York with Sam Darnold starting at quarterback, He caught 88 of his 164 targets (53.7 percent) for 1,353 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Fantasy Outlook: Anderson has an ADP of 84 in the early draft season while ranking as backend WR3. His history with Darnold doesn’t paint a repeated picture. However, I like his growth, and the Panthers’ coaching staff did figure out how to get the most out of Anderson. I’ll set his 2021 bar at 75 catches for 1,000 yards with five to seven scores.
Terrance Marshall
In 2019, Marshall caught a piece of the Joe Burrow ride to the national championship, leading to 46 catches for 671 yards and 13 touchdowns. He flashed over the first seven games last year (48/731/10) before opting out. His best output came in the third game (11/235/3) of the season against Missouri.
Fantasy Outlook: Marshall has a professional feel with the talent to develop into a WR2 in the Panthers’ offense down the road. His ceiling falls on his motivation to work hard on his route running. This draft season, he’ll be found after the 15th round in 12-team leagues.
David Moore
Early in 2021, Moore should draw the WR3 snaps for the Panthers. He played well in a limited role over the past three years with Russell Wilson, leading to 78 catches for 1,163 yards and 13 touchdowns on 134 targets. Last year, he set a career-high in catches (35) and touchdowns (6) while being playable in fantasy leagues in three weeks (3/48/1, 3/95/1, and 4/71/1).
Fantasy Outlook: The change in quarterback alone sets a much lower floor and ceiling for Moore. He offers no starting fantasy value in 2021.
Shi Smith
Smith worked as a possession receiver over four seasons at South Carolina, leading to 174 catches for 2,204 yards and 13 touchdowns on 273 targets. In 2020 in nine matchups, he caught 57 passes for 633 yards and four scores.
Other Options: Brandon Zylstra, Keith Kirkwood, Marken Michel
Tight Ends
The Panthers’ had the second-worst tight end output (26/196/2) in 2020. Their lack of talent at the position is why Teddy Bridgewater threw so many passes to his wide receivers. In 2018 and 2019, Carolina scored just over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues at the tight end position.
Dan Arnold
In his fourth season, Arnold showed growth in his game. He set career-highs in catches (31), receiving yards (438), touchdowns (4), and targets (45). His final stats would be an easy upgrade over the Panthers’ tight end production last year.
He gained over 40 yards in three matchups (2/57, 2/61/2, and 3/54) while only catching more than three passes in two games.
Fantasy Outlook: Improving player, but Arnold won’t see enough targets to be trusted in the fantasy market.
Tommy Tremble
Over his 19 games with the Fighting Irish, Tremble caught 35 balls for 401 yards with four touchdowns. Only once in his career did he catch more than four passes in a game or gain over 50 yards receiving.
Fantasy Outlook: Tremble needs time to develop in the passing game while possibly having the best fit as a move tight end on early downs. His speed will play well when overlooked by a defense in the deep passing game. There’s more here than meets the initial eye.
Other Options: Ian Thomas, Colin Thompson, Stephen Sullivan
Kicker
Joey Slye
In his two seasons with the Panthers, Slye made 79.4 percent of his field goals while missing five of his 71 extra points. He made an incredible eight of his 11 kicks over 50 yards in his rookie season. Unfortunately, Slye lost his way from long range in 2020 (1-for-6).
Fantasy Outlook: The length of his kicks and potential success gives Slye matchup value this season. Carolina has the tools on offense to push higher in scoring, giving him a chance at a better ranking in 2021 than expected.
Defense
The Panthers climbed to 20th in rushing yards allowed (1,936) with 17 touchdowns and 11 runs over 20 yards. They allowed only 25.5 rushing attempts per game, with ball carriers gaining 4.7 yards per rush.
Carolina slipped to 18th in passing yards allowed (3,825) with 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Their defense finished with only 29 sacks, with quarterbacks gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt.
DE Haason Reddick
After getting drafted in the first round in 2017, Reddick came up short rushing the quarterback over his first 48 games (7.5 sacks). His run defense continues to fade, but he turned into an impact pass rusher in 2020 (12.5 sacks) while adding six forced fumbles.
DE Brian Burns
In his second year in the league, Burns posted 58 tackles and 9.0 sacks while making only a slight improvement against the run. His game is built on attacking from the outside in the pass rush, where his speed, quickness, and moves create an edge. He needs to get stronger while adding bulk to his lower body. If stalled at the point of attack, his skill set comes across as mediocre. His range in pursuit grades well with minimal experience in pass coverage. Burns is on the verge of becoming an elite pass rusher.
DT Derrick Brown
Brown brings extreme power to the defensive line with the initial quickness to disrupt at the point of attack. His overall speed does limit his range and ability to finish in the pass rush. He uses his hands well while expecting to shine as a run clogger. Brown made 34 tackles with two sacks in his rookie season after getting drafted seventh overall. His run defense fell short of expectations.
DT Bravvion Roy
Roy gets a knock for his length, which is tied to his height (6’1”). However, he plays with power while showing the ability to attack quickly after the snap. His job is to be a run stopper up the middle while still having a chance to put heat on the quarterback. Roy made 29 tackles and one sack, but he struggled against the run.
LB Jermaine Carter
Carter made six starts in his third year in the NFL while seeing minimal snaps. He has minimal value in the pass rush while still struggling to find his way in the pass rush. Carter finished 46 tackles with no sacks.
LB Denzel Perryman
In his six seasons in the league, Perryman missed 27 out of a possible 96 games. He worked in a low-value rotational role for the Chargers while showing growth in run support. Perryman does miss too many tackles. Carolina needs to find a higher upside player to fill their void at middle linebacker.
LB Shaq Thompson
Thompson improved his tackle total in each year in the NFL while ranking highly in run support in every year except 2020. He set a career-high in tackles (114) with no sacks.
CB Donte Jackson
Jackson has electric speed (4.32) and coverage skills, but he lacks size (5’11” and 178 lbs.) and strength. Even with talent and athletic ability, Jackson falls short in vision with risk in run support. Over his first three seasons in the NFL, after Carolina added him in the second round in 2018, he improved against the run while doing a good job keeping wide receivers in front of him. Jackson made some mistakes in touchdowns while picking three interceptions and 11 defended passes.
CB Jaycee Horn
The Panthers addressed their weakness at their lead cornerback position with the selection of Horn in this year’s draft. He has do-it-all upside while needing some time to develop.
S Jeremy Chinn
Chinn offers an intriguing combination of size (6’3’ and 220 lbs.), speed (4.45 forth), and strength (20 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine in 2020) to the safety position. He projects well in coverage with the build to win vs. the run. His challenge comes with his vision and anticipation. Chinn would have the most growth with improvement in the mental part of the game. After getting drafted in the second round in his rookie season, he made 117 tackles with one sack, one interception, five defended passes, and two touchdowns. Chinn allowed too many touchdowns with risk against the run.
S Kenny Robinson
Robinson has a playmaking skill set, but he lacks the foundation in speed and quickness to shine in coverage. His game plays well when moving forward in run support, but Robinson will miss some tackles. His vision does limit his upside when asked to decide between run and pass plays. He finished with almost playing time in his rookie season.
Fantasy Defense Snapshot
The defensive line has an intriguing structure between run stopping and pass rush on the outside. Carolina has a developing playmaking safety and one top player at linebacker. The cornerback position looks improved, but there will be some growing pains. From a fantasy perspective, the Panthers’ defense will provide matchup value in some games.
2021 NFL Draft, organized team activities, and minicamps now complete, teams are preparing for the start of training camp. Unlike previous seasons, when camps opened on various dates, 29 of 32 teams will get back to work on July 27, 2021. Pittsburgh and Dallas play in the Hall of Fame Game, so their camps begin on July 21. Defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay can report to camp starting on July 24.
While the NFL is in a short summer slumber, there are loads of preseason betting options at top-ranked U.S. sportsbooks like DraftKings. From Division champions and team win totals to Season Specials and Super Bowl LVI odds, NFL futures betting is packed with choices. This betting preview focuses on the odds to be one of the 18 teams that will not make the playoffs. Let’s dig in and uncover some value.
We track our preseason picks and publish hedge betting advice during the regular season when warranted. SI premium subscribers receive betting plays, updates, and articles, as soon as they are published.
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San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Odds
Injuries are a hazard in the sports world and that's certainly true in the NFL. While several star players suffered injuries last season, no team had more quality players miss time than San Francisco. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, plus a host of players on defense, missed at least half of the season. That’s a major reason why the 49ers finished last in the NFC West with a 6-10 record.
Trotting out four different starting quarterbacks didn’t help either and the QB situation remains unsettled. DraftKings has Garoppolo (-278) as the favorite to start over rookie QB Trey Lance (+220) in Week 1. The NFC West will be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL this season. I called UNDER 10.5 on the 49ers win total and have the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks both finishing ahead of San Francisco.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers to Make the Playoffs - NO (+144)
Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook on 07/29/21
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Odds
An era has ended and the horizon is slightly hazy in New Orleans. For the first time since 2005, someone other than QB Drew Brees will be the Saints' Week 1 starter. That sets up a training camp battle between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. No matter who wins the starting role, a QB by committee situation is brewing in New Orleans. That will make returning to form somewhat more difficult for WR Michael Thomas.
Key free-agent losses, including CB Janoris Jenkins and DE Trey Hendrickson, depleted the Saints’ defense during the offseason. I have Tampa Bay winning the NFC South for the first time since 2007. The NFC East, West, and North all have a shot at sending two teams to the playoffs.
The New Orleans positive YES price appears suspicious and may be a hook. I will pay the juice and bet on the Saints missing the postseason.
Pick: New Orleans Saints to Make the Playoffs - NO (-136)
Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook on 07/29/21
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Odds
Rolling along on cruise control, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 317–188 during an 11–0 start last year. Injuries, plus COVID-19 issues, derailed the ride and the Steelers lost five of their final six games. That includes a 48–37 loss at home to Cleveland in the AFC Wild Card round. Pittsburgh is hoping they have found their next Le’Veon Bell as they drafted Alabama RB Najee Harris with the 24th pick in the draft.
Harris is expected to have a heavy load as the rookie is already at the top of the depth chart. Some of that load may be tough sledding as the Steelers lost four starting offensive linemen during the offseason. The players stepping in are not in the same class as the players who left.
While I believe Pittsburgh will sneak past their 8.5 (-105) win total line, a 9–8 record won’t be enough to earn a playoff berth in the AFC.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers to Make the Playoffs - NO (-210) PASS
Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook on 07/29/21
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Playoff Odds
Following a 27-20 Week 1 win, as 8-point home dogs against the Colts, Jacksonville lost 15 straight games. After the New York Jets (2-14) won two of their final three games, the Jaguars “earned” the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Jacksonville used the top pick to select Clemson Tigers’ QB Trevor Lawrence. He joins Jaguars' new head coach Urban Meyer trying to turn around an offense that averaged 19.1 points per game last season.
Jacksonville also had the No. 25 pick and they reunited Lawrence with Clemson RB Travis Etienne. It will be interesting to see how the Jaguars use him, considering RB James Robinson posted 1,414 total yards, plus 10 touchdowns during his rookie season. Jacksonville still has concerns with a defense that allowed 30.8 points per game.
