mardi 31 août 2021

New on SI: NFL WR Dez Bryant Catches Ball from Tennis Star Alexander Zverev at U.S. Open

After Zverev increased his winning streak to 12 matches, he threw an autographed tennis ball to a familiar NFL face.

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Alexander Zverev, the No. 4 tennis player in the world and the Tokyo Olympics gold medalist, signed several tennis balls before throwing one into the crowd of spectators after winning his first round match at the 2021 U.S. Open.

The spectator who caught his pass was free agent wide receiver Dez Bryant. In true Bryant fashion, he caught the ball with ease.

Following the celebratory gesture, Zverev will look to win his first Grand Slam to add to his Olympic gold medal. The 24-year-old won his first-round match against Sam Querrey 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 on Tuesday. 

With the victory against Querrey, Zverev extended his winning streak to 12 matches. The German finished runner-up in the 2020 U.S. Open final. 

As for Bryant, the three-time Pro Bowler has yet to sign with a NFL team for the 2021 season. However, in July, Bryant tweeted that he "has faith" that he will land on a roster.

In his quest to land a spot, Bryant also posted workout videos showcasing the "grind" he has put in.

Until Bryant signs with a team, he can enjoy catching a signed tennis ball from Zverev.

More Tennis Coverage:

New on SI: Urban Meyer: COVID-19 Vaccination Status Taken Into Consideration for Jags' Roster Cuts

Unvaccinated players face stricter protocols, and if deemed a high-risk close contact or test positive for COVID-19, they would miss substantial time.

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Urban Meyer commented during a press conference Tuesday that a player's COVID-19 vaccination status was taken into consideration for the Jaguars' roster cuts. 

"Everyone was considered," Meyer said. "That was part of the [considerations such as] production, let's start talking about this, and also is he vaccinated or not? Can I say that that was a decision maker? It was certainly in consideration."

There's a significant difference in COVID-19 protocols between vaccinated and unvaccinated players. If deemed a high-risk close contact or test positive for the virus, an unvaccinated player would miss substantial time compared to a vaccinated player. 

Per a report from the NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, fully vaccinated players and staff members will be tested every week while unvaccinated players will reportedly be required to take a COVID-19 test every day at the club facility. 

If a vaccinated player tests positive, they are required to be out for 10 days unless they receive two negative PCR tests separated by 24 hours. Meanwhile, positive unvaccinated players must be out for the 10 days and face a three-day return-to-play protocol. 

The league did not update to its COVID-19 close-contact protocols, per Pelissero. Fully vaccinated individuals will not be designated high-risk close contacts, but unvaccinated must test immediately. Even if they return a negative test, they will miss five days. 

More NFL Coverage:

Tom Brady's Forgotten Rookie Year
Predicting Every Game of the 2021 Season
Mac Jones Won The Starting Job And It Didn't Make Sense to Keep Cam Newton as a Backup 
An Early Look at the 2022 NFL Quarterback Carousel

New on SI: Ravens, Stephen & Renee Bisciotti Foundation Donate $1M to Hurricane Ida Relief Efforts

The donations will go towards The Greater New Orleans Foundation, the United Way of Southeast Louisiana and the American Red Cross.

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The Ravens announced that they and The Stephen & Renee Bisciotti Foundation are donating $1 million to Hurricane Ida relief funds, which will assist The Greater New Orleans Foundation, the United Way of Southeast Louisiana and the American Red Cross.

"The Ravens have a special connection with New Orleans, which is filled with wonderful people who are now in great need," the franchise said in a statement. "The community treated our organization with first-class hospitality throughout the week of Super Bowl XLVII. We have great affection for the city and its people, so it was especially important for us to aid their recovery efforts."

Ida made landfall in the Gulf Coast on Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane, and according to CNN, five people have died so far. Even though hundreds have been rescued, search-and-rescue crews have not been able to go to some of the hardest hit areas. 

Per Associated Press, hundreds of thousands Louisianans are without electricity, tap water and very little gasoline. Mayor LaToya Cantrell said New Orleans will use 70 transit buses as cooling sites and there will be drive-thru food, ice and water locations set up on Wednesday. 

The National Weather Service issued a heat advisory for central and northwest Louisiana and parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas from noon to 7 pm CT Wednesday, expecting heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees. In a 2:26 pm CT announcement, the NWS included southern Louisiana and Mississippi in the advisory, stating it'll be 10 am to 5 pm on Wednesday with heat index levels up to 107 degrees. 

Earlier Tuesday, Saints head coach Sean Payton said the team would be away from New Orleans through September as the city recovers. On Monday, owner Gayle Benson and the Saints released a statement, saying they have "have activated our Gulf Coast Renewal Fund with Owner Gayle Benson making an initial donation of $1 million to support our community throughout Louisiana and the Gulf Coast. Those wishing to donate can do so by going to NewOrleansSaints.com/hurricaneida."

New on SI: The Hurry-Up: Cam Newton Out in New England, Rookie Mac Jones Named Starter

SI's Albert Breer is joined by Charlie Weis and analyst Brady Quinn to discuss the news of Cam Newton and the Pats parting ways and naming Mac Jones the starter.

Former Notre Dame head coach (and former New England Patriots offensive coordinator)  Charlie Weis and former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn reunite on The Hurry-Up today. Weis and Quinn join SI senior writer Albert Breer to discuss the news out of New England today. Former MVP Cam Newton is officially out in New England leaving rookie Mac Jones to step into the starting job. 

Breer leads the reaction to Cam leaving and what Jones starting for the Pats in a few weeks means for the squad this season. 

New on SI: Report: Saints' Michael Thomas Expected to Open Season on PUP List

The wide receiver will miss at least the first five games of the season as New Orleans will reportedly place him on the physically unable to perform list.

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Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas will miss at least the first five games of the season as the franchise is expected to place him on the physically unable to perform list, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Thomas will be unable to practice until the first six weeks of the season have passed, but due to the Saints' having a bye week in Week 6, he will initially miss just five games.

The first game Thomas could appear in is against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football in Week 7. 

Thomas had his ankle surgically repaired in June and had long been reportedly expected to miss the start of the 2021 season. However, coach Sean Payton recently said Thomas was "ahead of schedule" in his recovery.

The three-time Pro Bowler played in seven regular-season games in 2020 due to injuries and disciplinary issues. The ankle injury that will delay his start to his '21 season occurred in Week 1 of last year. While Thomas returned in Week 9, he briefly returned to the injured reserve late in the season. 

He finished his 2020 campaign with 40 catches for 438 yards and didn't catch his first touchdown until the playoffs.

For his career, however, Thomas, 28, has been one of the NFL's most productive receivers since entering the league in 2016. He's tallied 510 catches in just 70 career games, setting the NFL record with 149 receptions in '19.

The Saints open their season against the Packers on Sept. 12. 

While the game was initially scheduled to be played in New Orleans, the game is no longer expected to be played in the city due to Hurricane Ida. The team is currently practicing in Dallas amid the storm. 

More NFL Coverage:

New on SI: Bill Belichick May Have Outsmarted Everyone Again

The Patriots are now all-in on Mac Jones, and they may have found a potential star hiding in plain sight.

Bill Belichick is probably right, because Bill Belichick is usually right, and so we should pause now to ponder what it means if he is. Belichick just stuffed the rest of his career into Mac Jones’s pocket, just four months after Jones was the fifth quarterback taken in the draft. We are left with the astounding but increasingly likely possibility that Belichick outsmarted the league yet again.

The Patriots might have found a star hiding in plain sight: a national-championship winning, All-America quarterback at the nation’s most successful college program. We’ll see how Jones does—next week, next month, next year. But if he excels, I would not want to be the general manager who has to explain how I missed on that guy.

Well … uh … I know he showed he could do all this at Alabama … but ... um … you see …

Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

Maybe Belichick is wrong. But if he’s right, he will be right because of a concept that is very simple yet still gets lost sometimes: Playing quarterback in the NFL is primarily about figuring out where the ball should go and getting it there. Arm strength, foot speed, athleticism, work ethic and the ability to read defenses are all just factors that help a quarterback accomplish that task.

If you look at the best quarterbacks of the modern era, they all knew where the ball should go and got it there. So simple it sounds ridiculous. But think about Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. There are quarterbacks who threw harder than all of them and never made it. There are quarterbacks who could read defenses just as quickly but couldn’t deliver the ball fast or accurately enough. There are quarterbacks who could throw hard enough and read defenses well enough but reacted very poorly to 300-pound men charging toward them. Somehow, the combination of traits has to add up to enough.

Now go back to last spring. So much of the predraft talk was about Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and

whether he would “drop” in the draft. Fields put up great numbers for the Buckeyes and won a ton. He is a phenomenal athlete: great arm, fast runner, incredibly tough. There were questions about his ability to go to his second read, which were refuted by those who said he actually went to his second read frequently. But the question was not whether Fields could do it; it was how quickly he could do it. It requires a specific kind of intelligence—the ability to process and react in less than one second. Some people who are brilliant in many areas of life would struggle with it; others, who struggle in school and show very little intellectual curiosity, excel at it.

Behind a fantastic line at Ohio State, with NFL talent at receiver, Fields had plenty of time to find open targets. That won’t be the case in the NFL. Maybe he will show he can do it. But Belichick would’ve had to move up only four spots in the draft to get Fields, and there are no indications he tried.

He waited for Jones instead. Belichick is not the type to share all his reasons for that, but we don’t need to know all those reasons to know this: He believed in Jones’s ability to figure out where the ball should go and get it there.

Belichick’s genius takes many forms. But it only takes those forms because he has so much trust in himself. He believes in what he sees, no matter what anybody else thinks or how it looks on the outside. Trusted advisers like Jones’s coach at Alabama, Nick Saban, can help shape Belichick’s decisions, but the media narrative almost never does.

If Jones becomes a star, it’ll end the argument that Belichick only won because of Brady—an argument that is just as silly as arguing that Brady only won because of Belichick.

New England’s offense can bring out the best in Jones, but Jones can also bring out the best in the offense. Belichick can drastically change game plans each week because Jones can handle it. The Patriots’ free-agent shopping spree last winter will also look different if the starting quarterback during the duration of those deals is on a rookie contract.

The game has changed, and coaches are much smarter about using running quarterbacks. There is more room for quarterbacks with more varied skill sets, which is great and makes the game more entertaining. But the primary task has not changed.

Brady is great largely because of two traits that help him complete that task: He maintains his poise when he is about to get hit, and he moves his feet just well enough to buy himself time. His 40-yard-dash time has never mattered. I am not comparing Jones with Brady; I am comparing Belichick with Belichick. He saw what made Brady special before almost anybody else. He kept him on the roster as a rookie and believed in him when he got a chance to start. Now he trusts what he sees in Jones. Belichick scouted him, he waited for him, he picked him, he made him earn the job, and now he is ready to roll—this season, and beyond. Maybe Belichick is wrong. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

More NFL Coverage:

Mac Won the Starting Job; No Sense to Keep Cam as Backup
Predicting Every Game of the 2021 Season
How Derrick Henry Handles a Throwback Workload
An Early Look at the 2022 NFL Quarterback Carousel

New on SI: Inside the Decision to Have Peyton and Eli Manning Work Without a Host on ‘Monday Night Football’: TRAINA THOUGHTS

Why will it just be the brothers on the ‘Monday Night Football’ alternate telecast?

1. It was reported Monday that ESPN’s alternate Monday Night Football telecast featuring Peyton and Eli Manning, which will air on ESPN2 for 10 weeks this season, will not have a host or play-by-play person. The broadcast will just feature the two Mannings with an array of guests.

Sources have told me that just two people auditioned with Peyton and Eli: Good Morning Football’s Kyle Brandt and ESPN’s Mina Kimes.

Both reportedly performed very well, but on Aug. 23, Peyton and Eli called the Jaguars-Saints Monday Night Football game without a host as a test. The brothers apparently knocked it out of the park and convinced ESPN and Peyton’s Omaha Productions that a host wasn’t needed. 

While it would've been great to see

Brandt react to an Angry Run in real time, this isn’t totally shocking. The alternate broadcast was always going to be The Peyton Manning Show and a host, no matter who it was and how good they were, could have gotten in the way.

This was covered in depth on last week’s SI Media Podcast with James Andrew Miller:

The ESPN alternate telecast was intriguing even before the decision to go without a host. Now things are even more interesting.

What will happen if the alternate broadcast is a success? Would ESPN ever turn over the main Monday Night Football telecast to Peyton and Eli? Or would ESPN tell Peyton that to get the main Monday Night Football gig, the show would need to add a play-by-play person?

Also, what will constitute “success” here? Ratings will automatically be up for ESPN2, because an NFL game will automatically generate higher ratings than anything else ESPN2 would’ve aired in that time slot, even if it’s an alternate telecast.

The key will be week-to-week growth for the show.

Will fans tune into the Peyton and Eli show after Week 1, when the curiosity factor wears off? Will fans even remember there’s an alternate telecast after the novelty wears off?

You can be sure Twitter will go wild for Peyton and Eli’s broadcast, but Twitter isn’t the real world. Will Offline America be so enamored with the brothers’ presentation of the game that it will tune in to a nontraditional telecast?

Quality won’t seem to be an issue as much as getting people to change their viewing habits. From everything I’ve heard, Peyton has been lights out during practice games/auditions and that he was made for this format.

2. I didn't find it shocking at all that Bill Belichick would cut Cam Newton and go with rookie Mac Jones as a his starting quarterback, but apparently everyone else did. Here are some amusing tweets about the big move Belichick made Tuesday.

3. The college football season kicked off Saturday. That means the return of the single-greatest weekly segment on all of sports television: Scott Van Pelt's Bad Beats. Enjoy.

4. The Blue Jays gave us one of the most visually satisfying plays you'll ever see Monday night.

Speaking of the Blue Jays, we love this home run celebration.

5. Last week, Traina Thoughts told you about the Milk Crate Challenge and that it was so dangerous TikTok was banning the videos. Monday, right before the season kicks off, Steelers wideout JuJu Smith Schuster took the challenge, but no harm was done.

6. The latest episode of the SI Media Podcast features two interviews.

First up is Nate Burleson, who has left the NFL Network's Good Morning Football to cohost CBS This Morning. Burleson discusses what went into his decision to make the career change, why the move wasn't an automatic "yes" and why the job at CBS News appealed to him. The former NFL wide receiver also talks about the reaction to the NFL playoff game he called on Nickelodeon last year, his favorite Good Morning Football memory and the hardest job he's ever had. He also gives us a great Jay-Z impersonation.

Following Burleson, writer, author and reporter James Andrew Miller joins the podcast. Miller shares his insights into ESPN's alternate Monday Night Football telecast with Peyton and Eli Manning, Stephen A. Smith’s reportedly getting Max Kellerman removed from First Take, the Sopranos prequel movie, the upcoming season of Curb Your Enthusiasm and much more.

The podcast wraps up with the weekly “Traina Thoughts” segment. This week, Jimmy and Sal Licata from WFAN and SNY discuss whether you can do a sports debate show with someone you don't like, Hard Knocks, SummerSlam, CM Punk’s return to wrestling and more.

You can listen to the podcast below or download it on Apple, Spotify and Stitcher.

You can also watch the SI Media Podcast on YouTube.

7. RANDOM VIDEO OF THE DAY: With August coming to a close, we are getting closer and closer to the October premiere of Curb Your Enthusiasm. So we need some Larry David today.

Be sure to catch up on past editions of Traina Thoughts and check out the Sports Illustrated Media Podcast hosted by Jimmy Traina on AppleSpotify or Stitcher. You can also follow Jimmy on Twitter and Instagram.

New on SI: Cam Newton Released, Mac Jones Named Starter; Fantasy Ripple Effects Across Offense

Rookie Mac Jones is thrust into a starting role and the effects will be felt across the offense for fantasy managers

The quarterback battle in New England is over, and it ended unexpectedly. Cam Newton was

released Tuesday morning, and rookie Mac Jones was named the Patriots' starting quarterback.

Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports

Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, was entering his second year with the team and was trying to hold off Jones, the Patriots' first-round draft pick out of Alabama, for the starting job. With Jones behind center, the fantasy stock of every skill position player in New England rises, and he becomes a viable fantasy backup option.

Jones's weapons aren't much on paper, but he has a diverse running back group, a solid crop of receivers, and two talented tight ends. He's also insured by one of the best offensive lines in football. Jones similarly had great protection at Alabama, which gave him the time to efficiently and effectively spread the ball around the field at a ridiculous 77% completion rate. He's not a threat to run like his predecessor, as Jones is much more stationary in the pocket. Given Tuesday's roster move, a true pocket-passer is clearly what head coach Bill Belichick wants in his signal-caller.

Below is a breakdown of the fantasy impact of Newton's release and Jones starting at quarterback have on each Patriots' skill-position groups.

Running Backs

(Damien Harris-James White-Rhamondre Stevenson)

Harris had the highest average draft position (ADP) of any Patriots player even before Jones was named the starter, and that's bound to shoot up. Without Newton poaching goal-line carries, getting designed runs called for him, or taking off and scrambling, the rushing offense goes through Harris.

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

Newton's exit from New England coupled with the trade of Sony Michel to the Rams are both massive shots in the arm for fantasy managers with Harris on their teams. For those who have yet to draft, you'll have to spend even greater draft capital to get Harris on your roster.

In 13 games last season, Harris carried the ball 137 times. The Patriots' top three rushers besides Harris from 2020 are no longer with the team, and together they leave behind a massive share in the running game. Newton matched Harris' 137 carries, Michel ran the ball 79 times and Rex Burkhead, who is now with the Texans, ate up 67 carries. Expect James White to still get the passing down work in the offense (Harris only had seven targets last season).

Rhamondre Stevenson impressed in the preseason, and he received ample opportunity to do so, getting 30 carries across three games. He broke off a 91-yard touchdown run against Washington in the preseason and averaged a ridiculous 7.2 yards per carry in running for an NFL-best 216 yards in the preseason.

Still, Harris is the running back you want in New England, and he stands to gain the most from Jones starting at QB.

Wide Receivers

(Nelson Agholor-Jakobi Meyers-Kendrick Bourne)

Jones doesn't have the same receiving options he did at Alabama, which is to say he doesn't have three first-rounders at his disposal. But the Patriots are trotting out a much improved receiving corps from what Newton had last season. Jones, a more traditional pocket pass than Newton, stands to gain from these offseason upgrades.

Agholor was not a sought-after receiver with Newton behind center, but he can likely perform in the same range he did in Las Vegas last season with Jones throwing to him. As the second option for Derek Carr (behind Darren Waller), Agholor transformed into a deep threat and posted career highs in yards per reception (18.7) and receiving yards (896). He hauled in eight touchdowns in the process for a WR21 finish. It's within reason for him to produce similarly in New England. With two tight ends to feed and a known pass-catching commodity at running back, Agholor won't get a ton of volume, but he proved last season he doesn't need it to produce. Jones showed he could throw the deep ball at Alabama and Agholor stands to gain. Consider Agholor a solid late-round depth addition on your bench.

© Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Meyers was the only Patriots pass-catcher worth rostering in 2020, and that's saying something considering he didn't catch a single touchdown. He led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in only 14 games and never found the end zone. With Jones, who tossed 41 touchdown passes his final season in college, Meyers' will break his 29-game scoreless streak to start his career. Meyers could fill the role that DeVonta Smith did for Jones. Meyers would be hard-pressed to match Smith's ridiculous Heisman numbers, but being Jones' No. 1 option is worth something — Smith finished with 117 catches that season, second on the team was 55.

Very few offenses support three fantasy-relevant receivers, and with the targets bound for tight ends in the Patriots offense, Bourne isn't a viable option. He, of course, stands to gain from the QB change but not enough at this point to draft.

Tight Ends

(Hunter Henry-Jonnu Smith)

Smith and Henry will cannibalize each other's targets, but at least now those targets are worth more. Jones' top two tight end targets at Alabama were not big factors in the offense, but too much shouldn't be made of that considering the receivers he had on hand.

Both Patriots' tight ends currently have ADPs beyond the top 12 tight ends, and it would be shocking if, especially now, one of them didn't finish as a TE1. Bump both Smith and Henry up in your rankings but know that it will still be frustrating week-to-week to predict which tight end will be the focal point of the offense. I still prefer Henry based on him outproducing Smith to this point in their careers, but they'll both be involved.

More from SI Fantasy:

Preseason Hot Takes & Reactions to Everything You Need to Know
• Super Deep Sleepers: Dive Underground on Draft Day
• Week 1 Rankings & Stat Projections

New on SI: Mac Jones Won the Starting Job, and It Didn’t Make Sense to Keep Cam Newton as a Backup

It became clear the rookie came along faster than expected, so the gig had to be his.

While there was a bit of a rush to paint Tuesday’s news of

the Patriots’ releasing Cam Newton as either some kind of non-vaccination revenge or general evidence of Belichickian cold heartedness, there exists another scenario that might be worth exploring.

For starters, Mac Jones outplayed Cam Newton this preseason. Jones, depending on who you ask, outplayed almost all rookie quarterbacks this preseason. The ball was out on time. He looked comfortable in the pocket. He nestled snugly into an offense that asks him to perform the kind of unsexy, mechanical tasks that he does particularly well. If you followed the diligent work of the New England football beat, you saw Jones begin to accumulate a larger share of the reps, which is another tell that Belichick’s mind was close to made up. He is a coach who crafted a legend not out of being evil, but out of being open to running a meritocracy.

Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports (Jones); Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY Network (Newton)

Also, Belichick likely has a great appreciation for Newton still. That’s why you would cut a guy soon after your mind is made up and not keep him buried on a depth chart. Many have asked why the Patriots wouldn’t just keep Newton because he’s a better quarterback than Brian Hoyer. That point is undebatable. But over the course of a year, Belichick probably got to know Newton well enough, and appreciate him enough as a competitor, to know that it wouldn’t be an ideal situation to put Newton or Jones in. He doesn’t want Jones looking over his shoulder. He doesn’t want Newton, who invigorated a locker room reeling from the loss of Tom Brady, forced to tuck in his feathers and assume the role of a subservient cheerleader.

It’s rarely painted this way, but there are times the Patriots can take into consideration a bit of humanity, and we might want to think of this situation as one of them. Underlying it all, of course, is the reality that Jones came on a little bit faster than expected. The way Belichick drafted and attacked free agency this offseason, it was clear he was building an offense that could either bolster a rookie quarterback or convert neatly into the kind of powerful, downhill rushing offense that would best suit Newton.

So when Jones flashed, Belichick had to think about Jones the way he did a young Brady. How long do you want someone larger than life (in Brady’s case, Drew Bledsoe; in Jones’s case, a former league MVP who showed last year that he can melt the attendees of a press conference or the heart of his supposed Grinch head coach) sitting there watching the developing rookie’s every move.

How long do you want someone who you probably genuinely appreciate—Newton waltzed his way through a stubborn Boston town struggling to get over the loss of their folk hero—to ride the bench, when he could be squeezing what’s left of his athletic prime elsewhere?

Newton’s status as an unvaccinated player obviously complicates matters. It must have caused some momentary frustration, as reports of a “door opening” for Jones surfaced soon after the news that Newton would have to miss practices. But Newton is not alone—not even close—among the fraternity of NFL quarterbacks, or even elite NFL players, who have made the decision not to vaccinate. If there was a concern that this issue would roil the locker room, then it is an active concern of nearly every NFL general manager and coach in the league. This argument can, and will, exist everywhere.

There is a good chance Newton will land somewhere quickly. Quarterback depth charts around the NFL are an utter mess and he’ll get the chance to play some meaningful snaps in 2021. His former head coach, Ron Rivera, would be wise to feel Newton out. The Dolphins, Bengals, Texans, Panthers, Colts and Broncos could all use an upgrade at their backup spot, competition for their starter or a little bit of both. He will factor into the story of the 2021 season somewhere, somehow.

Unless, of course, he remained in New England, where Newton would only have been a factor in terms of how he looked every time Jones threw a touchdown pass or struggled. That wasn’t going to work for either player involved. 

More NFL Coverage:

• Cam Newton's Rushing TDs Are Breaking the Leaderboards
• Predicting Every Game of the 2021 Season
How Derrick Henry Handles a Throwback Workload
An Early Look at the 2022 NFL Quarterback Carousel

New on SI: SI Betting Guide to NFL Player Props

The 2021 NFL season begins soon and it's time to find an edge in the betting market on season-long player prop over/under totals

With 

SI Sportsbook opening soon paired with my season-long and weekly NFL stat projections, my natural progression is to find flaws and opportunities in the betting lines to beat the books on futures and player props.

The goal is to set a fair outlook on each team’s offense and each player's injury risk and upside. By doing over four months of research, I hope to find betting opportunities on player props.

RB Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports

There are two excellent betting opportunities posted at the sportsbooks with Davis. My last set of projections have him rushing for 649 yards on 180 carries with six rushing touchdowns. His over/under in rushing yards is 800.5. I don’t view Davis as a season-long answer at running back. Over his six years in the league, he averaged only 3.7 yards per rush while also lacking explosiveness in the passing game (6.4 yards per catch).

The Falcons’ running backs gained 3.7 and 3.8 yards per rush in 2019 (325/1,217/9) and 2020 (378/1,444/12), showcasing the tiny holes created in their offensive line. In addition, Atlanta lost their starting center to free agency in the offseason.

Based on his career path and his new team, Davis would need more than 215 rushes (12.6 per week over 17 games) to reach 801 yards. I don’t expect him to keep the starting job all season based on his age (28) and his journeyman career path. The bets here are on the under on 800.5 yards and under 7.5 rushing touchdowns. Davis has 11 career rushing touchdowns over 62 career games. His success last year with Carolina (165/642/6 – 3.9 yards per rush) was the best of his career. The Falcons have a pair of big backs on their roster, which invites a rotation over 17 games at the goal line.

Both plays on Davis should be easy wins.

Bet: UNDER 800.5 rushing yards
Bet: UNDER 7.5 rushing touchdowns

RB Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

Over the past three seasons, Mostert gained an impressive 5.7 yards per rush despite only having seven career runs for 36 yards from 2015 and 2017. His best season came in 2019 (137/772/8) while flashing as well in 2020 (104/521/2) over eight contests.

His over/under in rushing yards (700.5) sits in a fair area, and he could reach this number with 141 carries if he gained 5.0 yards per carry.

My play on the under comes from his injury risk, and Mostert has never had over 137 rushes in his career at age 29. The 49ers have one of the better rushing offenses in the league, giving their starter plenty of chances to have success.

In 2020, Mostert missed time on three different occasions while also battling a knee issue in June and July.

Bet: UNDER 700.5 rushing yards

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

In late August, the prop betting lines for Smith-Schuster in receiving yards (790.5) and touchdowns (6) point to an opportunity on the over. He has been in the NFL for four seasons, with the past three coming as a starter.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

After a dominating 2018 as the Steelers' WR2 (111/1,426/7), he battled injuries the following year (42/552/3) over 12 games. Pittsburgh gave him 128 targets, which was the 15th-best wide receiver opportunity in the league. Despite his chances, he ranked 36th in receiving yards (831) due to the lowest output in yards per catch (8.6). In essence, Smith-Schuster finished with a good running back value in the length of his catches. He gained 13.7 yards per reception over his first 42 games, and the league average for wide receivers in 2020 came in at 12.6 yards.

Pittsburgh has three talented wide receivers plus two viable pass-catching tight ends. They also added a top-tier power runner who will be a factor in the passing game. However, their major question is their offensive line.

Pittsburgh will throw the ball 600 times, and their wideouts will be active (270/3,257/22). In my latest projections, I have Smith-Schuster on track for 87 catches for 924 yards and seven touchdowns while gaining 10.7 yards per catch. Based on this, he would need 74 catches to win on the over in receiving yards or a 23.8 percent drop from his catch total in 2020.

As for touchdowns, I don’t view it as strong of a play, but Smith-Schuster scored over six times in three seasons (7, 7, and 9) while averaging a touchdown in 44.8 percent of his games (7.6 scores projected over 17 weeks).

Bet: OVER 790.5 receiving yards
Bet: OVER 6 receiving touchdowns

WR Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills

The writing is on the wall for Davis to emerge as the WR2 for the Bills. In his rookie season, he caught 35 of his 62 targets for 599 yards and seven touchdowns. Buffalo had him on the field for 73.3 percent of their plays, confirming his WR2 status by snaps (797). The training camp news has been positive, and he continues to be a layup in drafts (ADP – 143). The sportsbooks set his betting line at 650.5 yards and 5.5 touchdowns. In my latest projection update, I have Davis catching 61 passes for 920 yards and eight touchdowns. The play here is over in his receiving yards.

Bet: OVER 650.5 receiving yards
Bet: OVER 5.5 receiving touchdowns

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Swift comes into Week 1 with concerns about his playing time due to an August groin issue. In his rookie season, he caught 46 passes for 357 yards and two scores over 13 games. His betting line on catches (52.5) and yards (375.5) looks low when adding in the Lions’ new head coach and offensive coordinator featured the running back in the passing game for the Saints (113/987/6) and the Chargers (128/890/4) in 2020. Last season, Detroit completed 89 passes for 712 yards and three touchdowns to their running backs.

The Lions brought in Jamaal Williams to split time at running back. Over his previous four seasons with the Packers, he averaged 30.5 catches for 240 yards and two scores. Swift is the better pass-catching, and I have him projected for 80 catches for 582 yards and three touchdowns (Williams – 28/185/1). Even if he missed a couple of games, he would still have a favorable opportunity to hit the over on catches and receiving yards.

Bet: OVER 52.5 receptions
Bet: OVER 375.5 receiving yards

More from SI Betting:

• Passing Yards Player Prop Betting Projections
• Rushing Yards Player Prop Betting Projections
2021 Highest-Scoring NFL Team by the Odds: Top-Five Best Bets
• 2022 College Football Playoff Championship Futures Breakdown & Odds


Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings in the high six-figures. He has been providing in-depth, analytical break downs for years all while helping his subscribers to countless titles and winnings across season-long & DFS. An inaugural inductee of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn can teach you how to prep like a champ!

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New on SI: Cam Newton on Patriots Release: 'Don't Feel Sorry for Me'

Cam Newton issued a statement Tuesday morning shortly after multiple reports of his release, thanking Patriots fans for their support.

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Shortly after reports surfaced that the Patriots were releasing Cam Newton, the veteran quarterback issued a statement thanking fans for their support.

"I really appreciate all the love and support during this time, but I must say...please don't feel sorry for me," Newton wrote in an Instagram post.

Newton struggled last season, his first with New England, as the franchise finished 7—9 and missed the playoffs. In 15 starts, Newton averaged a career-low 177.1 passing yards per game and finished the season with eight passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also had 592 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.

The 32-year-old Newton spent the first nine seasons of his NFL career with the Panthers, making three Pro Bowl appearances and winning the MVP award in 2015, becoming just the second Black quarterback to do so.

In recent years, Newton has dealt with a number of injuries, including having minor arm and abdomen injuries in 2020 and a Lisfranc injury in his left foot that required surgery in 2019. That season, his last in Carolina, Newton missed 14 games. He also previously underwent surgery for a shoulder injury that caused him to miss the final two games of the 2018 season.

Following Newton's release, Mac Jones—the Patriots' No. 15 pick in the 2021 NFL draft—is expected to be the team's Week 1 starter.

More NFL Coverage:

New on SI: Source: Patriots Release QB Cam Newton; Mac Jones to Start Week 1

Following Newton's release, Mac Jones, New England's No. 15 pick in the 2021 NFL draft, will be the team's Week 1 starter.

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original article
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The Patriots released quarterback Cam Newton on Tuesday, according to The MMQB's Albert Breer.

The news was first reported by The Boston Globe's Jim McBride.

Newton had been preparing for his second season with the franchise after re-signing on a one-year deal this past offseason. 

As a result of the release, Mac Jones, New England's No. 15 pick in the 2021 NFL draft, will be the team's Week 1 starter, per Breer.

The 32-year-old Newton struggled last season, his first with the Patriots, as the franchise finished 7—9 and missed the playoffs. In 15 starts, Newton averaged a career-low 177.1 passing yards per game and finished the season with eight passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also had 592 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.

Last Monday, amid the quarterback battle with Jones, the team announced Newton had to be away from the team until Aug. 26 after a "misunderstanding about tests conducted away from NFL facilities." Newton then returned to practice late last week. 

Jones, a former Alabama star who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting last year, threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns with four interceptions and a 77.4 completion percentage.

In the preseason, Jones completed 36 of his 52 pass attempts for 389 yards and one touchdown.

As recent as Aug. 29, coach Bill Belichick had yet to give an inclination as to who would start Week 1 for the Patriots. 

"No, we still have a lot of decisions to make," Belichick said after Sunday night's 22–20 win over the Giants in the preseason finale.

Newton started Sunday and played two series, all with the starters. Jones relieved Newton and played deep into the third quarter, all with the backups.

Newton is a three-time Pro Bowler and was the NFL's MVP in 2015, when he starred as a member of the Panthers. 

New England opens its season on Sept. 12 vs. the Dolphins.

More NFL Coverage:

New on SI: Why Some NFL Players Switched to Single-Digit Jersey Numbers

Players like Sterling Shepard and Patrick Queen shared their reasons for making the switch once the rule was loosened.

Patrick Queen charged toward Saints quarterback Taysom Hill, diving at his opponent’s legs and

forcing him to the ground for a loss of 12 yards. The Ravens linebacker stayed down for a moment, kneeling on the ground and flexing while a teammate came over and gave him a few taps on the helmet as the crowd at M&T Bank Stadium cheered.

The play didn’t just force a fourth down in an August preseason game; it also gave fans a glimpse of something the NFL had never seen before: a sack by a player wearing a single-digit jersey number.

Since the league imposed a stricter system in 1973 (before sacks were official), only quarterbacks, kickers and punters could don single-digit numbers. But, in April, the longstanding restrictions changed when NFL owners accepted a proposal from the Chiefs.

Players across the league, like Queen, quickly took advantage of the opportunity. Though, in order to do so, each one (unless they changed teams over the offseason) had to buy out the remaining inventory of unsold jerseys with their former number, which could be a hefty price in some cases.

Here are some of the best stories behind number switch-ups around the league.

Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY Network (Shepard); Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports (Queen)

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants: switched from 87 to 3

Shepard has tried to honor his father, who died when he was 6 years old, throughout his football career. When he first entered the league as a second-round pick for the Giants in 2016, Shepard chose No. 87, one of the six numbers Derrick Shepard wore throughout his time in the NFL as a wide receiver for Washington, the Cowboys and the Saints from 1987 to ’91.

Though 87 carried a special meaning in that regard, three is the number Shepard really associates with his father.

That’s what his father wore at Oklahoma, where he went from walk-on to starting wide receiver for the 1985 national championship team. Three is the number that was on the helmet the Sooners sent Shepard following the fatal heart attack in ’99, telling the young boy he’d one day follow in the footsteps of his father (who also coached there for a brief period) and uncles. Three is the number he wore from that point forward, whenever he had the choice at least, from Pop Warner through his own playing days as a Sooner.

So, when he heard that the rule was changing back in April, Shepard wanted to make the switch right away.

“It's something I've always wanted to do, and it feels good just to be able to honor him in that way—wearing the number three and having the Shepard on the back of my jersey,” he said. “And I'm sure that he would be proud of me as far as I’ve come so far.”

Budda Baker, S, Cardinals: switched from 32 to 3

As soon as the number rule change was announced, Baker knew he wanted to switch as well.

The option to be one of the first safeties wearing single digits in the NFL was appealing in itself, but even more so was the chance to wear No. 3.

“I take numbers very serious,” Baker said in his first media availability of the offseason.

His love of the number three comes from growing up as a huge Allen Iverson fan. He was enamored by the way the Philadelphia 76ers guard changed basketball with his unique “swag” on and off the court, and he also admired Iverson’s effort, which he tries to emulate on the football field. It felt like a natural fit.

Unlike many players who changed their numbers this offseason, Baker never wore three during his college playing days at Washington, or even in high school. But now emulating the 11-time All-Star, the safety looks to continue his success in the league, aiming to turn his three Pro Bowl appearances in four years into a legacy for his franchise.

“Hopefully that number never gets worn again for the Cardinals,” Baker said.

Julio Jones, WR, Titans: switched from 11 to 2

For the first time since he entered the league in 2011, Jones will be playing for a new franchise and with a new number, trading in No. 11 on the Falcons for No. 2 on the Titans.

The seven-time Pro Bowl selection was at dinner with new teammates, wide receiver A.J. Brown and quarterback Ryan Tannehill, shortly after he joined Tennessee when Brown offered to give him the signature number. But Jones declined.

“I was like, ‘Bro, I don’t want it. That’s your number,’ ” Jones recalled in his introductory press conference.

Jones opted to go with No. 2 instead. The number didn’t hold a previous meaning for him, but it is symbolic.

“One plus one is two, then two times 11 is 22, so, it’s kind of like … you’re gonna have to deal with us,” Jones said.

Brown, the Titans’ top receiver, is No. 11, and star running back Derrick Henry has worn No. 22 throughout his time in the league. Though Tannehill couldn’t fit into the math equation, Jones said the message speaks to him and the entire 11-man offense as well.

“It’s just something just to keep the guys going and just have fun with it,” Jones said. “Because at the end of the day it’s our job, but we want to have fun with it.”

Patrick Queen, LB, Ravens: switched from 48 to 6

Queen had his eye on No. 8, which he wore at LSU en route to the 2020 national championship, once the rule change was announced. But, of course, that number was occupied by none other than his quarterback, ’19 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.

Queen tried to negotiate his way toward a bargain with Jackson on Twitter, to no avail, later tweeting it was a joke. But Queen still wanted to take advantage of the new rule entering his second year in the league.

“It was just the right thing to do,” Queen said during his first media availability of the offseason. “Single-digit swag, just the swagger that comes with it, just the feel that comes with it.”

When you see Queen making plays for the Ravens this season, building off a Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign last year, he’ll be wearing No. 6 as a nod to his hometown of Ventress, La.

“Back home, the place that we from, we call it ‘Six,’ ” Queen said. “Just try to put the city on me, try to show ’em where I’m from.”

More NFL Coverage:

Tom Brady's Forgotten Rookie Year
• Predicting Every Game of the 2021 Season
How Derrick Henry Handles a Throwback Workload
An Early Look at the 2022 NFL Quarterback Carousel

lundi 30 août 2021

New on SI: Report: NFL Adds Weekly Testing for Vaccinated Players to COVID-19 Protocols

Fully vaccinated players will now undergo weekly COVID-19 testing during the 2021 season, per the NFL's latest protocols.

Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports

The NFL and NFLPA have agreed to updated COVID-19 protocols for the 2021 season, according to the NFL Network's

Tom Pelissero.

The updated protocols include weekly testing for fully vaccinated players and staff, per Pelissero. Vaccinated players can reportedly opt in to taking a voluntary second test each week, while unvaccinated players will reportedly be required to undergo a COVID-19 test every day at the club facility. 

Unvaccinated players will not be required to wear masks at outdoor practices or walkthroughs, though masks will still be required indoors. All team medical staff, strength and conditioning coaches and equipment staff will be required to wear masks.

The NFL did not make any update to its COVID-19 close-contact protocols, per Pelissero. Fully vaccinated individuals will not be designated high-risk close contacts, and only unvaccinated players are at risk of missing games without a positive test.

Numerous notable players have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list in recent days, including Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Colts quarterback Carson Wentz. 

More NFL Coverage:

Tom Brady's Forgotten Rookie Year
Predicting Every Game of the 2021 Season
How Derrick Henry Handles a Throwback Workload
An Early Look at the 2022 NFL Quarterback Carousel

New on SI: MAQB: Kyle Shanahan Has Experience Toggling Between Two Offenses

If the 49ers are really going to deploy both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, their coach can draw on one particular experience in Washington.

No games this week! But there will be a lot of activity, so let’s get into all that …

Stan Szeto/USA TODAY Sports (Shanahan); Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports (Wentz); Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports (Fields)

• I understand the skepticism that the Niners will be able to make a

Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance shuttle work. But as a counter, I’ve got a story to tell—one that I think will bring some context to Kyle Shanahan’s staff’s ability to pull it off. And so I’ll take you back to 2012 and Washington, where Shanahan as offensive coordinator, his dad was head coach and Niners offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel was a quality control coach. After drafting Robert Griffin III with the second pick that April, Kyle Shanahan built an adapted version of the Baylor Air Raid offense that Griffin ran in college to shorten the learning curve. At the same time, he was developing Kirk Cousins to play within the tried-and-true version of the Shanahan scheme. And one reason there was so much tension at the end of that season, both before and after Griffin tore his ACL in the playoffs, was what happened in December of that year. Griffin had designs on playing quarterback in a more conventional, dropback sort of way, but wasn’t ready to do that at the NFL level. Then, he got nicked up and missed the game on Dec. 16 as a result. So the Shanahans toggled back to playing the scheme that Mike had run for two decades for Cousins—and that incensed Griffin’s camp, who thought that was how Griffin should be deployed. Cousins wound up throwing for 329 yards, two TDs, a pick and 104.4 passer rating that day, in a 38–21 win in Cleveland. Things weren’t the same after that between the team and Griffin, but that’s not the point of telling the story. The point is that I believe if there’s a coach who’s capable of flipping back and forth in identity on offense, it’s Shanahan, and being able to flip from an Air Raid scheme to a West Coast scheme and back again in a span of three Sundays is proof. Now, do I think a Garoppolo/Lance shuttle will work? I don’t know—nor do I know whether Shanahan’s really going to roll that out against Detroit in Week 1. But what I do know is that the Niners have been mulling this for a while, and the idea it could work for them, and be a huge headache for everyone else, really isn’t bonkers.

• The widely-held assumption that Carson Wentz hasn’t been vaccinated was confirmed on Monday, as he landed on the COVID-19 reserve list as a close contact (vaccinated players don’t get shelved as a result of being close contacts). He’ll be eligible to return to the team on Thursday, and that timing actually works out for the Colts in that it should give Wentz time to get rehab work in and get back on track to try and play in the opener on Sept. 13. But it certainly should be taken as a warning sign on what having your quarterback unvaccinated might mean for teams. Fast-forward a week, and Wentz would be returning to the team on the back end of its preparation for the opener against Seattle. Fast-forward another week, and the Colts would be losing Wentz with almost no notice for that opener.

• The Browns’ presence as a potential seller ahead of the 53-man cutdown used to be a sign that another rebuilding year was in the offing. Now? It’s a sign that the roster is in good enough shape where the team can afford to flip a good player or two—and might actually get something back for guys on the back end of the depth chart. We mentioned Mack Wilson this morning. Throw safety Sheldrick Redwine and WR KhaDarel Hodge in as two other names that came up in trade discussions with other teams (Redwine was cut late Monday).

• The Giants’ acquisition of center Billy Price is a sign that, even after investing a lot in the line over the last four offseasons, they still haven’t fixed what’s been a trouble spot for quite some time. New York was kicking tires on interior linemen the last few days and wound up dealing off B.J. Hill to land Price. And the Giants might not be done—bubble guys Dante Pettis, David Sills and Devante Downs have been raised in trade talks.

• Jacksonville’s another team that’s gotten more aggressive in trying to find interior offensive line help the last couple of days. I think that really reflects how seriously Urban Meyer is taking creating the right environment around Trevor Lawrence, and getting better up front is just one part of it. Another is the importance of blocking tight end Chris Manhertz in the offense—the coaches limited him to a total of 30 snaps over three preseason games to keep him fresh for the season. Another yet, I believe, will be a good amount of work for second-year back James Robinson, with the idea being, the more pressure the team can take off Lawrence, the better. Of course, that’ll also mean being more competitive, and not falling behind in games, with a team that went 1–15 last year, which is harder to plan out. But I do think Meyer and his staff are taking the right approach with their prized rookie, particularly after he got knocked around a little in the preseason opener.

• Speaking of rookie quarterbacks, Matt Nagy’s assigning Justin Fields to the scout team is yet another way he’s mirroring the experience he had as Chiefs offensive coordinator in 2017. That year, once the team broke camp, Andy Reid had Patrick Mahomes take on similar responsibilities. And in doing so, they saw a couple of interesting things about a guy who’d win league MVP a year later. One, he consistently kept teammates after to throw, so he could get reps running the Chiefs’ offense. And two, he never asked guys like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins or Travis Kelce to do it—not because he didn’t want to throw to those guys, but because, in his view, those were Alex Smith’s receivers, and he didn’t want to create any sort of issue within the team. The Chiefs staff was pretty impressed with all this, of course, in how Mahomes was getting the work he needed on his own, and also that he understood team dynamics that thoroughly as a rookie. It’s fair to say that, as long as he’s the backup, Fields would be wise to follow that blueprint.

• Gotta reiterate this: The best throw from a rookie quarterback this weekend is right here …

This shows, as we mentioned this morning, anticipation from Mac Jones. But it also shows, as some quarterback coaches say, an ability by Jones to communicate with his receivers through the ball—a longer way of saying he’s throwing guys open. On this snap, Jones is leading Devin Asiasi into a dead spot in the coverage, and getting him away from two defenders at once. And he’s doing it with the rush bearing down on him. Now, Jones hasn’t been perfect this preseason. I still think watching him, you see it takes a lot more effort for him to get the ball to certain parts of the field than it does other quarterbacks. But as far as presence, intelligence and feel, it’s all showing up like it did at Bama. Bottom line, he’s put a lot of good stuff on tape and given his coaches plenty to think about.

• I’m not going to sit here and play Michael Fabiano and try to give you fantasy advice. But … if you haven’t had your draft, I think it’d be wise to take a flier on Gus Edwards, and earlier than the other people in your league will. IT sucked seeing J.K. Dobbins go down—I expected he and Indy’s Jonathan Taylor to break out and challenge for the rushing title this season—but the reality is that’s not going to change who the Ravens are offensively. And while Edwards has been lodged behind Mark Ingram the last few years, and was going to lodged behind Dobbins, there’s a good faction of that coaching staff that believes Edwards could explode with more opportunity. And given how thin the Ravens are at tailback after losing Dobbins, Edwards (and his career 5.2-yards per carry average) should get a lot of opportunity.

• My feeling is the Saints are being very careful with how much they talk, and what they say, about their temporary exit from New Orleans. And I think that’s the right way to approach it, given not everyone was lucky enough to have the resources to get out of town like the team did. The question now becomes where the team will go after spending this week in Dallas, practicing at AT&T Stadium. The Saints have, over the years, gotten out of town for camp, or practice weeks, having taken their operation in full to San Antonio, Indianapolis, Southern California and West Virginia, in addition to now Dallas at different junctures. So that experience should help. Then, there’s the matter of the opener against the Packers. If New Orleans can’t host it, AT&T Stadium would make sense, given proximity and the fact that it’s open for Week 1. And if the Saints, and the league, decide to move the opener, that would give New Orleans until Oct. 3 to prepare for the team’s next home game, with road trips scheduled for Weeks 2 and 3.

• I feel like we went over this in the MMQB column, but it’s worth repeating: I do think the Texans would be O.K. with holding on to Deshaun Watson past the 53-man cutdown Tuesday. That means the real reason it’d serve as a cutdown is that it might prompt teams to call Houston over the next 24 hours. But I don’t know that there’s a good reason for the Texans to get aggressive here.

More NFL Coverage:

Predicting Every Game of the 2021 Season
How Derrick Henry Handles a Throwback Workload
An Early Look at the 2022 NFL Quarterback Carousel

New on SI: Fantasy Football: Preseason Hot Takes & Reactions to Everything You Need to Know

We watched the preseason so you didn't have to and here's everything you need to know ahead of the 2021 NFL season.

The 2021 NFL preseason is in the books, leaving teams with a one-week bye of sorts to prepare for the start of the regular campaign. With fantasy football drafts ramping up all over the globe, let’s take a look back at the news and notes of the last several weeks and their effect on how you rank your players and draft your squads moving forward.

Quarterbacks

- Dak Prescott (shoulder) missed the entire preseason, but Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said his quarterback is “good to go” for Week 1. He should be drafted as a top-5 QB.

Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports

- To the surprise of no one, Trevor Lawrence has won the starting job in Jacksonville. He’s a high to mid-tier No. 2 fantasy quarterback. The Jaguars then traded Gardner Minshew to the Philadelphia Eagles. C.J. Beathard looks like Lawrence’s new backup.

- Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance rotated with the first-team offense in the 49ers' last preseason game. The veteran is expected to open the season as the starter, but that hasn't stopped fantasy fans from drafting Lance in the middle to late rounds. He's seen as a potential league-winner once he takes the job, while Garoppolo seems destined for your league's waiver wire.

- Andy Dalton remains the QB1 in Chicago, but he isn't likely to keep that job long-term. Rookie Justin Fields showed some real flashes throughout the preseason, including a finale that saw him go 7-for-10 for 54 yards and a touchdown. Fields is being picked in the same area as Lance, but he could be the first of the duo to start games in 2021.

- Carson Wentz (foot) is expected to be a full participant in practice this week and is now looking more likely to start in Week 1 when the Colts host the Seattle Seahawks. He should be selected in the late rounds as a No. 2 fantasy quarterback in most drafts.

- Jameis Winston beat out Taysom Hill and will open the regular season as the starting quarterback in New Orleans. He looked great in the preseason, including a 123-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Jaguars in Week 2. Winston is now a low-QB2.

Paul Rutherford/USA TODAY Sports

- As expected, Ryan Fitzpatrick will be named the top quarterback in Washington. The veteran will be worth a late-round selection as a No. 2 fantasy option for 2021.

- Deshaun Watson's status for the start of the regular season remains up in the air. At this point, Tyrod Taylor is projected to be the Texans' starting quarterback. That could leave Watson to be a healthy scratch while he's on the roster. Reports suggest that the Miami Dolphins have emerged as the frontrunner to acquire Watson, so stay tuned.

- Teddy Bridgewater beat out Drew Lock and will open the regular season as the No. 1 quarterback in Denver. The veteran looked great in the preseason and should be seen as a borderline No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy quarterback in drafts. He was the QB18 last year.

- The Patriots have yet to announce a starting quarterback for Week 1. Cam Newton was the starter in the team’s final preseason game, but Mac Jones impressed once again with 156 yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants. From a fantasy standpoint, Jones has the most upside, but neither will be drafted as more than a QB2.

Running Backs

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

- Saquon Barkley (knee) missed the entire preseason and remains a question mark as the Giants get closer to the start of the regular campaign. His draft stock has fallen as a result, as the superstar is now being selected in the late first round or even the second round in some leagues. He could be a bargain there, but Barkley will come with risk.

- The Jaguars have lost rookie Travis Etienne for the entire season due to an injured foot. That leaves James Robinson, last season’s RB7 in fantasy leagues, as the top option. He’s now being selected as high as the second round in drafts. Carlos Hyde will also be in the team’s backfield mix and is a nice handcuff for Robinson managers. Some see this backfield inching closer to an even split.

- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) missed the Chiefs' preseason finale, but coach Andy Reid doesn't believe the ailment is serious. He's still coming off the board in Round 2 in most fantasy drafts, but grabbing Darrel Williams or Jerick McKinnon late makes sense.

- D'Andre Swift (groin) missed the preseason and much of camp, and his status for the start of the regular season remains a question mark. While Swift is out, Jamaal Williams would be the starter, making him a solid choice in the middle rounds. As for Swift, he's a risk-reward No. 2 fantasy running back somewhere in the third or fourth round.

- The Ravens have lost J.K. Dobbins (knee) for the season, which moves Gus Edwards into a starting role. He’s now a low-end No. 2 fantasy running back and worth a fourth or fifth-round selection in drafts. At this point, Edwards is followed by both Ty’Son Williams and Justice Hill on the depth chart. Williams is now worth a late flier.

- Myles Gaskin looked good in the Dolphins' second preseason game and appears to be the favorite for the top spot on the depth chart heading into Week 1. However, a committee that also includes Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed is possible, if not likely. Draft Gaskin as a low-end No. 2 fantasy runner or a high-end flex starter at this point.

- Darrell Henderson's stock took a hit when the Rams acquired Sony Michel from the Patriots. There have been questions about whether Henderson can handle a featured role, and the acquisition of Michel answers how the team feels. I've been told that the Rams will start Henderson in Week 1, but he could be better off playing on third downs and pass plays while Michel is the early-down grinder. Henderson should be seen as a No. 3 fantasy running back, but Michel could turn into a better draft bargain.

- With Michel no longer on the roster, Damien Harris’ stock has risen to that of a high-end flex starter in New England. While he’ll do little in the passing game with James White in the mix, Harris should see most of the early-down and goal-line work. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, who scored five times in the preseason, is also in the mix.

- Mark Ingram was the Texans starting running back for some of the preseason, but the team used Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson in what looks like a confusing committee. None of the trio are worth more than an RB4/RB5 spot on fantasy rosters this season.

- The Titans placed Brian Hill on injured reserve, leaving Darryton Evans as the team’s No. 2 running back. He’ll be worth a late-round pick as a handcuff for Derrick Henry.

Wide Receivers

- Julio Jones (leg) didn’t play in the preseason but has taken part in recent walkthroughs and individual drills. He appears to be on track to play in Week 1, but the veteran has seen his stock drop in drafts due in part to his lack of durability in recent seasons. You’ll be able to get him as a high-end No. 3 fantasy wide receiver in some smaller leagues.

Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports

- Bengals rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase had a poor preseason, notably struggling with drops. He’s now being picked as the second Cincinnati wideout in fantasy drafts behind Tee Higgins and ahead of Tyler Boyd. He didn’t play football last year due to COVID-19, so Chase should regain his confidence and connection with Joe Burrow this season.

- Courtland Sutton (knee) made his first preseason appearance this weekend, catching two passes for 27 yards with a touchdown. It appears he’s set for the Broncos’ regular-season opener against the Giants, so draft him as a No. 3 or 4 fantasy wideout. His teammate, Jerry Jeudy, has emerged as the Broncos fantasy wideout of choice.

- Kenny Golladay (hamstring) missed the entire preseason and valuable practice time, and his draft stock has suffered as a result. He can now be had as a No. 4 wide receiver in some leagues. When you consider he also missed most of last season with a hip injury, Golladay will be a major risk-reward selection in fantasy drafts.

- The Saints will be without Michael Thomas (ankle) for the first several weeks to begin the regular season, making the former fantasy superstar worth no more than a mid to late-round draft and stash. Marquez Callaway has shined in his absence, and his stock in fantasy leagues has risen as a result. He's now picked in the top 100 in many drafts, although his stock could tumble once Thomas returns to the gridiron.

Tommy Gilligan - USA Today Sports

- Marquise Brown (hamstring) continues to miss practice time, and first-round rookie Rashod Bateman (core) seems like a longshot to be ready for the start of the regular season. This could lead veteran Sammy Watkins into a prominent role in the Ravens passing game, at least to open the new campaign. None of the Ravens wideouts should be seen as more than late-round selections in No. 4 or 5 fantasy wideouts, though.

- Will Fuller (foot) returned to Dolphins practice after missing the previous three weeks of work. It appears he’ll be ready to return in Week 2 (he will serve the final game of his suspension in Week 1), but Fuller’s fantasy stock has tumbled. He’s now a WR4.

- The Colts will be without T.Y. Hilton for the first several games of the regular season due to a disc issue in his neck. No one knows exactly how long he’ll be out, so Hilton should be off the redraft radar in most leagues. Michael Pittman Jr. will become the top option in the passing attack in his absence, while Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal both pick up snaps among wideouts. Neither is worth more than a late-round flier, though.

- The Packers acquired Randall Cobb from the Texans at the request of Aaron Rodgers. He’ll fit back into the top slot role, hurting the value of rookie Amari Rodgers. Cobb will be worth a late-round pick, mostly because of his quarterback. The Texans will now lean on Cobb, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins as their top three wideouts to start the season.

- The Lions have released veteran Breshad Perriman, leaving Tyrell Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Quintez Cephus as the team’s top wideouts. Williams and St. Brown are both worth late-round looks, while Cephus could be worth a flier in best-ball formats.

Tight Ends

- Noah Fant (leg) has missed some practice time but is expected to be ready for the start of the season. He remains a mid to low-tier No. 1 fantasy tight end in drafts.

- Breakout candidate Irv Smith Jr. is expected to require surgery to repair a meniscus injury, meaning he'll miss the start of the regular season. Depending on the severity of the damage, Smith could miss an extended period. He's worth a late-round flier as a stash (at best) until we get a clearer timeline, but at this point, it might be better to avoid him. Tyler Conklin could jump on the fantasy radar to start the regular season.

- Evan Engram suffered a calf injury in the Giants preseason finale. He has about two weeks to recover from the ailment and be available for the team’s regular-season opener against the Broncos. He’ll be worth a late-round pick as a No. 2 tight end.

- Hunter Henry (shoulder) missed the entire preseason and remains a question mark to open the regular season. He’s fallen behind Jonnu Smith in terms of fantasy appeal, but Henry is still worth a late-round flier as a No. 2 fantasy option in most 2021 drafts.

- One-time fantasy sleeper Adam Trautman suffered an ankle injury in the preseason and could be out several weeks. Whether or not he’s ready for Week 1 remains to be seen, but the ailment plus his lack of preseason targets has his stock tumbling.


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New on SI: Tom Brady’s Forgotten Rookie Year

From a heroic preseason moment to a shaved head to ‘Tecmo Bowl’-inspired tantrums, remembering a fourth-string quarterback in Foxboro.

As the fourth-string quarterback took the field, a fresh rookie buzz cut beneath his silver helmet, his teammates on the visiting sidelines prayed that he would put an end to their misery. The Silverdome had become a stadium-sized sauna on an August night in Pontiac, Mich., later described by one sweat-soaked reporter as “hot, humid, and air-conditioning-less.” The Patriots and Lions were tied at 10, and with less than a minute on the game clock every NFL veteran’s nightmare loomed: preseason overtime.

For Tom Brady, it was a dream chance to impress. The ball was spotted at the New England 31 after a Lions punt. Two modest gains brought the Pats closer to but not across midfield, each tick of the clock making a delayed flight home more likely. Just when the team’s fate seemed certain, though, Brady reared back and hit receiver Sean Morey between the safeties, a 47-yard connection. Adam Vinatieri came on to make a chip shot field goal on the next play, hitting the netting with two seconds left, guaranteeing an escape from the Detroit suburbs.

Celebratory high-fives and back slaps awaited as Brady left the field, according to The Boston Globe. So did a gesture of gratitude from one teammate hip to the latest in portable technology.

“Those guys did not want to keep playing,"

Brady told the Globe. “One of the guys let me use his DVD player because he said, ‘At least you didn't keep me around for another half-hour.’ So that was nice.”

Bill Greene/The Boston Globe/Getty Images

When it comes to all that Brady has done in the two-plus decades since that night—his first extended NFL action after previously making a small cameo in the Patriots’ preseason opener against his childhood-favorite Niners—hindsight is 20/20. (Devotees of his pricey performance supplements and “recovery pajamas” might prefer TB12/TB12.) Now 44, he is the NFL’s only quadragenarian heading into the 2021 season, the latest in a career so absurdly long that all but 16 of his current teammates on the Buccaneers’ 80-man roster are as close in age, or closer, to Brady’s 14-year-old son Jack (who has been tagging along with Pops to practice as a guest ball boy at Tampa Bay’s training camp this summer) than they are to their quarterback.

Ten Super Bowl appearances and seven increasingly bejeweled rings later, the usual Brady narrative picks up in 2001 when he takes over for Drew Bledsoe and tucks the Lombardi Trophy, among other things, under his arm; the 2000 season is a forgotten footnote in his arc. And for good reason: Aside from his game-winning drive in Detroit, Brady did next to nothing else memorable on the field as a rookie, squeaking onto the active roster when coach Bill Belichick made the unusual decision to keep four quarterbacks. While Brady finished the season as Drew Bledsoe’s backup, he completed a single 6-yard pass in his lone regular-season appearance—Week 13 mop-up duty during a lopsided loss in, coincidentally, the Silverdome.

Even his crowning moment, the dart to Morey, is mostly lost to history; requests for surviving footage to the Lions, the Patriots and NFL Films turned up empty, while Brady “really didn’t have much recollection” of the 13–10 victory, according to a Bucs spokesperson.

But bits of that memory—of Brady’s first NFL heroics—linger for some former teammates. Among them is Eric Bjornson, a tight end who was watching from the sidelines when Brady hit Morey up the seam. “It just seemed like such a mature throw for a kid in his first year,” Bjornson says. “Late-game like that, guys usually don’t take a ton of risk … He fired that thing right down the throat of the defense. Five-step drop, no shuffle, no nothing, just … BANG! Like you’ve seen him do a thousand times, but this was the first sign of how calm, cool and confident he was that we were going to win.”

As it was happening, Bjornson had no reason to believe Brady’s throw would signal anything of note, save for a chance for the rookie who played college ball in nearby Ann Arbor—a sixth-rounder and the seventh draft pick of the Belichick era then buried on the depth chart behind Bledsoe, Michael Bishop and John Friesz—to bank some quality NFL game film. “I don’t remember much, but I remember being happy that this would open up a door for him to land somewhere else,” Bjornson says. “I didn’t think in 8 million years that he’d make the team.”

Two-plus decades later, it is perhaps a measure of Brady’s status that Bjornson and other members of the 2000 Patriots—all of them having long since retired from football and moved on to other lines of employment (Bjornson works in employee benefits consulting)—can recall anything at all about his rookie season. But they do. Like how he handled the task of performing skits during training camp. “One night, Tom was just up there doing stand-up, telling jokes,” Bjornson says. “It was pretty damn funny.” And how he looked with that shaved head. “Completely ridiculous,” Chris Eitzmann, also a tight end on that 2000 team, says.

And his relative lack of fame, even among locals. “He’d be trying to talk to girls at the bars and they wouldn’t give him the time of day, and we’d all be laughing about it,” says defensive lineman David Nugent, who roomed with Brady for three years starting that preseason. “Obviously, that changed.”

Above all else, they remember the obsessive work ethic Brady brought every day, beginning when the rookie would pull his yellow Jeep Wrangler—“ugly and bright,” as Eitzmann describes the gift Brady received from an area car dealership upon making the team—into the parking lot before sunrise.

It was the same approach Brady summarized to the Globe that preseason, the week after the Detroit game: “I am going out there every day, trying to get better and see how good I can possibly be because there are a lot of great quarterbacks here,” he said. “It is so competitive that you just have to go out and worry about yourself, worry about completing balls when you are in, and hopefully get better each day.

“Then, hopefully, the coach sees something he can work with and then you are able to get your shot.”

Lonie Paxton was an undrafted long snapper from Sacramento State in 2000, thrilled to simply score an invitation to an NFL rookie camp, when he first met Brady on their shared connecting flight to New England. “I got a T-shirt and a plane ticket, so I was going to prove myself,” Paxton says. “I was not really expecting too much.” He quickly learned that his new traveling companion, the 199th pick that year, had similar plans. “He’s always had that chip on his shoulder,” Paxton says of Brady.

Eitzmann realized this soon after workouts started at Rhode Island’s Bryant University, by which point he and Brady had begun a tradition of staying late after practice to throw and run routes. “We’d go until I was completely gassed and couldn’t anymore,” Eitzmann says. One day, “We were walking off, and he was like, ‘Know what Eitz, I’m gonna beat out Bledsoe.’ Which at the time just sounded like the most preposterous thing ever. Bledsoe was a god in New England, and here’s this skinny kid.”

Brady, in 2000, warming up for that preseason game in the Silverdome.

Carlos Osorio/AP

Absent any meaningful reps to prove himself, Brady did whatever he could to get ahead. “He’d always be out there throwing, running ... everything,” receiver Shockmain Davis says. Bjornson remembers his preseason roommate, Friesz, coming home to gush about the meticulously detailed “works of art” that Brady would draw in the quarterback room when quizzed by a coach. Others recall him staying up to study the playbook in his temporary lodging at the End Zone Motel in Foxboro, Mass., tuning out the live concerts the divey establishment hosted on weekends. “His drive to get better was insane,” Eitzmann says. “He’s probably the most competitive person I’ve ever met.”

The football field wasn’t Brady’s only arena here. “Nintendo, Ping-Pong, pool, you beat him and he was pissed,” Eitzmann says. Later that year, when Brady was living with Eitzmann and Nugent in a condo he bought from cornerback Ty Law, the trio regularly staged double-elimination tournaments in Tecmo Super Bowl. A Bay Area native, Brady would play as the Niners, while Eitzmann often elected for the Raiders, featuring an unbeatable Bo Jackson. “He’d throw the controller against the wall,” Eitzmann says. “He wouldn’t talk to me for half a day.”

Despite his best efforts Brady remained a glorified practice squad player most of that season, taking snaps sparingly and staying home for away games. But it was clear that he had caught the attention of veteran peers, if only judging by Bledsoe's pranks targeting the yellow Jeep. “At one point he filled it with packing peanuts; at one point there was flour in the vents,” Eitzmann says. All the while, Brady’s intensity never waned. “Every night, he would go down to our basement and watch film, preparing like he was the starting quarterback,” Nugent says. “Then I wouldn’t see him in the morning, because he’d get up so early and go to the stadium and watch film before anyone else got there.”

One night, after returning from a road trip, Nugent checked in to see how Brady, no stranger to quarterback competition due to his time at Michigan, was handling the lack of action. “I asked him, ‘You hanging in there?’ ” Nugent recalls. “He was so competitive, but so far down the depth chart. He said, ‘You know, I can’t control how much practice time I get, or how the guys in front of me play. All I can control is how much I study, what I do with the one or two reps they give me. And when my time comes, I’ll be ready.”

Pats fans everywhere can recite what happened next by rote: Bledsoe went down in Week 2 of the 2001 season, sustaining severe internal injuries on a hit that hastened his exit from New England; Brady stepped up and soon became the youngest Super Bowl–winning quarterback ever, assuming the unfamiliar role of local deity, much to his—and everyone else’s—surprise “I’ve got all sorts of stories about him getting standing ovations at Outback Steakhouse, getting recognized as we were heading into the playoffs,” Nugent says. “At the time it was brand-new to him. We’d get back in the car and he’d be freaking out.”

More SI Daily Covers:

In the Shadow of Tom Brady: What It Means to Be Pick 199
Dak Prescott’s Heal Turn
How the Bucs Are Leading a Linebacker Revival
Magnificent Seventh: How Brady’s Bucs Became Super Bowl Champions