Let me first allow SI Fantasy’s high-stakes football guru Shawn Childs to take the lead here in describing Swift’s talent and situation. This is from his recently published Lions outlook (and yes, he writes this much for almost every decent player in the game):
“As the lead rusher for Georgia over the last two seasons, Swift ran for 2,267 yards on 359 carries with 17 rushing touchdowns. He also picked up 56 catches for 513 yards and four more TDs. His season ended with only three carries for 15 yards over his final two contests.
Even with a productive resume in 2018, he failed to rush for over 75 yards in ten of his 14 games while working almost in a 50/50 split role with Elijah Holyfield. Swift flashed his explosiveness over a two-game stretch in early November (33/342/3 plus seven catches for 61 yards). He only had one game with over 20 touches.
Last year Swift played well in Week 1 (16/147) while earning a full load midseason over a five-game stretch (647 combined yards, five TDs, and 11 catches on 114 touches). His best success came against Kentucky (21/179/2).
He missed time with a left shoulder issue last year while battling a groin issue in 2018.
Swift may have landed on the best franchise for him to make an impact in his rookie season. In my opening projections, I gave him the lead running back job, which came to 1,320 combined yards with nine TDs and 48 catches.”
If Swift put up those numbers, he’d have scored 234 fantasy points. He’d be the RB12 in 2019 & RB 11 in 2018. A low-end RB1 season would be pretty special although breakout rookie seasons aren’t uncommon. In 2018, Saquon Barkley led all RBs in PPR leagues. In 2017, Christian McCaffrey, Kareem Hunt & Alvin Kamara all finished in the top 10. In 2016, Ezekiel Elliott had his breakout (and best to date) season.
Not surprisingly, the ADP price tags on those players were very high. You have to pay up to get your guy. If anything, we are seeing a significant discount on Swift because he wasn’t drafted as early as others, along with the poor reputation of Lions RBs for the better part of a couple of decades.
The Lions have finished the year with more rushing yards than their opponents only twice (2013 and 2014).
The Lions have finished dead last in the NFL in rushing yards four separate times (2003, 2006, 2015, 2017).
Detroit’s run game hasn’t ranked in the top half of the league at the end of the season a single time.
Then we get to the names. So much promise! Ameer Abdullah, Jahvid Best, Reggie Bush, Joique Bell, Kevin Smith, and Kevin Jones (shoutout to all my Virginia Tech alumni out there).
What there is to like here is a very slept-on Lions offense. Matthew Stafford was actually killing it last year before he got hurt. In just eight games, he had 2,499 passing yards and 19 TDs. Extrapolate those numbers out (4,998 yards and 38 TDs) and it would have been his second-best yardage and TD season (in 2011, he passed for 5,038 yards and 41 TDs). Stafford hadn’t missed a game prior to 2019 since 2010. That was the year he injured his shoulder in the opening game and ended up requiring surgery to repair the injury a couple of weeks later.
So we have that big boost to look forward to along with the continued development of TE T.J. Hockenson. He’s an excellent run blocker and one of my favorite sleepers at my favorite position to aim for sleepers.
Plus, we have WR Kenny Golladay, who has to be one of the most under-appreciated stud receivers in the game. This despite having a monster 2019 season with Stafford out for half the year.
I mean really folks, the guy had 65-1,190-11 with David Blough and Jeff Driskel as his QBs for half the season. How is that even possible?
You may be surprised to get this far into the article and not hear the name Kerryon Johnson yet. AllLions reporter Vito Chirco recently discussed who would see more snaps in 2020, Johnson or Swift. That’s of course, the elephant in the room.
In fantasy football, we too often focus on the incumbents. We think of players as what we hoped them to be and not what they are. Johnson continues to be a very promising player. However, he’s been injured, off-and-on, for much of his short career. We should expect him to be a significant part of a two-headed committee to start the season. Lions head coach Matt Patricia may have a defensive background, but the Lions used two of their picks in the first five rounds on RBs (Swift in Round 2 & Jason Huntley in Round 5.)
Swift is not a banger and he has his own share of injury problems in college. He runs a bit upright for my tastes. What separates him from the pack and why I feel he will be special at the next level is his ability to change direction with losing almost no speed, along with his open-field vision and balance. Swift doesn’t break ankles; he just keeps it moving and finds space in between defenders. He has very little wear and tear because he was so frequently used in a RB committee in college. He has very good hands for a back and can contribute heavily to the passing game.
Because of the Lions woeful 2019 season and poor history at the position, there’s a built-in discount with Swift. A featured role may be off the table, but you’re able to draft Swift in Round 5 (or beyond) as a possible RB3/FLEX1, I’d love that.
With RBs going heavy in Round 1, you have to secure the position early, and hitting on a potential stud like Swift will give you a leg-up on your competitors. Look for his ADP to continue to rise as drafters get a better feel for the board.
Matt Patricia holding the head coaching job for the Lions long-term hinges on his success this year. Over his first two seasons with Detroit, he went 9-22-1, which came after Jim Caldwell went 36-28 over four years as the head coach.
Patricia worked in New England’s system since 2004, helping them win three Super Bowls. He held the defensive coordinator job for the Patriots from 2012 to 2017.
The Lions brought in Darrell Bevell to run the offense in 2019 after spending the last 12 seasons with the Vikings and the Seahawks as the offensive coordinator. He helped Seattle win one Super Bowl (2013). Bevell has 20 years of experience in the NFL.
Detroit finished 18th in points scored (341) and 17th in offensive yards.
Cory Undlin takes over the defense after coaching the defensive back for the Broncos and Eagles over the past seven seasons. He coached with New England in 2004 before moving onto the Browns and Jacksonville. Undlin has 16 years of experience in the NFL.
The Lions fell to 31st in yards allowed and 26th in points allowed (423). Only once since 1983 has Detroit ranked inside the top ten in points allowed (3rd in 2014 – 282).
Free Agency
After trading away CB Darius Slay in March to the Eagles, the Lions signed CB Desmond Trufant to replace him in the starting lineup. Last year Trufant missed seven games due to a toe issue and a season-ending broken arm in December. His coverage skills have faded over the past three seasons. Trufant played well over his first three years in the league after getting drafted in the first round in 2013.
Detroit brought in LB Jamie Collins and DT Danny Shelton after both players helped New England become the top defense in the NFL in 2019. Collins has a rebound in his career after underperforming in 2017 and 2018. Shelton worked as an early-down run stopper over the past three seasons.
The secondary players added to the defensive side of the ball were CB Jayron Kearse, DT Nick Williams, and LB Reggie Ragland.
Their defense lost DT Mike Davis, DT Damon Harrison, DT A’Shawn Robinson, S Tavon Wilson, DE Devon Kennard, CB Rashaan Melvin.
The Lions’ offensive line takes a hit with G Graham Glasgow finding a new home in Denver and T Rick Wagner signing with the Packers. Glasgow played well over his previous three years while Wagner failed to make an impact in run blocking in his career in Detroit.
They added QB Chase Daniel, G Halapoulivaati Vaitai, WR Geremy Davis, and WR Geronimo Allison to their offense.
Draft
With the third overall draft selection, the Lions invested in CB Jeff Okudah. There is no doubt Okudah will take over the top cornerback position on this defense. His game works well in press coverage, and it should improve when he gets stronger. His quickness gets him in position early vs. wide receivers while his speed (4.48 forty) looks faster in game action. Okudah needs to improve in his reads on routes and identifying his man earlier in zone coverage.
RB D’Andre Swift was the choice in the second round. Swift runs with vision and a feel for daylight. His top gear hurts him over the long field while needing to improve his value in short-yardage situations when faced with multiple big bodies. He earns his edge accelerating out of short chopping steps in tight quarters thanks to his ability to get to a full stride quickly. Swift projects well as a receiver, but he’ll have to prove his worth in pass projections.
In the third round, Detroit added LB Julian Okwara. Even with a foundation in strength, Okwara can lose value when facing powerful big bodies on the offensive line. His game is geared toward rushing the quarterback where his speed and quickness bring a disrupter feel. Okwara needs to improve vs. the run, and his vision isn’t ideal at this point in his career. Last year a broken leg hurt his production and development. To further impact rushing the quarterback, Okwara has to add more depth to his pass-rushing moves.
Detroit addressed their possible shortfall at guard by drafting Jonah Jackson and Logan Stenberg.
Jackson has experience at center and guard while expecting to be a better player early in his career in pass projection. He gains his edge by understanding his assignments and showing the ability to move quickly with his feet. He does have the strength to hold his own in run blocking, but his technique is trailing. For now, Jackson has a limited range while needing to improve his hands.
Stenberg is a second player with a chance to outperform his draft position in pass blocking. He works hard with some fight to his game. His vision and anticipation help in pass protection, but Stenberg needs to get stronger to handle power players up the middle. He does offset some of his shortfalls by trying to hold, which may be a problem at the next level.
With their two picks in the fifth round, the Lions decided on offensive depth – WR Quintez Cephus and RB Jason Huntley.
Cephus has a tight end feel in speed (4.7 forth) and strength (23 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine) while fitting more into a running back’s body. His hands grade well, but Cephus needs to clean up his press coverage release and develop his route running to earn more playing time at the next level. With the ball in his hands, he’ll gain extra yards.
Huntley gives the Lions another option in the passing game out of the backfield, plus he offers a change-of-pace value. His vision looks exceptional with a foundation of moves to create space in the open field. Huntley helps improve the Lions’ return game as well. Most of his runs tend to filter to the outside while having some concern with his ball security.
The defensive line was the focus with Detroit’s final two picks in the sixth and seventh rounds – DT John Penisini and Jashon Cornell.
Penisini projects as an early-down run-stopper who owns first-step quickness and great hands. His game is all about power and gaining an edge early off the snap. He will be challenged by more talented players in the NFL, which will require him to up his play to earn more snaps.
Cornell has a tweener skill set for the defensive line. He’s not big enough (6’3” and 285 lbs.) to anchor against the run, and his overall game isn’t high enough to make an impact rushing the quarterback on the outside. Cornell brings quickness and a hard-working skill set to the NFL. His athletic feel is the key to his growth going forward. Cornell needs to get stronger and prove he can handle more bulk.
Offensive Line
Detroit fell to 21st in rushing yards (1,649) while averaging 25.4 rushing attempts per game. They gained 4.1 yards per carry for the second straight season with seven TDs and seven runs over 20 yards.
The loss of Matthew Stafford for half of a season cost the Lions a couple of spots in the final rankings in passing yards (4,187 – 8th) with 28 TDs and 15 Ints. Detroit gained only 7.3 yards per pass attempt with only 13 catches over 40 yards. Their offensive line allowed 41 sacks and 84 QB hits.
LT Taylor Decker
Decker played well in pass blocking in his four seasons after getting drafted in the first round in 2016. Last year he regained his earlier form in the run game. Decker does allow pressure on the quarterback, but his game looks to be improving.
LG Joe Dahl
The Lions gave Dahl 13 starts last year after seeing minimal action over his first three years in the NFL. He came up short in run blocking while holding his own in pass protection. Dahl missed the final three games with a back injury.
C Frank Ragnow
Ragnow ended up starting 16 games at left guard in his rookie season after being drafted in the first round in 2018. Detroit shifted him to the center position last year, which led to an uptick in play across the board. His game is built on power and his initial quickness, but his overall speed isn’t an edge. Ragnow can handle bull rushers while showing limited range if asked to defend a more significant part of the field.
RG Johan Jackson
The Lions should start Jackson at right guard after drafting him in the third round this season. His best play early in his career should come in pass blocking.
RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai
Detroit signed Vaitai to a five-year $50 million contract in the offseason. Only once in his four-year career has he played a full season. In 2019 over 15 games, Vaitai made three starts while seeing action at every position on the line except center. His play showed growth in run blocking with some improvement in pass protection.
Offensive Line Outlook
This offensive line should rank above the league average with their upside tied to their guards' development. I expect better play in pass protection with hit or miss success on the ground.
Offensive Schedule
The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.
2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Detroit has close to a league average schedule for their rushing offense. They have two tough matchups (NO and TB) plus three mid-tier contests (IND and CHI X 2). Their best success should come against the Jaguars, Redskins, and Panthers.
Other than two games against the Bears, the Lions don’t face any teams that ranked highly versus the pass in 2019. Their best opportunity in the air should come vs. Arizona, Houston, and Tampa.
Offense
The lack of defense by the Lions in 2019 should have led to more passing plays, but the injury to Matthew Stafford led to teams controlling the clock. The Lions ran the ball 41.7 percent of the time last year.
Here’s a look at the early projections for Detroit, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:
Halfway through 2019, Stafford was on pace for 4,998 yards and 38 TDs, which would have been his second-best season (2011 – 5038/41). He set a career-high in yards per pass attempt (8.6) thanks to explosive plays (41 completions over 20 yards and eight over 40 yards).
After a stellar game (406/3) in Week 9, Stafford missed the rest of the season due to fractured bones in his back.
Kenny Golladay (65/1190/11) gives him a developing WR1 while also having viable receiving options at RB, WR2, WR3, and TE. D'Andre Swift should be the missing link at running back, which helps the Lions' offense in all areas.
Overlook player at times with an early draft price (ADP – 98) as the 13th QB off the board. An excellent QB2 with matchup value at the minimum. I set his bar at 4,179 combined yards with 27 TDs and 11 Ints.
The development of TE T.J. Hockenson and RB D’andre Swift set the tone for Stafford's success in 2020.
Other option: David Blough, Chase Daniel
Running Backs
Over the last three seasons, the Lions running backs only scored five passing touchdowns with regression in their yards per catch (6.7 in 2018 and 6.6 in 2019). Last year their RBs gained 1,902 combined yards with nine TDs and 76 catches.
As the lead rusher for Georgia over the last two seasons, Swift ran for 2,267 yards on 359 carries with 17 rushing touchdowns. He also picked up 56 catches for 513 yards and four more TDs. His season ended with only three carries for 15 yards over his final two contests.
Even with a productive resume in 2018, he failed to rush for over 75 yards in 10 of his 14 games while working almost in a 50/50 split role with Elijah Holyfield. Swift flashed his explosiveness over a two-game stretch in early November (33/342/3 plus seven catches for 61 yards). He only had one game with over 20 touches.
Last year Swift played well in Week 1 (16/147) while earning a full load midseason over a five-game stretch (647 combined yards, five TDs, and 11 catches on 114 touches). His best success came against Kentucky (21/179/2).
He missed time with a left shoulder issue last year while battling a groin issue in 2018.
Swift may have landed on the best franchise for him to make an impact in his rookie season. In my opening projections, I gave him the lead running back job, which came to 1,320 combined yards with nine TDs and 48 catches. He has an ADP of 45 in mid-June in the high-stakes market as the 23rd drafted.
In back-to-back seasons, Johnson missed a significant portion of the year with knee injuries.
His season started with three flat games (193 combined yards with two TDs and five catches) due to no running room (2.6 YPC). After a good game (157 combined yards with two catches) in Week 4, his production was minimal in his other four contests (180 combined yards with two TDs and three catches) while missing eight games with a right knee injury (left knee in 2018).
His play the previous year invites upside, but two knee issues should be enough of a sign to proceed with caution.
Johnson is the 35th off the board in the early draft seasons with an ADP of 94, which won’t be the case going forward with RB D’andre Swift added to the roster.
Decent talent, but he could be outside looking in when the lights go in September.
Jason Huntley
Over his first three seasons at New Mexico State, Huntley gained 1,216 combined yards with 14 TDs and 94 catches while receiving 312 combined touches. As their lead runner in 2019, he gained 1,282 combined yards with 11 TDs and 40 catches on 194 chances.
His explosiveness showed last year in his yards per rush (7.1), but Huntley struggled to find open field in the passing game (4.8 yards per catch – 10.4 in 2017 and 2018).
He also has five kickoff returns in his college career.
Other options: Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson, Wes Hills
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver opportunity has been consistent over the past three seasons. They averaged 207 catches for 2,838 yards and 18 TDs on 337 targets per game. In 2019, their wide receivers gained over 20 yards on 60 plays (6th in the NFL). All of this was done last year without their starting quarterback for a half of a season.
Coming into 2019, Golladay had the look of a breakout type wide receiver. He ended the year with a step back in catches (65) and targets (116), partly due to the loss of QB Matthew Stafford for eight games.
Surprisingly, Golladay finished with a spike in TDs (11) and career-highs in yards per catch (18.3) and catches over 20 (22) and 40 (6) yards.
Four of his five games (8/117/1, 5/121, 6/123/2, 4/132/1, and 4/158/1) with over 100 yards receiving came over his first eight games (healthy Stafford).
Even with his success, the Lions only gave him double-digit targets in two games. Golladay is on the verge of being a lockdown top-ten wide receiver. His initial projections came to 77 catches for 1,144 yards and 11 TDs. His early ADP is 28 as the eighth wide receiver drafted.
Marvin Jones
Jones was on pace to set career-highs in catches and targets if he didn’t miss the final three games with an ankle injury.
He dominated in three games (6/101/1, 10/93/4, and 8/126/1). His season ended with four straight games with fewer than 50 yards receiving.
Over the last two seasons, he missed ten games.
Hitting the back nine, but the Lions didn’t add any threats to steal his targets. In the WR3 mold, when healthy while earning WR4 interest in the early draft season with an ADP of 111. Not my kind of fight at this stage of his career. I have projected for 66 catches for 895 yards and six TDs.
Danny Amendola
The Lions gave Amendola the third-most targets (97) of his career while gaining the highest number of yards per catch (1.09) of his career.
Over his last three seasons, he averaged 61 catches for 637 yards and 1.3 TDs over 45 games while playing for three different teams.
His best play in 2019 came in four games (7/104/1, 8/105, 8/95, and 8/102). Amendola gained fewer than 40 yards in ten of his other 11 contests. He scored his only TD in Week 1.
Only a bye week cover while being a waiver wire tease if he plays well early in the year. Amendola starts 2020 at age 34.
Geronimo Allison
Last year fantasy owners thought Allison would blossom as the WR2 for the Packers. Even with a full season of games for the first time in his career, he caught 34 passes for 287 yards and two TDs on 55 targets while gaining only 8.4 yards per catch.
Only once last year (3/52/1) did Allison gain over 50 yards receiving. Over four seasons in the NFL, he has 89 catches for 1,045 yards and seven TDs on 146 targets,
Capable of a big game as back-end wide receiver in the Lions rotation, but he may need an injury to get enough snaps to be playable at some point this year.
Quintez Cephus
Cephus played well in 2019 (59/901/7), with his best success in three games (6/130/2, 5/114, and 7/122).
He missed 2018 with an off the field issue that Cephus later beat in a court case.
Over his career at Wisconsin, he averaged 16.1 yards per catch with 13 TDs over his final 24 games.
Other options: Chris Lacy, Jamal Agnew, Geremy Davis, Travis Fulgham, Victor Bolden
Tight Ends
The catch rate (58.4) for the Lions’ tight ends came in a much weaker area than expected last year. After a dip in TE chances and production in 2018 (42/458/4), Detroit almost matched their 2017 targets (114) last year (113). Matthew Stafford will throw to his tight ends if he has a viable option, which falls on the development of T.J. Hockenson.
In his first NFL start, Hockenson posted an impact game (6/131/1), but his success was more of a result of a bad TE defense by the Cardinals.
Over his next 11 games, he caught only 26 passes for 236 yards and one TD on 50 targets. His catch rate (52.0) suggests Hockenson needs more time to develop.
His season ended after Week 13 due to right ankle injury.
In his final season at Iowa in a split role with Noah Fant, he flashed big-play (15.5 YPC) and scoring ability (six TDs on 49 catches).
For now, a TE2 with upside, but he may be tough to time when setting your lineups in 2020. Hockenson has an ADP of 135 in mid-June as the 15th tight end drafted. His initial projections came to 57 catches for 649 yards and five TDs.
Other options: Jesse James, Isaac Nauta, Matt Sokol, Hunter Bryant
Kicker
Matt Prater
Over the last five years, Prater had been one of the better kickers from 50 yards or longer (29-for-37 – 78.3 percent). His success pushed him to 24th in field goal percentage (83.8) all-time, with most of his failure coming from 40-for-49 yards (74/105).
He’s had over 30 field goal chances in four straight years while averaging 35 extra-point chances per season.
More of a matchup option while needing Detroit to show growth offensively to be trusted as week-to-week play in the fantasy market.
Defense Schedule
Detroit has four games (IND, TEN, and MIN X 2) vs. teams that are expected to run the ball well this year. Their best edge should come against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Chicago (2).
The Lions will be challenged in three games (ATL, TB, and NO) via the pass. They have seven contests (ARI, IND, WAS, MIN X 2, and CHI X 2). The Cardinals and Colts should be improved passing the ball in 2020.
Defense
The Lions dropped to 21st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (1,855) with 13 TDs and seven runs over 20 yards. Runners gained only 4.1 yards per rush while averaging 28.4 rushers per game.
Detroit fell to last in the NFL in passing yards allowed (4,551) with 33 TDs and seven Ints. Their defense finished with only 28 sacks while allowing 72 catches over 20 yards.
DE Romeo Okwara
After setting career highs in tackles (39) and sacks (7.5) in 2018, Okwara struggled to get to the quarterback (1.5) last year with regression vs. the run. His ceiling is low showcased by his one start in 2019.
Over his first two seasons, Hand missed 16 games. In his rookie season, he played well defending the run while flashing upside in the pass rush. Hand looks the part of a high-end run defender with questions with his motor and value as a pass rusher. He offers a foundation piece to a defensive line thanks to his strength and power.
DT Danny Shelton
In his second season with the Patriots, Shelton set a career-high in both tackles (61) and sacks (3). He grades as a plus in run support with some improvement rushing the quarterback over the past two seasons. Shelton is a former first-round draft pick (2015).
DE Trey Flowers
Flowers rewarded with a productive season after signing a big contract in 2019. Over his last three seasons, he averaged 57 tackles and seven sacks while grading well against the run.
LB Jamie Collins
In his second chance with the Patriots, Collins turned into a top playmaker. He finished with 81 tackles, seven sacks, three Ints, seven defended passes, one TD, and three forced fumbles. His run defense isn’t ideal while continuing to miss too many tackles.
LB Jarrad Davis
Last year Davis missed five games due to an ankle injury. He played great in his second year in 2018 after getting drafted in the first round in 2017. Davis finished with 100 tackles, six sacks, and five defended passes. Even with his success, Davis did have risk vs. the run, which wasn’t helped by a high number of missed tackles.
LB Reggie Ragland
In 2018, Ragland picked up 86 tackles with minimal value in the pass rush (0.5 sacks). The Chiefs only gave him seven starts last year. He held his own vs. the run while chipping in with some pressure on the quarterback.
CB Desmond Trufant
Trufant set a career-high in interceptions (4) in 2019 while only playing in nine games. He’ll help in run support, but his cover skills aren’t where they were when coming into the league.
CB Jeff Okudah
The Lions believe Okudah has the talent to fill the vacated shoe of Darius Slay in his rookie season. He should start in his first NFL game while offering upside in coverage.
S Duron Harmon
The Lions are expected to give Harmon plenty of snaps in 2020 after seeing plenty of action for the Patriots over the previous seven seasons. He’ll create turnovers with improvement in run support.
S Tracy Walker
In his second year, Walker posted 103 tackles, one Int, and eight defended passes over 13 games. Even with success, he did allow too many touchdowns with only league-average value defending the run.
Team Defense Outlook
Detroit has some interesting pieces on their defense, but they need to put pressure on the quarterback to correct their failure in pass coverage last year. I expect the run defense to be improved while still lacking the overall playmakers to make a push higher than league average as a fantasy defense. Possible matchup value if their cornerbacks play at a high level.
Golladay had four games with 23-plus PPR (points-per-reception) points with Stafford under center, while his production dipped to just one contest with more than 18 PPR points with the Stafford on the sidelines. If Stafford can stay healthy, Golladay should produce strong WR1 numbers once again in 2020.
The fourth-year wideout put up elite WR1 numbers in Weeks 6-9 with three 100-yard-plus receiving games. However, with Stafford out of the lineup, Golladay was only able to top the century receiving mark (158) once on Thanksgiving versus the Bears. Those stats were padded by a 75-yard touchdown grab on the opening offensive possession.
What Are the Oddsmakers Saying?
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Golladay’s total receiving yards number in 2020 set at 1,100.5 yards.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Golladay’s Fantasy Value in 2020
Fantasy owners have seen Golladay develop into the clear-cut WR1 in the Lions offense, and even though he finished as the overall WR9 in PPR formats in 2019, he could be in line for even bigger things in 2020.
Anchored by strong volume, the veteran wideout has seen steady improvement in one important area for fantasy owners: touchdowns. In his first three seasons in the NFL, Golladay has seen his touchdown production increase from three to five to a league-high 11 in 2019.
“If Golladay has a healthy Stafford throwing to him for a full season in 2020, he has a great shot at putting together consecutive double-digit TD campaigns.”
Based on where he was drafted last summer at the Fantasy Football World Championships (FFWC), Golladay rewarded fantasy owners in 2019; despite playing half of the season with Jeff Driskel and David Blough tossing the rock. If Stafford can remain healthy, and Golladay is able to play a full season alongside him, my model envisions a potential 70-plus reception campaign resulting in excess of 1,250 yards.
2020 Lions Schedule
Betting Advice: Kenny Golladay Receiving Yards
Back in May, Golladay’s receiving number stood at 1,175.5. However, following consistent steam on the under, the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust this number down by 75 yards. Bettors should not be worried about Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson or Danny Amendola biting into his expected volume in 2020. Jones, while a solid veteran presence, has seen two consecutive seasons shortened by knee and ankle injuries leading to just 22 games over that span.
I believe the steam is heading in the wrong direction, therefore lending extreme value to going over the erroneously lowered projection. This is a great buy-low investment for all sports bettors. Play this number over with extreme confidence.
Browns center and NFLPA President J.C. Tretter attempts to address a few of the public’s misconceptions regarding player safety and the job at hand for NFL players. After reading the message, it almost comes off as a warning to the public that things between the NFLPA, the league owners, and Commissioner Roger Goodell are about to get a bit heated; as the league implements their safety guidelines over the coronavirus.
In the release, Tretter writes,
“As we begin our fight for necessary COVID-19 protections, these recycled misconceptions will be used to undermine the strength of our union and the legitimacy of your career.”
Somewhat reminiscent of the closing scene from Eminem’s 8 Mile, Tretter proceeds to dispel what the public and Roger Goodell would say against the players in an effort to place them as culprits to not playing this year because of the coronavirus.
Tretter lists some common arguments against players including the following:
- “You should just play for the love of the game.”
- “Just go play you’re young and healthy”
- “Athletes are overpaid.”
- “I had to go back to work you should have to go back, too”
"More so than any other sport, the game of football is the perfect storm for virus transmission. There are protections, both short and long term, that must be agreed upon before we can safely return to work. The NFLPA will be diligent as we demand that the NFL provide us the safest workplace possible.”
Nevada Casinos Lose 99.4% of Revenue in May
The Nevada Gaming Control Board released the casino industry’s earning for the month of May and the results, as you can imagine during a global pandemic with all casinos essentially shut down are astonishing.
According to the report, casino revenue dropped 99.4% in May 2020 compared to May 2019. In total casinos brought in $5.8 million in May compared to nearly a billion in May of last year.
There are 10.3 million cases of the virus worldwide, with over 507,000 deaths. The U.S. has 2.6 million cases and 126,000 deaths.
Dr. Anthony Fauci and CDC Director Robert Redfield testified in front of a Senate committee Tuesday. Fauci said that he would not, at this pace, be surprised if the U.S. reached 100,000 new cases per day if the U.S. does not get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. Currently, we’re seeing an average of 40,000 cases per day.
Fauci also stressed that bars, especially indoor bars, are not good.
Redfield warned that we need “aggressive modernization” of contact tracing procedures in the United States and that a “substantial investment” must take place in order for that to happen. He noted that if contact tracing isn’t being done in real-time, then it “doesn’t really have any value.”
Redfield also expressed that he’s disappointed that American Airlines will resume booking their flights to capacity. He added, “I can say this is under critical review right now by us at C.D.C.”
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Secretary Treasury Steven Mnuchin are appearing in front of the House Financial Services Committee.
”We have entered an important new phase and have done so sooner than expected,” Powell said in prepared remarks ahead of his testimony Tuesday.
“While this bounceback in economic activity is welcome, it also presents new challenges - notably, the need to keep the virus in check.”
Powell noted in his remarks that more than 20 million Americans have lost their jobs since the pandemic took hold in mid-March.
“The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus... A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities."
Mnuchin, on the other hand, was more positive in his remarks.
Ahead of the testimony being given, Mnuchin said,
“We are in a strong position to recover because the Trump Administration worked with Congress on a bipartisan basis to pass legislation and provide liquidity to workers and markets in record time.”
I'm psyched to have Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill as my top two picks. Tucker D. Franklin from Arrowhead Report recently detailed a very high receiving yards over/under total set by oddsmakers:
Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook place Hill’s receiving yards over/under at 1,150.5 yards. Hill has surpassed the 1,150-yard mark in two of the last three seasons, but an injury in 2019 kept him from breaking 1,000 yards. Hill’s total is the sixth-highest projection among receivers. Only Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans are all projected to haul in more yards than Hill.
I wanted to give you some things that I learned from this draft that might be helpful as the fantasy football season moves forward.
Running backs are scarce and go off the board EARLY
With the 14th pick in the first round, I was convinced that I would take Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake at the turn. That whole plan went out the window when Drake was selected seventh overall! In fact, 12 of the first 13 first-round picks were running backs. If you look at the draft board, you will see that I went in an entirely different direction, trying to stand out from my opponents.
If you want Travis Kelce or George Kittle, you will end up spending a second-round pick
Although Kelce and Kittle are fantastic talents, I always have trepidation taking a tight end before Round 5 at the earliest. Taking a tight end early seems to leave teams with a hole at either running back and/or wide receiver, and I am unwilling to do that, especially in a 14-team draft. The team who took Kelce has rookie J.K. Dobbins as his RB2, and the team who took Kittle has DeSean Jackson as his WR3. Both are way too speculative for my liking.
You can get excellent quarterback value late
I took Buccaneers QB Tom Brady in Round 11. Rams QB Jared Goff went in Round 14. There is so much value later in drafts that I am not sure why fantasy players feel the need to take a quarterback early. I know it is hard to be patient, but the patient players will have a considerable advantage.
Rookies seem to be going earlier than ever before.
Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire went in early Round 2. Lions RB D’Andre Swift went in late Round 3. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor in mid-Round 4 and a host of rookie wide receivers started going off the board at the beginning of Round 7. The bottom line is that if you want to draft the top rookies, you will have to pay a premium.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will most likely be gone by Round 3 or earlier.
As I said before, quarterback value was surprisingly good later in the draft. However, if you are one of those fantasy players who insist on taking a quarterback early, you will have to strike in Round 2 or early Round 3 before Jackson and Mahomes are gone.
Don’t overlook mid-round depth
After taking Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill in Round 2 and Rams RB Cam Akers in Round 4, I made sure to get their backups in Mecole Hardman (Round 10) and Darrell Henderson (Round 9) to make sure that my team was solidified in case of injury. A lot of fantasy players overlook this simple strategy, which is critical, especially in deeper formats.
Dare to be different
By taking three wide receivers with my first three picks and then taking rookie running back Cam Akers in Round 4, I took a significant chance to stand out. While I might lose this league, I tried to “go big or go home.” In a 14-team league, playing it safe will never bring home a fantasy championship.
The news doesn't come as a shock after Bucs coach Bruce Arians said in 2019 that he's not a fan of the changes he's seen in Brown over the years. During Arians's tenure as the Steelers' offensive coordinator, the team selected Brown in the sixth round of the 2010 NFL draft.
"There's too much miscommunication," Arians said. "Too much diva. I've heard so many stories. I like Antonio. He plays as hard as anybody on Sunday and he practices hard. He's just gotta make better decisions off the field, be on time, do some of those little things."
Brown missed most of the 2019 season after the Patriots released him in September, and he has repeatedly stated his desire to return to the NFL.
Several free agents remain on the market, and with Cam Newton heading to New England, who will be the next player to land at a new team?
Check out the latest news and rumors around the NFL:
Free-agent DE Jadeveon Clowney intends to sign with a team "before the season starts if everything still goes on time with the season." Clowney said he has "not narrowed down a final team. I'm still open." (Josina Anderson, ESPN)
The NFL and NFLPA are continuing to discuss the possibility of shortening the preseason schedule. (Mike Garafolo, NFL Network)
One team source told ESPN's Josina Anderson that the team is under the "impression that Colin Kaepernick still wants to play, and that conversation was positive." Another team source expressed the difficulty over not being able to hold individual free-agent workouts yet.
After the Patriots signed Cam Newton, speculation mounted that Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. might land in New England. Beckham shut down those rumors when he responded to comedian Bob Menery's tweet by saying, "Lol no sir boss! But y’all got my brother, wishin nothin but the best and LUV."
The NFLPA has asked agents to speak to players about risk factors that could make them more susceptible to illness as a result of the coronavirus. The NFLPA's letter said agents should give players the information provided by the Centers for Disease Control, and players should consider reviewing it with their personal physicians. (Dan Graziano, ESPN)
"I would never bet against the young man, that's for sure."
ESPN reported Sunday that Newton signed a one-year contract with the Patriots, who were looking for a new quarterback after Tom Brady departed for the Buccaneers in free agency.
The Panthers released Newton in March. The quarterback had one year remaining on the $100 million contract extension he signed in 2015.
Newton's throwing shoulder has been operated on twice, and he played in only two games last season due to a Lisfranc sprain in his foot. The previous season, he started 14 games, completing 68% of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns.
Carolina selected Newton with the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft. During his Panthers tenure, Newton captured Rookie of the Year honors, three Pro Bowl selections and the league MVP award in 2015. His 29,041 career passing yards are the most in franchise history.
"Don't bet against him," Rivera said. "I really wouldn't. First of all, you got to know who he is and understand what all he's gone through. He's a guy that's always tried to do things, I think, because he's felt the pressure. He felt the pressure of being the No. 1 overall pick. He felt the pressure of having won the Heisman Trophy and being the No. 1 overall pick. He felt the pressure of being a black quarterback, with all the stuff that's been heaped on him.
"He's really had to find his way through it, and he's done a great job with it."
just like he did Norv Turner. Have you ever seen parents around their grandchildren for the first time and wondered where these affable, jovial people came from? This is Belichick’s twilight phase. Newton is the carefree talisman of a new phase in life.
But like every large-scale transaction in the NFL, there are two sides of the coin. Some people will benefit from the offseason’s most consequential move. Some people, most certainly, will not. Here is a list of said people as best we can tell.
WINNERS
Patriots fans
The NFL is mirroring general society in that the fortunate seem to be building castle walls around their spoils and locking them in. The only challenge for Patriots fans will be adjusting their collective identities around another quarterback narrative that isn’t Tawmy werked his way up from the seventh rawnd. My guess is that when Cam Newton is posting comical Madden numbers en route to 30-point divisional victories, they’ll find a way to move on. There really isn’t a comparison to being a Patriots fan in the 2000s, it’s really incredible. And the best part is, this will be a totally different way of winning than they’ve done in the past. Maybe a more entertaining version of winning. It’s like upgrading from Yachting to Speed Yachting!
Bill Belichick
I wish I got the kind of consistent, basic satisfaction out of anything the way Belichick does in prodding his employer (by this, I mean the NFL). We’ll get to the timing of the Cam Newton announcement in a minute, but the mechanics of it are also something. Should the Patriots play their cards right, they’re in line to recoup a compensatory third-round pick from Newton by the time they are slated to lose a third-round pick for illegally taping the sidelines of a Cincinnati Bengals game last year. From a coaching standpoint, he gives himself the best possible kind of fresh start; the one that almost guarantees a certain level of success at a time when some expected him to stumble.
Josh McDaniels
I think Josh McDaniels does not get enough credit for his role in the Patriots’ structure, which has a chance to be rectified to some degree in 2020. Regardless, McDaniels will remain a viable head coaching candidate despite stiffing the Colts and have his choice of plum gigs that feature ready-to-win veteran quarterbacks. He also gets to work with a quarterback who represents the actual, delivered promise of the Tim Tebow selection McDaniels made as head coach of the Broncos back in 2010. Newton is impossible to defend as a runner and is devastating as a passer, which could stoke McDaniels’s creativity and allow him to run something closer to what he’d hoped during his first stint as a head coach.
Public relations buffs
A former strategist to the current President suggested that the secret to lessening the sting of unfavorable news is to “flood the zone with s---.” What took place on Sunday night wasn’t quite a flooding—maybe it resembled something closer to the old informational trojan horse—but the result was pretty masterful. The Patriots were dinged $1.1 million, they lost a third-round pick in 2021 and their film crew will not be able to film games during the 2020 season, which was all information we received (via the same outlet) as the Cam Newton news, just 16 minutes later. Whether or not there is more there there, the fact that our attention was already firmly embedded in the Newton move was a masterful okeydoke from team Patriots. Truthfully, our collective consciousness was probably just starving for some news that did not involve a kind of social, economic or political despair and the surge we got from envisioning this type of fantasy football transaction was cover for all types of less-than-savory activities.
LOSERS
The Jarrett Stidham content mill
There exists a legion of sportswriters who make a fine living waiting to see which way the wind blows and then acting like they were the meteorologist who predicted it all along (please don’t look up my past work to determine whether or not I’m guilty as well). I hesitate to call Jarrett Stidham a “loser” in this column because I don’t think that’s true. I think Stidham fell victim to the most unprecedented offseason in NFL history and his team felt the need to hedge their bets. I still believe there is a chance, if the season starts on time, that Stidham ends up piloting the offense for at least a few weeks. The losers are those who scoffed at the rest of the world for suggesting that Belichick might be after someone like Andy Dalton or Newton. Every football writer fancies himself or herself a faux Belichickian scholar when the truth is that, while we usually have a decent idea of what Belichick might do, he has built an entire career on simultaneously preparing something that we never would have expected. This is the true wisdom of a Belichickian scholar. Save your haughtiness.
Tom Brady
I think there is an emotional component of every quarterback that makes them want to be missed when they are gone. Oddly, the three quarterbacks typically revered as the greatest of all time—Brady, Joe Montana and Brett Favre—did not have that luxury right away. Because of the cache of their replacements, it took time for perspective to solidify. Montana was consistently nipped and eventually replaced by the great Steve Young and Brady will now be theoretically swapped for 2015 MVP Cam Newton. Favre, like Montana, had to watch Aaron Rodgers eat into his late prime. Both Young and Newton were exciting and drastically different versions of the legends they replaced, which makes the process even more interesting. Here is a fan base that may not be pining for your return right away while, at the same time, unconsciously finding themselves a little more entertained.
Every other GM in the NFL
There is absolutely no reason that Cam Newton should have been on the scrap pile for this long, especially during a season when Belichick was considered somewhat vulnerable at the quarterback position. It is nothing short of malpractice. There were at least a half dozen teams that had competitive quarterback situations who could have lured Newton. There were plenty of teams with cap space to burn. Every team in the NFL could have utilized Newton as an appreciating asset. Instead, as ESPN’s Adam Schefter would later report, only one other team—the Cleveland Browns—bothered to pick up the phone and call.
The children
I grew up around a lot of Bulls, Mariners and Cowboys fans in northeastern Pennsylvania—which was aggravating given that, like me, none of these other children had left the greater Scranton area before. I was diligent in my fandom, either inheriting the teams I was born with or, when it came to declaring NFL fandom, waiting for the next franchise to come into existence (Browns, womp womp). I think now of a middle school somewhere in Pennsylvania where the haughty Patriots fan child motors into the first day of school in a Cam Newton jersey ready to continue his or her tortuous behavior despite having no base in the New England area. Meanwhile, your team is stuck shuffling between Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb at quarterback and you’re trying to find a way to talk about anything other than the upcoming draft at the beginning of the season.
The Bears were coming off a 12-4 season in which Mitchell Trubisky took a significant leap in Year 2. If not due to a 43-yard field goal somehow meticulously flailing off both an upright and crossbar, the Bears may have been on their way to an NFC Divisional Round matchup with perhaps a Super Bowl appearance in their sights.
After Jordan Howard failed to rush for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, in Round 3, the Bears traded up to get their guy: a stud running back out of Iowa State University who set college records in Pro Football Focus’ “missed tackles” metric.
Plus, their kicker woes had been solved with a full systems go kicking competition. Crisis averted, right?
Unfortunately, both Trubisky and the Bears offensive line regressed to one of the worst in football. And their newfound star rookie running back never was given an opportunity to get into a rhythm all season.
The Bears ran the ball just over 40.5-percent of the time, compared to passing 59.5-percent in 2019. If your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes or Matt Ryan, that's completely logical with weapons galore and an offense needed to carry the load. The Bears were the complete opposite. They ranked in the bottom seven in nearly every single offensive category, while conversely were a top-10 defense for much of the year.
"Juan and I have had conversations already about the formations we would like to use in the run game for our opening game of the season," offensive coordinator Bill Lazor said. "It's our job when your title is coordinator; you have to make sure it all fits.
"You have to make sure the run game, the pass game, the play-action, the drop-backs, the screens, they all fit."
Montgomery left much to be desired in his actual performance, running for just 793 yards on 3.7 yards-per-carry. The passing game targets that were hyped up never came his way, catching only 23 receptions on 33 targets. The offensive line was an issue, but he also needs to improve.
And yet, he still finished with over 1,000 total yards, seven touchdowns, and is likely to expand his role in 2020. Montgomery also finished with the sixth-most inside-the-five carries amongst all RBs a season ago, leading to golden opportunities to add points to the scoreboard, both in the game and for our fantasy teams.
I still believe Montgomery is worthy of the potential star they reached up in the third round to draft, but there needs to be a far greater emphasis on maximizing efficiency in the running game.
In a 12-team PPR, Montgomery’s ADP lands at RB25, landing in the middle-to-late fifth round at 56 overall.
The Bears have a ways to go to earn the benefit of the doubt for last season's offensive regression, particularly in the running game. But there is no other running back in this range that will command the type of touches and volume expected to be carried out by Montgomery here. With a three-down opportunity and an expanded role in the passing game, he's an outstanding buy-low target at this ADP, and I'll absolutely be taking him.
Oh, and pass the Kool-Aid one more time? I think I’m ready to start drinking again.
the Cam Newton signing, as it relates to Bill Belichick’s brand of logic. He told me that in 2011, Belichick told everyone that the one thing that would kill the team early on, post-lockout, was being out of shape, and giving up big plays as a result of it. This guy then said, regarding Newton, “So what better way to pressure on a tired defense than have Cam back there?” And then there’s this—if the Patriots feel like they needed to be a little simpler to play fast on offense, Newton can facilitate that in allowing New England to build more off its run game. Now, I think the primary reason to sign here is giving yourself multiple shots at getting the quarterback position right, post-Tom Brady, and the signing absolutely fits Belichick’s pattern of buying low on prodigious talents (Randy Moss, Corey Dillon, Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth, etc., etc.) But the stuff specific to 2011 sure is a nice side benefit.
• I also think the contract terms Newton agreed to say more about this offseason than anything else. Spending is always craziest over the first wave of free agency. After that, there were a pretty high number of high-profile quarterbacks available—Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston among them—who were waiting for a market out that never heated back up for them. Guys like Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Foles and even Chase Daniel benefitted from coming off the market early on, while the market was hot. After that, the reality became clear, and that’s that for the first time in forever quarterback supply overwhelmed quarterback demand.
• One addendum to my MMQB take on the Patriots’ penalties for their media crew videotaping the Bengals’ sideline—that third-round pick they lost is significant, and because of more than just the blown draft capital. New England was cooperative and apologetic about the violation, but had hoped it would be assessed as a non-football misstep. The inclusion of the draft-pick penalty is the NFL implicitly holding Patriots football ops accountable.
• With the NFL football ops tweeting out July 28 as the start date for training camp, it’s worth noting that the Chiefs and Texans open earlier—the rule under the new CBA is teams can start 47 days before their opener. Since Houston and Kansas City are playing in the kickoff game, both will start camp on July 25. The Texans are welcoming in their rookies on July 18, and have the quarterbacks coming in on July 20. Chiefs QBs and rookies report on the 22nd.
• I’d love more from Colin Kaepernick on 2015-17 in his new Netflix doc, but it doesn’t sound like that’s going to be a part of it. He’s got an executive producer credit in the announcement, which means if he wants to keep that stuff out of there, that stuff will be kept out of there.
• Johnny Manziel told the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal that, for him, he views football as “in the past.” And that’s too bad. It’s been lost in the mess his life became, but Manziel was electric as a player and competitor, and he’s still just 27 years old. Because he was such a unique player, I always thought Doug Flutie was a good comp for him. It’s a shame we never really saw what he might’ve become over time.
• Bucs LB Shaq Barrett told SiriusXM radio Monday that he plans to sign his franchise tender if he doesn’t get a long-term deal by the July 15 deadline, and that raised an interesting X-factor for the others tagged but still unsigned—Bengals WR A.J. Green, Chiefs DT Chris Jones, Jaguars DE Yannick Ngaukoe and Broncos S Justin Simmons. Given all of the COVID-related issues, would it make sense for those guys to stay away until Week 1 to avoid getting infected, or being around those who come in with the virus? I think it’s a sort of interesting question, given the likelihood that some teams will have a significant number of cases through training.
• While we’re there, I thought Eagles OT Lane Johnson explained what players will be facing next month well: “Ultimately, it’s a risk that we’re all willing to take to go outside your house or whatever you’re doing, going shopping. I’ve been doing a pretty good job of staying in the house, doing my social distancing protocols. Yeah, with everybody it’s going to be a risk that we’re going to have to take and see what happens.” Really, it’s not unlike what many in America are facing (without the risk of having to physically run into your co-workers over and over again, of course).
• Just to update something we’ve been keeping an eye on, five of the NFL’s 32 first-round picks have signed. Last year at this juncture, 26 had signed. And there are veterans who still haven’t actually signed their deals either, because they can’t take physicals yet. Which, as you might imagine, has led some to be very careful about how they’re working out ahead of camp.
• All the best to long-time agent Paul Sheehy and his family. Per long-time Broncos beat man Mike Klis, Sheehy is battling COVID-19 and has been on a ventilator on Friday, which is another reminder of the seriousness of the virus, and the fact that we’re not nearly out of the woods with it yet as a country.
the Chicago Bears slipped to 8-8 last year because a fade offensively (29th in points scored – 280 and yards gained). They scored 141 fewer points than in 2018 (421).
Chicago brought in Matt Nagy to be the head coach after a successful 2017 season as the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs. Nagy had ten seasons of NFL experience working under Andy Reid. He has a 20-12 record over two years as a head coach with one appearance in the playoffs.
Bill Lazor takes over as the offensive coordinator after spending 2019 as an analyst for Penn State. He has four seasons of offensive coordinator experience. His NFL career started in 2003 while coaching in the league for 13 years.
The Bears’ defense slipped to fourth in points allowed (298) and eighth in yards allowed while being less opportunistic.
Chicago brought in Chuck Pagano to take over the defense in 2019. His 2011 success as the Ravens' defensive coordinator helped him earn the head coaching job for Colts for six seasons. He went 11-5 in each of his first three years with Indy while making the playoffs each season. Pagano faded over his next three seasons (20-28), pushing his career record to 53-43. He has 19 years of experience in the NFL.
Free Agency
In the offseason, the Bears’ defense lost S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S Tashaun Gipson, CB Prince Amukamara, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, DE Leonard Floyd, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Sherrick McManis, DT Nick Williams, and DE Aaron Lynch.
Clinton-Dix was the best player lost. He played well every year in the league with success in both run support and pass coverage. Amukamara tends to be a league-average player in coverage. Kwiatkowski projects to see playing time on passing downs, but he does play well vs. the run and some production in sacks.
The Bears added DE Robert Quinn and CB Artie Burns to their defense. Quinn will start the year at age 30, but he does upgrade the pass rush. Burns has been up-and-down in coverage while seeing minimal playing time in 2019 for the Steelers.
Chicago moved on from WR Taylor Gabriel, QB Chase Daniel, TE Bradley Sowell, G Ted Larson, and G Kyle Long.
The best two players added to the offense were TE Jimmy Graham and T Germain Ifedi. Graham is past his prime, but he’ll start the year as the starter. Ifedi continues to underachieve in area of blocking,
Kmet does have some flaws coming out of college. His release, fight off pressed blocks, and initial quickness invites some questions with his three-down value. When given a free run to the second level of the defense, his game looks much better. Kmet will be a vertical threat with enough size and speed (4.7 forty yard dash) to hit on long plays down the seam.
Johnson has playmaking skills while showing the ability to work as a press corner. His speed (4.5 forty), quickness, and vision add to his coverage area. He gets in trouble at times when trying to cheat by looking at the quarterback eyes. I expect his game to be more reliable as the field shortens. Johnson also gains value when asked to play multiple coverages.
With their first two picks in the fifth round, Chicago added DE Trevis Gipson and CB Kindle Vildor.
Gibson brings an explosive first step while having the power to finish when seeing daylight. His lack of experience and technique leaves him short on pass-rushing moves and the thought process to vary his attack. To make a step forward, he needs to develop his hands. Gibson should offer rotational value early in his career while owning the talent to become an upside player.
Vildor shows strength and speed (4.44 forty) while being slightly undersized (5’10” and 190 lbs.). Just like CB Jaylon Johnson, his play should work well in both man and zone coverages. Vildor will make mistakes in coverage due to his vision falling more into the thinker-mentality, which leaves him late in his decision making. Even with some fight and power, Vildor doesn’t fire when needed in run support.
WR Darnell Mooney was the choice with their third pick in the fifth round. His game is built on big plays, but he doesn’t have the size (5’10” and 175 lbs.), strength, or hands to be trusted on many plays at the next level. The Bears will look to get him in space or use him on gadget plays where his open-field running could lead to long touchdowns. His speed (4.38 forty) gives him a chance in the deep passing game.
Hambright played tackle in college, but he is expected to be shifted to guard at the next level. His quickness is an edge off the snap, earning his best value as move blocker in a quick-hitting run game. His hands create early wins, but his technique with his feet invites some failure in pass protection.
Simmons comes with experience at tackle and guard. He lacks the bulk (290 lbs.) to anchor on the inside at this point in his career. At 6’5”, he should add weight and get stronger, helping his growth and game. Simmons owns an edge in reach while needing to improve his technique.
Offensive Line
Chicago dropped to 27th in rushing yards (1,458) with eight rushing TDs and five runs over 20 yards. Their ball carriers gained 3.7 yards per rush.
The Bears slipped to 25th in passing yards (3,573 yards) with only 20 TDs and 12 Ints. Their offensive line allowed 45 sacks and 86 QB hits. Chicago completed 39 passes over 20 yards.
LT Charles Leno
Leno started for the Bears over the last five seasons after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2014. In 2019, he allowed too much pressure on the quarterback while still grading as an edge for the fourth straight year. His play as run blocking took a big hit last year after playing well in this area over the two previous seasons.
LG James Daniels
Daniels improved in both run and pass blocking last year after moving into the starting lineup in Week 8 in 2018. Over two seasons in the league, Daniels allowed minimal sacks. He gains his edge with his quickness and lateral movement. Daniel offers the most upside in a quick-hitting run game while needing to add strength to handle power rushers in pass protection. Chicago drafted him in the second round in 2018.
C Cody Whitehair
Whitehair was one of the better centers in his rookie season after getting drafted in the second round in 2016. Whitehair played left tackle in college while his natural position is at guard. In his first two years in the NFL, Whitehair rated well in run blocking. Over the past two seasons, he regressed in the run game. Whitehair now has two strong seasons on his resume in pass protection and a neutral showing in 2019.
The Bears will shift Ifedi back to guard after seeing action over his previous three seasons after right tackle. He continues to allow too much pressure in the quarterback no matter where he lines up while ranking poorly over the past three years as run blocker. Ifedi does have a first-round (2016) pedigree.
RT Bobbie Massie
Massie missed six games last year, with most coming from a right ankle injury. He had a rebound in his game in 2018, which was a result of success in pass blocking. Unfortunately, Massie has now failed in each of the last four seasons as a run blocker. Last year he finished as a league-average player in pass protection.
Offensive Line Outlook
This offensive line has a lot to prove in 2020 after struggling in all areas last year. The left side of the line added to the center position has a chance to be league-average or better. I don’t trust Ifedi to be an asset, but a position change should stabilize his weakness in pass protection. A new offensive coordinator should help this offense move back in a positive direction.
Offensive Schedule
The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.
2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
The Bears have 11 games for their rushing offense that rank close to the league-average. They have two below-par matchups (TB and NO) for their run game while expecting to have success against the Panthers and the Jaguars.
Chicago does have a favorable schedule for their passing offense. Based on last year, I don’t see any bad matchups. The Bears have six contests (NYG, TB, TEN, HOU, and DET X 2) that offer upside for their ability to pass the ball.
Offense
Last year the Bears ran a 40/60 split for the run/pass offense. Their offensive line struggled in all areas, which led to struggles on early downs in the run game. Chicago has a top defense, which points a change back to a run-oriented offense while hoping to regain some play-action value in the passing game. Their receiver core still has questions at tight end and their depth at wide receiver.
Here’s a look at the early projections for the Bears, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:
Despite playing through a left shoulder injury (labrum), Trubisky set career highs in completions (326) and pass attempts (516), but had a significant step back in his yards per pass attempt (6.1 lowest in the NFL – 7.4 in 2018).
Surprisingly, his WR1 (Allen Robinson – 98/1147/7) held value, which left failure behind almost every other door in the receiving game.
In 2018, Trubisky had the feel of a rising QB with slick movements as a runner (68/421/3). We see how that played out.
The Bears have questions at TE (46/425/2), but they did add Jimmy Graham via free agency and Cole Kmet in the draft. WR Anthony Miller (52/656/2) played through his second season with injuries while failing to develop into a top tier WR2.
I expect a bounce-back by the Bears’ offense in 2020 while being in the free-agent pool in most fantasy leagues. Viable QB2 if his season starts well. Trubisky had surgery in late-January to repair his labrum issue.
His ADP (260) remains low due to Nick Foles being in the mix to start.
I like the upside of Trubisky, but it comes down to wins to keep the job. On the first run of the projections, I gave him 95 percent of the quarterback playing time, which came to 4,081 combined yards with 25 TDs and 11 interceptions.
After helping the Eagles win the Super Bowl in 2017, Foles only played in nine games over the past two seasons. Over this span, he passed for 2,149 yards with ten TDs and six Ints while gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt. His completion rate (69.9) ranked above his career average (61.9) over the last two seasons.
In his career, Foles showed the ability to win games in 2013 (8-2), 2014 (6-2), and with Philly (10-3 – including the playoffs). His ADP (222) ranks higher than Mitchell Trubisky in the high-stakes market in mid-June.
Other options: Tyler Bray
Running Backs
Over the first two seasons with Matt Nagy as the head coach, the Bears have struggled to run the ball (3.9 and 3.7 yards per rush). They continue to give their running backs plenty of chances in the passing game (2018 – 101/963/6 and 2019 – 111/663/4). Last year their backs gained only 6.0 yards per catch, which was well below their 2019 success (9.5).
In 2017 and 2018, Chicago’s running backs scored 32 TDs combined or one per game. I expect another 30-percent opportunity for the running backs in the passing game with a rebound on early downs.
Montgomery wasn’t much better than RB Tarik Cohen last year on early downs (3.7 yards per rush), but the Bears still gave him 16.7 touches per game.
His only three contests of value came in Week 8 (147 combined yards with one TD and four catches), Week 9 (76 combined yards with two TDs and three catches), and Week 17 (23/113/1).
Chicago had him on the field for 63 percent of their plays.
Over his last two seasons at Iowa St., Montgomery rushed for 2,362 yards with 24 TDs on 515 carries. He gained only 4.6 yards per rush, which is unimpressive at the college level. He picked 71 catches for 582 yards in his college career. Many of his TDs came on short easy runs while lacking open-field moves and vision to create more significant plays.
There’s upside here with three-down ability, but the Bears need to solve their offensive line issues to create more significant plays. Borderline RB2 in draft value (ADP – 52), but Montgomery is worth fighting for on draft day.
I set his initial bar at 1,206 combined yards with nine TDs and 30 catches, ranking 26th.
Cohen had 143 touches last year, but he gained over 20 yards on just two plays. Both his yards per rush (3.3) and yards per catch (5.8) screamed bench role while showing much more upside in both areas in 2018 (4.5 and 10.2).
The Bears’ offense struggled in all facets last year, which gives Cohen a chance at a rebound in value this year. Even so, Chicago looks committed to RB David Montgomery (267 touches in his rookie season).
The bottom line here is the Bears’ offense needs to play better.
In 2018, Cohen finished as the 11th highest scoring RB (236.95) in PPR leagues (27th in 2019 – 164.10). My bullish projections came to 1,067 combined yards with five TDs and 72 catches as I view him as the second-best playmaker on the team. Cohen looks to be a value in drafts based on his ADP (108) in June.
Other options: Ryan Nall, Napoleon Maxwell, Artavis Pierce
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver opportunity for the Bears has grown by about six percentage points in each of the last two seasons despite questionable depth. Last year Chicago’s WRs accounted for 69 percent of their overall passing yards and 57.7 percent of their completions. They finished 10th in wide receiver targets (349) in 2019 while showing regression in their yards per catch (11.6).
The only bright spot in the Bears’ offense last year was the play of Robinson. He set career-highs in catches (98), targets (154), and catch rate (63.6) despite Chicago’s wide receivers catching only 214 passes for 2,484 yards and 14 TDs on 349 targets.
Robinson caught seven or more passes in eight games while finishing up the year with double-digit targets in five of his last six contests.
His better play came at home (52/646/4 on 82 targets).
He’s showing growth in his possession skills while also having the ability to make big plays. Over six seasons in the NFL, Robinson only has one other year of value (2015 – 80/1400/14).
Viable WR2 with his success tied to a rebound in the Bears’ fading passing game. Fantasy owners have him priced as the 12th receiver off the table in mid-June with an ADP of 36. His early projections came to 91 catches for 1,108 yards and seven touchdowns, which ranked 15th at wide receiver for me.
I’ve been a fan of Miller since he came into the league, but a left shoulder injury that required two surgeries limited his growth.
Last year the Bears’ offense was a mess in all areas. His star did shine in Week 13 (9/140/1) and Week 15 (9/118/1), which may be the signal for his breakthrough year.
Miller also had six games with one catch or less, which led to only five combined catches and 31 yards.
Over the last two seasons at Memphis, Miller caught 191 passes for 2,896 yards and 32 TDs while chipping in for another 94 yards and one TD rushing the ball. Anthony offers a unique combination of strength, route running, and open field ability. I love his moments with the ball and his adjustments to the ball in the deep passing game.
A forgotten player with a lot to prove in his third year in the league. Don’t dismiss as an upside WR5. Miller has ADP of 149 in June as the 52nd wide receiver off the table. I’ll start the bidding at 59 catches for 766 yards and four TDs and hope for more production.
Ted Ginn
The shine of Ginn being a viable third wide receiver ended in 2017 (53/787/4). He missed 11 games in 2018 due to a right knee injury that required surgery in mid-October. That season started with three steady games (5/68/1, 4/55, and 3/12/1). After returning from a ten-game injury vacation, Ginn caught 11 passes for 176 yards on 21 targets in his three games late in the year.
In 2019, the Saints gave him WR3 snaps for their first 11 games, but Ginn played well only in Week 1 (7/101). Over his final 15 games, he had two catches or fewer in 13 contests while never gaining over 50 yards.
At age 35, Ginn is only a flash player with a diminishing opportunity.
Javon Wims
His size (6’3’ and 215 lbs.) and hands should make him a viable threat at the goal line on fade routes. Wims has the wheels and pass-catching skill set to win jump balls in the deep passing game. His route running isn’t where it needs to be with questions in his release against press coverage.
In his second year in the NFL, Wims caught 18 of his 39 targets for 186 yards and one TD.
Riley Ridley
His route running, hands, and physical style grade well, but he can’t overcome some of his shortfalls in quickness and overall speed. The Bears would like him to develop into a possession type WR with limited value after the catch.
In his rookie season, Ridley caught only six passes for 69 yards, which came after a minimal career at Georgia (70/1026/13) over the seasons.
Other options: Cordarrelle Patterson, Darnell Mooney, Reggie Davis, Trevor Davis, Thomas Ives
Tight Ends
The tight end position in the Bears’ offense fell off a cliff in 2019. Their TEs gained only 9.2 yards per catch while scoring only a pair of touchdowns. Jimmy Graham adds another name this year, but his play has been fading since 2016. The addition of Cole Kmet does invite some intrigue, but he’ll need some time to develop.
Jimmy Graham
The two-year experiment in Green Bay didn’t go as planned for Graham. He struggled to score TDs with a diminishing opportunity.
Graham has four catches or fewer in 15 of his 16 starts while failing to gain over 50 yards in 14 contests.
Last year the Bears struggled offensively with the TE position being a part of the problem (46/425/2 on 69 targets).
A new home can’t offset his declining skill set at age 34. The Bears added TE Cole Kmet in the second round in this year’s draft, which steals snaps and targets away from Graham. I only see 42 catches for 461 yards and three TDs with no interest in the fantasy world based on his ADP (279 as the 35th TE drafted).
Cole Kmet
Heading into college, Kmet had top prospect pedigree for the tight end position. He had minimal chances over his first two years (2/14 and 15/162). His game pushed to an attractive NFL level over ten games (43/515/6) in 2019. Kmet missed the last two contests of the season with a broken collarbone.
The Bears will look to get him in space with motion before the snap to gain an earlier edge in pass patterns. At the goal line, Kmet will invite more scoring upside on delays or misdirection plays when he’s overlooked as a top scoring threat.
I expect him to get stronger and add more bulk, which will increase his value in both run and pass blocking. As of now, Kmet shows some foundation skills to have success as a blocker. He needs more fire or a sense of urgency off the snap while developing the foresight to anticipate where to locate his first target on the move when blocking.
His route running needs work with some questions with his hands when under fire. To be a stud TE, a player needs to own the short areas of the field. Kmet does not have that club in his bag at this point.
Kmet has an ADP of 296 in mid-June as the 64th tight end of the board.
Other options: Demetrius Harris, Adam Shaheen, Ben Braunecker, Jesper Horsted, Eric Saubert
Kicker
Eddy Pineiro
On draft day in 2019, the Bears traded for Pineiro to hopefully seize the kicking job. He missed all of 2018 with a groin injury.
In his two years at Florida in college, Eddy made 88.4 percent of his 43 field goal chances while missing only two extra-point tries in 58 attempts.
Pineiro made 23 of his 28 field goals (82.1 percent) in his first year with Chicago while recording a pair of misses in his 29 extra-point tries. He made both of his chances from 50 yards or longer. Early in the season, he played through a right knee injury.
In 2019, the Bears scored 30 TDs while creating 28 field goal chances. Possible upside if Chicago plays better offensively.
Defensive Schedule
Chicago’s run defense has a slight advantage in their schedule. They have five contests (IND, HOU, TEN, and MIN X 2) vs. teams that had some success running the ball in 2019. Six of their matchups (NYG, ATL, TB, LAR, and DET X 2) come against opponents that underperformed on the ground last year.
Their pass defense will get tested in two games (ATL and TB) plus the Rams, and the Saints should have success throwing the ball. Indianapolis ranked poorly in passing in 2019, but they should be improved with Philip Rivers starting at quarterback. The two games against the Vikings look favorable for the Bears pass defense.
Defense
The Bears fell to 9th in rushing yards allowed (1,632) with 16 TDs and nine runs over 20 yards. Opponents rushed for 3.9 yards per carry.
Chicago dipped to ninth in passing yards allowed (3,554) with 17 TDs and ten Ints. Their defense finished with 32 sacks (18 fewer than 2018). They allowed only 40 catches over 20 yards, which was the fourth-lowest total in the league.
DE Akiem Hicks
Hicks delivered the best season of his seven-year career in the NFL in 2018, where he was a beast in run support while adding 7.5 sacks and 55 tackles. Unfortunately, last year Hicks missed 11 games with knee and elbow issues. Over his previous three full seasons, he had 24 sacks in 48 games while grading favorably against the run.
DE Bilal Nichols
Over his first two seasons, Nichols had 55 tackles with three sacks over 27 games. His game regressed in all areas in 2019 while working as a rotational player.
DT Eddie Goldman
After playing at a high level vs. the run in 2018, Goldman regressed to the league average against the run. He offers minimal value in the pass rush with most of his playing time coming on early downs.
LB Khalil Mack
Entering 2019, Mack has 49 sacks over his last 62 games played. Last year he struggled to get to the quarterback (8.5 sacks – five-year low) while chipping in with 47 tackles. Over his previous two seasons, Mack delivered 11 forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, and eight defended passes. He remains one of the top run defenders in the league despite some missed tackles.
LB Roquan Smith
Smith delivered on his first-round value over his first 28 games in the NFL after Chicago drafted him eighth overall in 2018. Over two seasons of action, he posted 222 tackles, seven sacks, two Ints, and seven defended passes. Last Smith missed four games with hamstring and pectoral injuries. Even with his plus stats, he did show risk defending the run for the second straight season.
The Bears didn’t find a legendary power linebacker, but they did land an athletic speed player with great vision and anticipation. Smith should offer value in all facets of the game, but he will lose momentum if offensive linemen disrupt his free run at the ball carrier.
LB Danny Trevathan
Over the past six seasons, Trevathan only played a full season once (2018). He has over 100 tackles three times in his career, and he was well on his way to a fourth (70 tackles in nine games) before going down with an elbow injury in 2019. He only has nine sacks in 96 career games while picking up eight interceptions. Trevathan plays well in run support while improving in the pass rush.
Quinn regained his sack form (10.5 in 14 games) in 2019 after falling short of expectation over his previous four seasons (24 sacks over 48 contests). From 2012 and 2014, he finished with 40 sacks over 48 games. His run defense remains a liability.
CB Kyle Fuller
Fuller has 55 defended passes over the last three seasons. Last year he set a career-high in tackles (82) with three interceptions. Fuller gives up some big plays, and he’ll make some mistakes in TDs while improving as a player.
CB Jaylon Johnson
The Bears need Johnson to emerge as one of their top three cornerbacks in his rookie season. He did have surgery on his right shoulder in early March to repair a torn labrum. Chicago expects him to be ready for the start of the year.
S Eddie Jackson
Chicago signed Jackson to a four-year extension in early January for $58.4 million, but his play failed to match his excellent 2018 season (51 tackles, one sack, six Ints, 15 defended passes, and three TDs). He does an excellent job in coverage while helping in the run game. His one area of improvement is his tackling.
S Tashaun Gipson
In his only season with the Texans, Gipson struggled in all facets of the game. He’s never had a sack in his career (112 games). In most seasons, Gipson added to the run defense. His play in coverage improved over the last three seasons, but he will allow some TDs and big plays.
Team Defense Outlook
The two keys for the Bears' defense in 2020 will be regaining their pass rush and their offense, making more plays to help control the clock. They did address some of their issues in the offseason. Chicago has some playmakers, which invites scoring ability in the fantasy games. Top-ten option in the fantasy market with more upside if their core stays healthy.
