New on SI: NFL Playoff Picture and Draft Order Ahead of Week 16

Examining the current playoff picture and draft order, along with a ranking of which NFC East teams could be most dangerous in a first-round playoff game.

Watching Jalen Hurts lead another spirited performance for the Eagles on Sunday got me thinking a little deeper about the worst division in football. Some NFC team will be thanking the football gods for drawing the No. 4 seed once this thing is all said and done—right now that would be the Rams team that just lost to the Jets this past weekend—though there has to be a hierarchy among NFL coaches as to who they’d want to face the least.

Washington has a 75% chance of winning the NFC East, according to FiveThirtyEight, while the Giants have a 10% chance, the Eagles have a 9% chance and the Cowboys have a 5% chance (needing only to win out, for Washington to lose out, for the Giants to go 1–1 and the Eagles to go 1–1 the rest of the way).

But if you were Sean McVay, or whomever ends up with the No. 5 seed, would you be hoping Washington crawls through that door or for some form of minor upheaval within the division?

Here is my list of NFC East teams, in order of who I’d most want to avoid.

1. Washington

Alex Smith is the most readily capable quarterback in the division. He has the second-best wide receiver set of any team in the division, a relatively healthy offensive line and the kind of defensive line that could ruin a game plan.

2. Dallas

Andy Dalton is probably the second-most capable quarterback in the division and has the best wide receiver set of any NFC East team. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has gotten better about taking advantage of tight coverage on Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb could be surging toward a late-season peak.

3. Philadelphia

Hurts represents a total wild card. The one card Doug Pederson has left to play is the relative unpredictability of what his offense might look like, now with a different player under center.

4. New York Giants

The Giants have the kind of functionally stubborn defense that could hold the fort long enough for something weird to happen. Joe Judge is fiery, and Patrick Graham is a head coach in waiting. He could dial up a game plan from hell.

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Anyway, onto the playoff picture following a weird night when another good team lost to another very bad team (causing the Steelers and Bills to swap the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds).

AFC

1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Steelers
4. Titans
5. Browns
6. Colts
7. Dolphins

NFC

1. Packers
2. Saints
3. Seahawks
4. Washington
5. Rams
6. Buccaneers
7. Cardinals

What to watch for this weekend:

• The Packers can cement their first-round bye if they beat the Titans and the Seahawks lose to the Rams.

• Washington can win the NFC East if it beats the Panthers and the Giants lose to the Ravens.

• A Rams win, a Cardinals win or a Bears loss would notch a playoff berth for McVay & Co., while a Cardinals win coupled with a Bears loss would send Arizona to the postseason.

• A Saints win or a Buccaneers loss would hand the NFC South to New Orleans for the fourth straight season.

• Seattle will win the NFC West if it beats the Rams.

• Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will reach the playoffs if they beat the Lions.

• A Titans win, a Dolphins loss or a Ravens loss would lift Tennessee into the playoffs, while the Colts can make the playoffs by winning alongside either one of those Ravens or Dolphins losses.

• The Browns (!) can clinch a playoff spot if they beat the Jets and the Dolphins lose to the Raiders or the Ravens lose to the Giants.

As always, a thanks to playoffscenarios.com for the dirty work.

What to keep an eye on in the near future:

• This fantastic nugget on the Chiefs’ almost insurmountable lead for the top seed and bye. If Andy Reid wanted to, he could sit Patrick Mahomes for nearly a month.

• This fantastic nugget from Nate Ulrich over at the Akron Beacon Journal. The AFC North could come down to a season-ending Browns-Steelers game in Cleveland:

So if the Browns win Sunday on the road against the New York Jets (1–13) and the Steelers lose Sunday at home to the Colts (10–4), the division title will be on the line when Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh in the regular-season finale on Jan. 3 at FirstEnergy Stadium.

NFL draft order:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1–13)
2. New York Jets (1–13)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (3–10–1)
4. Carolina Panthers (4–10)
5. Atlanta Falcons (4–10)
6. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans, 4–10)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1)
8. Dallas Cowboys (5–9)
9. L.A. Chargers (5–9)
10. New York Giants (5–9)
11. Detroit Lions (5–9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (5–9)
13. Denver Broncos (5–9)